How many F-35's does the UK really need???

Discuss the F-35 Lightning II
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by Corsair1963 » 10 Jan 2019, 05:08

With all of this talk about the RAF possibly getting some F-35A's. Got me wondering how many Lightnings does the Royal Navy and Royal Air Force really need????

Here's my split (compromise) between the RN and RAF.

1-Squadron 17R (mix F-35A/B)
1-Squadron OCU (mix F-35A/B)

4-Squadrons F-35B RN
2-Squadrons F-35B RAF

3-Squadrons F-35A RAF

RNRAF.jpg


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by marsavian » 10 Jan 2019, 05:15

I don't see any more than two F-35A squadrons specifically to replace the two Tranche 1 Typhoon squadrons leaving about 100 F-35B for the RN. However as BREXIT is heading to a messy chaotic no deal conclusion in just over two months time I wouldn't bank on any more than the 48 already agreed because there is no telling what shape the UK economy will be in the future if it drops out of the EU without a soft landing.


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by Corsair1963 » 10 Jan 2019, 05:23

marsavian wrote:I don't see any more than two F-35A squadrons specifically to replace the two Tranche 1 Typhoon squadrons leaving about 100 F-35B for the RN. However as BREXIT is heading to a messy chaotic no deal conclusion in just over two months time I wouldn't bank on any more than the 48 already agreed because there is no telling what shape the UK economy will be in the future if it drops out of the EU without a soft landing.



Yet, wouldn't the F-35A's really be to replace the Tornado's not the early Typhoons?


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by old_rn » 10 Jan 2019, 08:19

Corsair1963 wrote:
marsavian wrote:I don't see any more than two F-35A squadrons specifically to replace the two Tranche 1 Typhoon squadrons leaving about 100 F-35B for the RN. However as BREXIT is heading to a messy chaotic no deal conclusion in just over two months time I wouldn't bank on any more than the 48 already agreed because there is no telling what shape the UK economy will be in the future if it drops out of the EU without a soft landing.



Yet, wouldn't the F-35A's really be to replace the Tornado's not the early Typhoons?


If the aim is to replace the Tornado role would not the RAF do better with F35C. Longer range and probe already fitted?


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by weasel1962 » 10 Jan 2019, 09:51

Well, its going to be a bit difficult replacing the Tornados with any other aircraft on a sqn level. 23 RAF sqns flew the Tornado. 9 F-3 (incl 1 that also fly F-2), 5 GR-1 and 8 GR-4s. The GR-1s were retired in 1999. The F-3 retired in Mar 2011. Of the final 8 GR-4 sqns:

2 sqn stood down on 31 Mar 2015 and stood up as a Typhoon sqn on 1 Apr 2015.
13 sqn stood down in May 2011 and stood up as a MQ-9 reaper sqn in Oct 2012.
14 sqn disbanded in June 2011 and stood up as a shadow R1 sqn in Oct 2011
617 sqn disbanded in 2014 and has stood up in Apr 2018 as a F-35B sqn.

15 Sqn, which was the OCU, was disbanded on 31 Mar 2017. As this is an OCU, there are no plans to reactivate the unit.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-no ... d-39304528

12 sqn flew its last tornado in Dec 2017, lodged its colours with Queen on 2 Feb 2018 until its return as a joint UK-Qatari training unit with Typhoons this year. A standing up ceremony for the sqn as held on 24 Jul 2018.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/join ... ip-deepens

9 Sqn will stand up as a Typhoon sqn at RAF Lossiemouth this year. I noted vacancy recruitments for start date of 1 Apr 2019…
https://www.northwaleschronicle.co.uk/n ... -anglesey/

31 Sqn will be the last to be decommissioned. Will be the 1st protector sqn, as announced in Jul 2018 (see link below), operating the MQ-9B, some of which has been delivered.
https://twitter.com/31sqnoc?lang=en

It is possible that some of the former F-3/GR-1 squadron colours can be raised again but don’t think that really counts as a replacement after a decade’s gap…


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by marsavian » 10 Jan 2019, 14:22

Corsair1963 wrote:
marsavian wrote:I don't see any more than two F-35A squadrons specifically to replace the two Tranche 1 Typhoon squadrons leaving about 100 F-35B for the RN. However as BREXIT is heading to a messy chaotic no deal conclusion in just over two months time I wouldn't bank on any more than the 48 already agreed because there is no telling what shape the UK economy will be in the future if it drops out of the EU without a soft landing.



Yet, wouldn't the F-35A's really be to replace the Tornado's not the early Typhoons?


Typhoon and F-35B can do that easily enough. This is all about the RAF wanting the most specialized version of the F-35 for their needs. Well they may have to pay a price for that in terms of replacing their own squadrons rather than impinging on the RN carrier fleet inventory. I suspect they will accept less Tempest for that and the Tranche 1 Typhoon will definitely be long in the tooth by the 2030s and needing replacing first. Also allows for any delay in Tempest development as F-35A/B and Typhoon/AESA/Meteor will be a potent force in the 2030s leaving Tempest for the 2040s. There is also a possibility that it might be F-35C rather than F-35A if they prefer to add arrestor hooks to the carriers rather than booms to the tankers because the current Voyagers don't have booms.


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by blindpilot » 10 Jan 2019, 16:50

marsavian wrote:.... There is also a possibility that it might be F-35C rather than F-35A if they prefer ... rather than booms to the tankers because the current Voyagers don't have booms.


While true, Britain will eventually need to add booms to some of the Voyagers for C-17's and P-8's, even if all they get are "Bees". The MRTT can do this relatively easily, Aussie and other KC-30s have them.

MHO,
BP


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by marsavian » 10 Jan 2019, 19:08

Fair enough, half of them (7) have a center fuselage free so I suspect they will get the modifications eventually.


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by talkitron » 26 Aug 2020, 17:22

The UK may cut is purchases of F-35Bs in half, from around 140 to around 70, according to a leak to a reporter for The Times. The RAF's focus would then be on the UK's Tempest project. Think tank expert Justin Bronk: "He was sceptical Tempest (due to come into service from 2035) will outperform F-35, given US $$$ investment."

One caveat for alarmism here is that the public number of 140 might have based on replacing old F-35Bs with newer ones once their airframe hours were used up. Maybe the new, subtler plan is to not fly F-35Bs as much in order to not use up their hours.

Good news for USMC personnel who want to deploy on HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brit ... -nk2hfns8c


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by marauder2048 » 26 Aug 2020, 19:11

These are the same sources talking about the UK retiring its MBT force.
It's like every AOA ever.


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by quicksilver » 26 Aug 2020, 21:44

UK services always whispering-about the landscape for one parochial interest or another.


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by talkitron » 26 Aug 2020, 21:49

I think both dropping MBTs and reducing F-35B orders are 60% likely to happen. UK defense procurement is a huge mess and value is rarely acquired for money.


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by marauder2048 » 26 Aug 2020, 21:59

talkitron wrote:I think both dropping MBTs and reducing F-35B orders are 60% likely to happen. UK defense procurement is a huge mess and value is rarely acquired for money.


How do your reach that likelihood?

We've seen so many "the sky is falling; gut everything" UK MOD AoAs over the last decade plus...


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by magitsu » 26 Aug 2020, 22:04


It brings up a good point. The UK's commitment to F-35 development was mere 2 billion and they got this much work. What can they realistically expect when the Tempest has received by now with similar 2 billions, but is missing the 100+ billion that the US put into the F-35? Where does this project expect to get even a third of it? Until this is addressed, slick pictures that suggest Tempest becoming superior to F-35 in multiple areas are a bad joke.

Realistically it will look more like Gripen C->E or Hornet->Super if there's no money to develop brand new major components.


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by weasel1962 » 27 Aug 2020, 01:43

Yah, the US should have gone it alone and would have got all export proceeds and spent less than $100billi...*but wait*


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