J-20 goes operational

Military aircraft - Post cold war aircraft, including for example B-2, Gripen, F-18E/F Super Hornet, Rafale, and Typhoon.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post07 Nov 2017, 08:14

wrightwing wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:

The J-20 is said to be in production. (LRIP?) So, why couldn't it reach IOC by 2021???

Which, is not to say even if it does it will have anything close to 600! :wink:

For the same reason that the Su-57 won't reach IOC by 2021, even though it's in "production."

A- the aircraft and its systems aren't mature enough
B- in order to be considered IOC, you need sufficient trained pilots, maintainers, logistical supply chain/spare parts, sufficient operationally representative aircraft (with weapons testing complete)
C- the IOC squadron(s), need to have undergone multiple training exercises, to develop TTPs on how to properly employ the new capabilities.
D- what's the status on weapons integration and testing? Have there been any separation tests? Live fires?


A Western Aircraft I would totally agree. Yet, China is really pushing and they likely will cut corners the US wouldn't even dream of....Nonetheless, nobody really knows except the Chinese of course. So, I guess we will just have to wait and see.
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wrightwing

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Unread post07 Nov 2017, 16:17

Corsair1963 wrote:
wrightwing wrote:
Corsair1963 wrote:

The J-20 is said to be in production. (LRIP?) So, why couldn't it reach IOC by 2021???

Which, is not to say even if it does it will have anything close to 600! :wink:

For the same reason that the Su-57 won't reach IOC by 2021, even though it's in "production."

A- the aircraft and its systems aren't mature enough
B- in order to be considered IOC, you need sufficient trained pilots, maintainers, logistical supply chain/spare parts, sufficient operationally representative aircraft (with weapons testing complete)
C- the IOC squadron(s), need to have undergone multiple training exercises, to develop TTPs on how to properly employ the new capabilities.
D- what's the status on weapons integration and testing? Have there been any separation tests? Live fires?


A Western Aircraft I would totally agree. Yet, China is really pushing and they likely will cut corners the US wouldn't even dream of....Nonetheless, nobody really knows except the Chinese of course. So, I guess we will just have to wait and see.

Cutting corners is how you end up with a shoddy product, that doesn't come close to meeting KPPs. The USAF could've declared F-35 IOC at Block 1A, and accepted a lot of risk, but the aircraft wouldn't be very credible. You've seen all the fixes that have been made to the F-35, due to issues discovered during testing. What are the odds that China got everything right on the J-20? The F-35 has over 100,000 flight hours, there are over 200 aircraft, they've been in numerous exercises, real world deployments, and we're still tweaking them. That's why I'm skeptical of optimistic schedules for J-20/Su-57. They have fewer R&D aircraft flying, than we have in fleet squadrons.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post08 Nov 2017, 04:56

wrightwing wrote:

Cutting corners is how you end up with a shoddy product, that doesn't come close to meeting KPPs. The USAF could've declared F-35 IOC at Block 1A, and accepted a lot of risk, but the aircraft wouldn't be very credible. You've seen all the fixes that have been made to the F-35, due to issues discovered during testing. What are the odds that China got everything right on the J-20? The F-35 has over 100,000 flight hours, there are over 200 aircraft, they've been in numerous exercises, real world deployments, and we're still tweaking them. That's why I'm skeptical of optimistic schedules for J-20/Su-57. They have fewer R&D aircraft flying, than we have in fleet squadrons.



Well, again I think your comparing a Western Process vs Chinese and/or Russian ones! Good example is the latter two have no problem flying early developmental Su-57's and J-20's at Airshows. The US would "never" risk a new fighter at such an early stage of development. Even if the risk was very small....

In addition the F-35 is entering service and numbers are ramping up quickly. If, Russia and China don't get on the stick quickly. They will be totally overwhelmed...My guess is they (especially China) will be pushing the envelope right to the limit..... :wink:

"IMHO"
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wrightwing

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Unread post08 Nov 2017, 06:39

They can declare operational status whenever they want. I'm just saying that it should be taken with a grain of salt, as it's nowhere comparable to what we mean by operational.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post08 Nov 2017, 06:54

wrightwing wrote:They can declare operational status whenever they want. I'm just saying that it should be taken with a grain of salt, as it's nowhere comparable to what we mean by operational.



Clearly, the J-20 hasn't reached IOC. What we are seeing is just a modest number of LRIP Aircraft. That will be used for further Testing....on the way to IOC and full scale production. We will just have to agree to disagree when the latter may come about???
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strykerxo

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Unread post09 Nov 2017, 02:49

I recall the J-10 going operational, and everybody went Huh, what! :doh: 400 planes later
You can't shot what you can't see - Unknown
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Corsair1963

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Unread post09 Nov 2017, 07:08

The F-35 is ramping up quickly and will be building well over a hundred every year post 2020. That would put extreme pressure on China to increase production of the J-20 and/or J-31. Otherwise, she will be hopelessly outclassed.....
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Corsair1963

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Unread post09 Nov 2017, 07:11

Corsair1963 wrote:The F-35 is ramping up quickly and will be building well over a hundred every year post 2020. That would put extreme pressure on China to increase production of the J-20 and/or J-31. Otherwise, she will be hopelessly outclassed.....




Which, is why the J-31 is so "critical" to the Chinese Military. As it must be able to mass produce. A capable yet affordable 5th Generation Fighter in quantity!
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weasel1962

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Unread post09 Nov 2017, 08:00

Even at its peak the far cheaper J-10s are produced at 30+ per year. I would think J-20 production rates would be something similar.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post09 Nov 2017, 11:12

weasel1962 wrote:Even at its peak the far cheaper J-10s are produced at 30+ per year. I would think J-20 production rates would be something similar.



Honestly, 30+ a year would be low for even the J-20 let alone the J-31. Which, in fact will be China's F-35.... :wink:



Of course I am talking once they reach full scale production.
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wrightwing

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Unread post09 Nov 2017, 20:31

Corsair1963 wrote:
weasel1962 wrote:Even at its peak the far cheaper J-10s are produced at 30+ per year. I would think J-20 production rates would be something similar.



Honestly, 30+ a year would be low for even the J-20 let alone the J-31. Which, in fact will be China's F-35.... :wink:



Of course I am talking once they reach full scale production.

I'd be surprised if they ever build more than 30 J-20s per year, even at FRP. I think it's more lilely to see Raptor like numbers, rather than 500+.
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disconnectedradical

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Unread post10 Nov 2017, 06:39

A better picture.
Image

The J-20 seems to not have a gun.
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hythelday

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Unread post10 Nov 2017, 17:33

disconnectedradical wrote:The J-20 seems to not have a gun.


BOOM! Close the "vs" thread. F-35A equipped with the gun wins every time! Some guy who saw Vietnam documentary on youtube told me so :roll:
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weasel1962

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Unread post11 Nov 2017, 04:09

The J-20 is suggested to have a gun. The location of the gunport can be seen from the pic above as the panel on its back between the canard and wing.
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mixelflick

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Unread post11 Nov 2017, 19:13

Where is Pierre Sprey to decry the size and complexity of the J-20?

Seems like it's the antithesis of "his" LWF must have's... :)
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