F-16V for Taiwan?

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jessmo112

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Unread post17 Aug 2020, 22:23

weasel1962 wrote:Specifically, what's changed from a couple of years ago is China's PLAMC building up 6 brigades as a landing force. This would be carried by the 8 Type 71 LPDs and at least 2 LHDs, the first of which has been painted and looks to launch before year end, the 2nd is half complete. They will also have at least 2 CVBGs to escort the landing force.

The PLAAF airborne corp has also reorganized into the brigade modular system with 6 brigades, of which at least 2 will be air assault capable. Add to that a few brigades of highly trained specops that can land in a variety of ways.

With a coastline of 1000-1566km, ROC's 30+ conscript brigades could be each defending a sector up to 40km wide. The landing force will be concentrated against a specific sector i.e. several brigades against 1 sector. If a beachhead can be established, China could land troops via LST or simply float a number of mobile docks that can dock and offload STUFT-ed ferries/merchies, with the capacity to send 10 brigades at a time, they don't need to capture a port. In the old days, they could predict where landing beaches could be. Today, LCACs like the 4 Zubrs China possess could navigate mudflats to land troops anywhere along the coastline or helos doing heli-insertions elsewhere. That would be supported by MLRS brigades that don't need to land as they can shoot from the other side of the straits.

In the eastern sector facing Taiwan, at least 13 of 18 combined arms brigades (CAB) in 71-73 GA are amphibious/air assault capable. Some like 179 CAB is a specially trained landing PLA brigade. Some like 3 CAB are air assault trained. Some like 124 CAB were created from Amphibious mech infantry divisions. These can be reinforced from group armies in the southern and central theatre. That's what's facing ROC today.


The problem is complex and multifaceted.

1. The U.S. is bound by law to provide for the Defense of Taiwan. It would be a geopolitical blunder to let the island be taken.

2. The PLA has to take the island before U.S. forces show up even in small numbers.

3. 1 ohio class sub or a squadren of F-35s would rip the LHD or the landing ships to shreds.

4. Even if you manage to establish a beachhead. There is the real risk of U.S. subs or tac air totally cutting off your supplies or dismantling your landing ships.
LCACs and all of the other stuff are soft targets.

I would actually rather them get a foot hold in Taiwan.
I think it would be the beginning of the end for the Chicoms if 20,000 Chinese troops were starved or captured.
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madrat

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Unread post18 Aug 2020, 00:58

Failure is self-immolation ala felo de se.
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weasel1962

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Unread post18 Aug 2020, 03:41

Landing ships aren't the only options today. Airborne/heliborne assault included. How many helos/transport planes does the PLAAF have?
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jessmo112

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Unread post18 Aug 2020, 05:06

Heliborn assualt over the most dangerous and densely packed IADS on earth? I almost feel sorry for them.
What does a Pac-3 missile feel like when it hits your body?
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weasel1962

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Unread post18 Aug 2020, 05:30

jessmo112 wrote:Heliborn assualt over the most dangerous and densely packed IADS on earth? I almost feel sorry for them.
What does a Pac-3 missile feel like when it hits your body?


I'd bet the Iraqis felt that way in 1991. Crash course on China's SEAD capabilities required. What does someone in the SAM battery feel when cluster-f-ed?
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jessmo112

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Unread post18 Aug 2020, 19:48

The Chinese have a HARM copy, but Im not sure that is enough for proper sead, on Taiwan proper.
Hence the over reliance on stand off weapons and ballastic missiles in there doctrine.
There are alot of ways the U.S. and allies can disrupt this.

The main issue is that after Hong kong even neighbors that are normally friendly are leary of land grabs, and Chinas lustful ambitions.
If the U.S. cannot stop the Chinese from taking Taiwan can Russia protect vladivostok?
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weasel1962

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Unread post18 Aug 2020, 23:43

To understand sead, one needs to understand electronic spectrum mapping, real time monitoring and the ability to prosecute. One doesn't actually need harm (kh-31s/kd-88), harpy/uavs, ground jammers, air jammers or other similar weapons at China's disposal to conduct sead (although it helps). A simple mlrs round can do the job with sufficient intel.

Amphs only to take China? China only relies on standoff weaponry and TBMs? I think a broader understanding of China capabilities, the advantages of it's proximity to Taiwan, its investments on ES mapping, real time monitoring and the multitude of capabilities at Chinese disposal may yield a different conclusion.
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jessmo112

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Unread post19 Aug 2020, 01:07

weasel1962 wrote:To understand sead, one needs to understand electronic spectrum mapping, real time monitoring and the ability to prosecute. One doesn't actually need harm (kh-31s/kd-88), harpy/uavs, ground jammers, air jammers or other similar weapons at China's disposal to conduct sead (although it helps). A simple mlrs round can do the job with sufficient intel.

Amphs only to take China? China only relies on standoff weaponry and TBMs? I think a broader understanding of China capabilities, the advantages of it's proximity to Taiwan, its investments on ES mapping, real time monitoring and the multitude of capabilities at Chinese disposal may yield a different conclusion.


Do you think Taiwan is dumb enough to Radiate in war mode? Are the Chinese that familiar with the Patriot?
China can go a number of different ways, but all roads lead to a U S. Intervention, and probably Thousands of Marines and F-35Bs shoring up Taiwans defense.
The stakes are high. China has invested its current regime in taking Taiwan. A failure would probably mean a change of leadership. The the with the U.S.
A failure to defend Taiwan or a defeat would signal to other countries that the American empire in Asia is finished.
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weasel1962

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Unread post19 Aug 2020, 04:45

And the assumption is that China is dumb enough not to know that and have counter-measures in place. The point is that one does need to radiate to shoot LR-SAMs like Patriots or TK. It takes time to detect, classify and prosecute. Any real objective understanding of China's capabilities will easily reflect whether China has that capability or not. The advantage to China includes:

(a) Taiwan has to defend everywhere (32000 km2 and 1500+ km of coastline), the Chinese only have to attack 1 or 2 sectors.
(b) The Chinese get to decide when.

Sure some people might think that 1 sqn of 12 F-35Bs based at Iwakuni which is the only F-22/35 sqn based in theater will be able to destroy the entire PLAAF & PLAN single handedly even if Iwakuni is outside unrefuelled combat radius of Taiwan. But the reality of basing & intervention is a lot more complex than some people realize.

Strangely some delusional Chinese think beating the Americans over Taiwan will effectively signal the end of American dominance. One can only hope they make the same kinds of assumptions like how their TBMs can sink the entire USN.
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Corsair1963

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Unread post20 Aug 2020, 04:25

$50 - 60 Million for F-16V...


If, you care to translate it...... :wink:


https://grandfleet.info/us-related/f-16 ... ion-range/
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jessmo112

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Unread post20 Aug 2020, 14:37

weasel1962 wrote:And the assumption is that China is dumb enough not to know that and have counter-measures in place. The point is that one does need to radiate to shoot LR-SAMs like Patriots or TK. It takes time to detect, classify and prosecute. Any real objective understanding of China's capabilities will easily reflect whether China has that capability or not. The advantage to China includes:

(a) Taiwan has to defend everywhere (32000 km2 and 1500+ km of coastline), the Chinese only have to attack 1 or 2 sectors.
(b) The Chinese get to decide when.

Sure some people might think that 1 sqn of 12 F-35Bs based at Iwakuni which is the only F-22/35 sqn based in theater will be able to destroy the entire PLAAF & PLAN single handedly even if Iwakuni is outside unrefuelled combat radius of Taiwan. But the reality of basing & intervention is a lot more complex than some people realize.

Strangely some delusional Chinese think beating the Americans over Taiwan will effectively signal the end of American dominance. One can only hope they make the same kinds of assumptions like how their TBMs can sink the entire USN.


They have to defend every where yes, but you forget a few points.

1. The sea is unforgiving, and there will be only a limited time during the year that she will cooperate.

2. China can attack everywhere but the east side of Taiwan is some treacherous coast line.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes ... asion/amp/

3. Lcacs and slow transports are soft targets.

4. The Chinese need to take the island before the Americans arrive.

5. Just a few Ohio class subs or a los Angeles would make the Chinese landing a nightmare.

6. F-35s can be embarked on ships and brought into range.

This adventure will likely cause the Chinese their regime.
Id like to ask you why do you think that China hesitates?
Is it because they are polite?
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weasel1962

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Unread post21 Aug 2020, 01:20

jessmo112 wrote:1. The sea is unforgiving, and there will be only a limited time during the year that she will cooperate.


Airborne/heliborne assault won't depend on sea conditions. ROC will lose if they only defend depending on the sea conditions.

jessmo112 wrote:2. China can attack everywhere but the east side of Taiwan is some treacherous coast line.


Airborne/heliborne assault doesn't have to create LZs at the coast. ROC will lose if they are only defending coastlines.

jessmo112 wrote:https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/07/10/the-taiwanese-island-fortress-that-could-halt-a-chinese-invasion/amp/


Quoting David Axe doesn't exactly gain much credibility on this board. ROC will lose if they depend on what David Axe says.

jessmo112 wrote:3. Lcacs and slow transports are soft targets.


Airborne/heliborne assault don't depend on LCACs and slow transports. Also y'know why why US uses battlegroup/convoys. Why having CVs, LHDs won't make a difference? Cos they are manned by chinese?

jessmo112 wrote:5. Just a few Ohio class subs or a los Angeles would make the Chinese landing a nightmare.


It takes time to sail from Guam. How exactly are these going to tackle an airborne/heliborne assault or an air corridor?

jessmo112 wrote:6. F-35s can be embarked on ships and brought into range.


Oh yes, the Chinese are just going to roll over.

jessmo112 wrote:This adventure will likely cause the Chinese their regime.
Id like to ask you why do you think that China hesitates?
Is it because they are polite?


Its not 1940 anymore. Even in 1940, US used airborne for D-day.

Much like how Korea costs the PLA their regime in 1950 right? A better understanding of how China thinks would be needed. Now remind me again what exactly did I forget?
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jessmo112

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Unread post21 Aug 2020, 14:09

960x0.jpg
Weasel, what part of "This is one of the Most Dangerous IADS in the world do you not understand?
Even if you kill the Patriots, and Skybow you still have man pads to deal with. There is no conceivable way you can take the island only using air assets.
You must constantly supply the troops.
Taiwan currently has 2000+ stingers this makes a helicopter assault Operation Market Garden 2.0
Keep in mind that you have an island garrison in the straight that will be a tough nut to crack.
The garrison is armed with cruise missile batteries and SAMS. You have to take the island garrison before the invasion proper Penghu island alone has 60k troops dug in. China doesn't have enough air transports to move
That many men in a single air drop.
If you dont take the trip wire islands the invasion will fail.
These senarios have been war gamed to death by the powers that be. The simple truth is that if China thought they could easily take the islands they would have did it.
A successful invasion is possible but at great cost.
Please try and keep up.
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Unread post21 Aug 2020, 18:32

jessmo112 wrote:
5. Just a few Ohio class subs or a los Angeles would make the Chinese landing a nightmare.



Ohio if use nukes yes but then it is thermonuclear war with country which have at least two times more people in rural area then whole population of US.

Without nukes, subs can't do nothing, trying to stop invasion with torpedos would be suicide for US nuclear subs.

Using tomahawks will not do much either because there would be lot of defenses (naval SAM and fighters in air) and landing crafts aren't ideal target for antiship tomahawk (I don't even know do subs have them at all).

On other hand Chinese invasion of Taiwan is very unlikely, because Taiwan have huge population and shores aren't good at all for landings, so even if China wipe out most of Taiwan military equipment which it can, Chinese will need to fight of lot of defenders armed with quite good infantry weapons, and to defend off with small invasion force.

What Taiwan is afraid of is naval blockade by China, Taiwan agricultural production is tiny for its population.
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Unread post21 Aug 2020, 23:11

Remember the U.S. has 4 Ohio class subs SSGNs that have 150 tomahawks each. They have had the Nuclear weapons removed and support only conventional cruise missiles.
4 of them is enough to saturate the ships, and the assembly areas with cruise missiles from a thousand miles away. 616 cruise missiles is at saturation level and
just the shear numbers will ensure that the targets are hit. There are also anti-ship Tomahawks now.
All you would need is to kill the LHDs or hit some landing craft. The Ohios could launch the full complement of cruise missiles, and then move in closer to torpedo anything in the strait. Weasel mentioned it taking a while to sail from Guam.
The Truth is that there are likely Ohios sitting in range of China now.
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