More F-22's could really happen?

Anything goes, as long as it is about the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor
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loke

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Unread post13 Jul 2017, 20:00

vilters wrote:First question for a weapons system is: Who are you gonna fight?
Second question is : What does he have?

First answer is simple : There is no country in the world that wants to get in trouble in these hard economic times. Russia does not have the money, and China is growing but has to feed its people.

Second answer is : What do they have? Not a lot by USA standards. Not in quantity and certainly not in quality.
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The next 20-30 years or so, the USA is safe.
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Expect the "next" big conflict when oil supply's become rare and everybody starts chasing the last drop of oil.

That's the conflict to prepare for.
Better leave the money in the bank the first 50-100 years or so, but certainly continue R&D to be ready when the time comes.

Regarding the oil: Completely wrong. Google "paris agreement" and "shale oil". The socalled "experts" predicted that oil would be back at 60 USD already last year -- Loke predicted this would not happen. Currently oil is below 50 USD and allthough some "experts" still predict it will eventually go up Loke is telling you this is Wrong.

There is plenty of oil left in the US, Russia, Norway, the ME, Brazil, Africa, SE Asia, etc... in addition the greenhouse effect is pushing the whole world (with the notable exception of Trumpian USA) towards new sources of energy. Electric engines will replace internal combution engines in cars, and starting from 2018/2019 oil consumption will either drop or at least stabilize; starting from 2020/2021 oil consumption will start to drop. China, EU and Japan will be the main drivers. Trumpian US will try to stick to the combustian engine but compared to China, EU and Japan the US simply does not have that much clout.


As for your statement that the US is "safe" for the next 20-30 years -- I don't think anybody can make accurate predictions that far into the future. A lot of Americans have underestimated tiny isolated North Korea, no doubt many Americans will underestimate what China may be able to achive during the next 20 years.

Anyways I agree starting F-22 production is silly at this point, much better to accelerate 6 AAMs in the F-35, and accelerate a few other F-35 options that will strengthen the AA F-35 capabilities.

And keep working on the "6th gen" stuff of course. I belive it may well be needed within the next 20-30 years or so...

On verra.
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vilters

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Unread post13 Jul 2017, 22:17

@ loke
Respectfully;

Don't worry about that clown in North Korea.
If he should fire in harm? He might as well commit suicide himself.
It is just a barking porno-clown (and needs to be to keep his population under control)
Ha-ha-ha-ha-, I "LOVE" how they "S H O U T" the news at you on their national TV. LOL.

USA is about 30 years ahead in global aviation tech on the Russians.
And while the Chinese are pretty good in avionix, they are still no-where in metallurgy and engine design.

Nah, ther's nothing to really be scared about until the gas or oil runs out.

South America might become "hot" with all their corruption, but they have close to non-existing military tech. Brazil is the only one that has some aviation industry to speak of.
Same goes for Africa that will become more and more hungry for food and water, but here again, no military to speak about.
India and China will keep each others in balance, and Russia will go farming when they run out of natural gas.

Who's building airplanes?
- The USA
- Russia
- China

I don't even count the small countries with the low numbers. (They only count for their own economy and politicians)
- UK (never understood what caused their HUGE advantage in the 50's and 60's to fall so far behind)
- France ("was" independent, out of NATO, and could make some sales, but the numbers stay low)
And "what after the Rafale???? It is pretty silent over there too.
- Sweden (trying and failing)

Europe as in "EUROPE"?
Oh, we need at least 10 years of political discussions to find out that we disagree more then we agreed to agree.

Some other "loners" like India and the Tejas.
Japan that's making an effort from time to time.
Turkey (no clue what that regime will bring, but dictators end up where they always end up. So do their "projects".)

Nah, let's continue our R&D at ease, have some hot coffee and a biscuit, and we'r safe for the next 50-100-150 years.
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loke

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Unread post14 Jul 2017, 11:51

My main point was really that it is difficult to make predictions, and especially abouto the future.

Currently China is behind the US however there may be some surprises in the next 20-30 years that can change things considerably.

It seems to me that China is not just at the same level as the US, but potentially even a bit ahead, in some fields, e.g., when it comes to quantum mechanics technology. This is very basic research and may not find practical applications, -- but then again it may, it is probably too early to tell.

Assumptions is the mother of all fuck-ups...
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XanderCrews

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Unread post14 Jul 2017, 15:44

Loke, I wouldn't waste time with vilters. Even if you get him to concede a point, it's like his memory disappears and you get the same post a few days later.

This is the same guy who said the best weapon in the world is a piper cub armed with hand grenades (not an exaggeration, check the post history) before moving on to P-47s vs ISIS. And the latest was 737s painted with "coca cola" and secretly armed with smart bombs.

I hope he's just drinking absynth
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vilters

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Unread post14 Jul 2017, 16:00

Cheap to pull parts of posts out of perspective.

Nope, the bright red Coca-Cola Boeing was an amraam truck...

And perhaps you did not notice but the USA is looking for a low cost, "head in the dirt", Tucano or T-6 to fight terrorists like IS. Call them the modern variant of the P-47.

You simple can not fight terrorists from 30.000 ft, or it will take ages and a gazillion dollars.
Hey? We can also continue in Syria for the next 20-50 years you know. And why not spend ALL taxpayers money there?

Nope, you need something cheaper, with lots of guns that can turn on a dime to chase those clowns on rusty trucks.
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condor1970

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Unread post15 Jul 2017, 14:55

Something dawned on me that I don't think a lot people thought of. Years ago, a friend of mine told about some materials testing that Boeing was doing on F-22 components. It was part of some testing program to look at ways to make newer and stronger carbon nano-fiber composites that weighed significantly less than what the F-22 currently uses (ie. 90's tech). He was telling me that some of the newer composites were so good by comparison, they could shave thousands of pounds off the airframe, and actually be stronger and have a longer stressful lifespan than the current composites.
Anyway, since Lockheed said they would prefer not to reopen the F-22 line, for fear it would draw too many of their assets away from the F-35 line, Boeing might be a good option. Boeing did manufacture the entire wing section of the F-22 to begin with. Since Boeing is looking at slowly closing down F/A-18 and F-15 lines with the F-35 taking over as a primary strike platform, those manufacturing lines that Boeing is struggling to keep open, could be retooled to build and upgraded version of the F-22.
I say this, because the Phantom Works is rapidly becoming known as the real modern equivalent of the Skunk Works. Phantom Works has really accomplished a lot of fast theory to production aircraft, showing how new ideas can be employed quickly and affordably vs the bureaucratic money pit Lockheed has turned into.
I think it would be very interesting if Boeing decided to dump the "Silent Eagle" idea, and throw it's manufacturing ability of the F/A-18 and F-15 lines to build an advanced version of the F-22 for an even cheaper price than what Lockheed offered. This is of course, no easy feat, but Boeing does have a huge chunk of that type of infrastructure in place, just sitting there waiting for a new purpose.
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juretrn

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Unread post15 Jul 2017, 15:40

condor1970 wrote:Boeing ... to build an advanced version of the F-22

I'm sure LM will be super willing to give up some of the most prized IP in aviation industry to Boeing no sweat.
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southernphantom

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Unread post15 Jul 2017, 18:50

juretrn wrote:
condor1970 wrote:Boeing ... to build an advanced version of the F-22

I'm sure LM will be super willing to give up some of the most prized IP in aviation industry to Boeing no sweat.


I see Boeing building new F-22 wings to be retrofitted to existing airframes long before it starts rolling new Raptors out of St Louis. One is feasible, the other is (sadly) a pipe dream.
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XanderCrews

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Unread post15 Jul 2017, 20:00

condor1970 wrote: I say this, because the Phantom Works is rapidly becoming known as the real modern equivalent of the Skunk Works. Phantom Works has really accomplished a lot of fast theory to production aircraft, showing how new ideas can be employed quickly and affordably vs the bureaucratic money pit Lockheed has turned into.
.


Lol I don't even know where to begin. You must live in one hell of a bubble. Boeing lost X-32, next gen bomber and struggling to field a refueling tanker. In the meantime their beaurcrats decided to set off a trade war In Canada over the little C series.

They've also been making huge claims on composites for 3 decades now, with varied results. Please don't think it's the holy grail. In some cases LM was deliberately avoiding Boeing composites knowing they weren't up to par yet.
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SpudmanWP

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Unread post16 Jul 2017, 21:46

Virtually all current "composite" materials in fighters are "Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer (CFRP)". Your friend was maybe talking about "Carbon Nanotube Reinforced Polymer (CNRP). Here is a handy chart showing the difference.

Image

As you can see from the density vs strength numbers that this would truly be a revolutionary material if it could be used in large portions of the airframe. LM has already begun to replace CFRP parts on the F-35 with CNRP and the last sentence in the quote gives LM a HUGE advantage in any upcoming contest unless Boeing can do the same.

A thermoset epoxy reinforced by carbon nanotubes will replace carbon fibre as the material used to produce F-35 wingtip fairings beginning with low rate initial production (LRIP)-4 aircraft, said Travis Earles, a manager for corporate nanotechnology initiatives.

Meanwhile, the same carbon nanotube reinforced polymer (CNRP) material is being considered to replace about 100 components made with other composites or metals throughout the F-35's airframe, he said.

The shift to CNRP as an airframe material has been anticipated ever since carbon nanotubes were discovered in 1991. It is widely considered one of the strongest materials ever invented - several times stronger than carbon fibre reinforced plastic (CFRP), yet lighter by about 25-30%.

...

Lockheed, however, has invented a process that dramatically reduces the cost to build carbon nanotube composites for aircraft structures, Earles said. The new wingtip fairing is being made for one-tenth of the cost of the equivalent CFRP component, he said.
More at the jump

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... es-357223/
"The early bird gets the worm but the second mouse gets the cheese."
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Unread post17 Jul 2017, 15:10

More F-22's would be wonderful, but you guys have taught me about fiscal realities and the "punch" our other fighters have.

What is bothersome is this: Growing up in the 1980's, it was very clear to me that between the F-14, F-15 and F-16, we held a great qualitative edge vs. the Russians/Chinese. No Mig-21, 23 or 25 could compare and that's been born out in direct, head to head combat among those types.

I also recall seeing the first satellite photos of the Mig-29 and SU-27 photos for the first time (Ramanskoy)? These two collectively closed the gap - a LOT. Today, I'm confident we know how to deal with Mig-29's, but the advanced Flanker derivatives are right up there with our latest F-15's and 16's. The Raptor of course is on a whole 'nother level, but it's a tiny force.

The F-35? I must admit its latest moves at the Paris Airshow were impressive. Given they'll be thousands produced, I'm hoping it'll dispatch of these Sukhoi's and even the PAK FA and J-20. But it's a wildcard/unknown right now. The Russian and Chinese jets promise to be stealthy too, with certain advantages in parts of the envelope. Until such time as the F-35 starts downing Mig's/Sukhoi's wholesale though, I feel uneasy about establishing air superiority in a large scale/multi-front conflict.

Let's hope the PCA gets here sooner, rather than later..
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nutshell

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Unread post18 Jul 2017, 00:10

Nanotubes from LM are also conductive, which means you'd wire AND skin your aircraft.

Moreover, nanotubes act as fiber optics, which translates in a monstrous amount of bandwith.

Imho they can also, or better yet, those tubes will be used as a meaning to achieve radar immunity, since i think is potentially possible to drive radio waves thru the whole skin; generating virtually 0 radio feedback.
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popcorn

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Unread post18 Jul 2017, 00:40

"When a fifth-generation fighter meets a fourth-generation fighter—the [latter] dies,”
CSAF Gen. Mark Welsh
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