Israel Attacks Syria with F-16s and F-35s

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Gums

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Unread post27 Dec 2018, 19:46

Salute!

Gotta admire the guidance units on those bombs, huh? The spacing and impact pattern looks almost like from from a video game. I am very impressed.

Having dropped more than handful of the MK-84's, and maybe a few dozen MK-83's, and over a thousand Mk-81/82 's, those craters are likely Mk-84 with a quick fuze, like .01 sec, maybe "instant". Going for blast to get those vehicles, I'd use instant or even daisy cutter fuze extenders.

Hitting 4 DMPI in such a great pattern and proximity looks more like JDAM type weapons than LGB's. Both EO/IR obscuraiton from early arrivals and such leads me to that conclusion. The CEP we have a feeling for nowadays would require super tgt coordinates, and I would not be surprised if someone walked thru the parking lot with an iPhone or better gadget and punched a button at each DMPI. When working on the JDAM PPI ( JDAM II), one of the GPS company dudes clued us in. Our ability back then was getting super accurate coordinates when using available and planned recce "assets". He said that due to slight errors modeling the Earth surface and such, that the best bet for accuracy was to use the same system that would be on the bomb and "mark" the target while walking about town, heh heh. "Oh, honey, move a little left so I can get that building behind you in the picture", click.

Very interesting raid, and I am surprised anyone mentioned a second "cleanup" mission.

Gums sends...
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Unread post27 Dec 2018, 20:20

JDAMS can have HoB enabled fuzzing (Height of Burst) via the DSU-33 series of nose sensors. If you see a JDAM or dumb bomb with a white nose, that's it.

https://www.northropgrumman.com/Capabil ... tsheet.pdf

The LJDAM's DSU-38 seeker nose has an integral HoB sensor.

A MOAB would have been nice but the Israelis only have C-130s. Maybe we should retire our B-1Bs when we go B-21 and sell them to Israel :)
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Unread post27 Dec 2018, 20:26

Gums, when out on a recent survey job, walking around with my Android phone or Garmin handheld... I would be within feet (5’ - 20’) of the object of my affection. There was similar “slop” from using Google Earth. I even used AutoCAD and calculated GPS coordinates of a point I needed to find by using survey bearings and offsets from a point I had measured with GPS centimeter accuracy. My point is... that unless I set up my survey God rod on top of the point... GPS coordinates whether handheld or from Google Earth were “on the order of”, say, 10-20’.

Which leads me to this question: would it not be possible that the mission planner simply point-and-clicked on Google Earth or some “similar” GIS-based software to calculate the target points for this mission?

I would not be surprised if it is available now, or will be in the near future, when a JTAC transmits an “image” of where he is, the F-35 then SAR-maps the locale and overlays EO & IR, sends that back to the JTAC who then “clicks” where he wants ordnance, possibly also specifying (or choosing from what’s available) ordnance type & effects desired, clicks and sends that targeting “request” back to the Lightning driver... all tied together via GPS.
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Unread post27 Dec 2018, 20:29

knowan wrote:...SDBs actually have less blast effect than a 250 lb GP bomb like the Mark 81; they only have 16 kg of explosive filler versus 44 kg for the Mark 81.
There's just no way SDBs caused 40 foot diameter craters like that.

While it's getting to where one needs a program for all the variants on SDBs, the SDB does not use the same explosive filler as the Mk81s/82s. The SDB was developed to leverage the much higher energy (and safer/more stable) AFX-757, which gives it a level of blast effect more akin to the Mk82's bigger 'Tritonal' package. Armaments Lab used to have some awesome video of the blast difference online of an early formulation that highlighted just how much faster the new stuff expanded--gave it a 'mushroom'-like fireball. Probably still out there somewhere.
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Unread post27 Dec 2018, 20:40

steve2267 wrote:Which leads me to this question: would it not be possible that the mission planner simply point-and-clicked on Google Earth or some “similar” GIS-based software to calculate the target points for this mission?


That is a normal mission planning procedure against known, fixed targets.

How else do you think they will hit targets from 60nmi away with an SDB?
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Unread post27 Dec 2018, 21:09

SpudmanWP wrote:
steve2267 wrote:Which leads me to this question: would it not be possible that the mission planner simply point-and-clicked on Google Earth or some “similar” GIS-based software to calculate the target points for this mission?


That is a normal mission planning procedure against known, fixed targets.

How else do you think they will hit targets from 60nmi away with an SDB?


I thought Gums was strongly hinting the Mossad or some other “asset” had strolled through the truck park before hand to reach that degree of accuracy. While I wouldn’t put it past the Israelis to have done just that, I was trying to ask if this level of accuracy is not achievable today with little more than Google Earth?
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Unread post27 Dec 2018, 21:16

I'm not sure the accuracy of Google Earth within "certain" areas, but it can most certainly be used to determine an objects precise location based on nearby known, fixed landmarks.

An asset may have "strolled through the park" for another reason, like determining the contents, best places to drop, etc. The Israelis have their own spy sats so they do not need to rely on Google Earth.
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Unread post27 Dec 2018, 22:16

Salute!

@Steve

I thought Gums was strongly hinting the Mossad or some other “asset” had strolled through the truck park before hand to reach that degree of accuracy.


Heh, heh. I wasn't "strongly hinting", Steve, I was outright asserting that the recce assets we now have [ or IAF] cannot provide one meter accuracy coordinates without being very close to the tgt, and using a sensor that is virtually, if not exactly, the same as the weapon system guidance kit. So Ahmed has his headgear on concealing the actual GPS antenna that is gonna be mounted on a Mk-84 in a few weeks, and hits a button on his Apple Watch or maybe clinches his right molar and the chip in the antenna records what it sees. He does this when at least 5 satelites are visible. With a stationary or slow moving antenna and another at a very well-surveyed point, Ahmed could gather signals and then post-processing would get down to centimeter accuracy. Our small company did this 25 years ago and you could track our engineer moving thru bomb craters and see changes in elevation and when he tilted the short pole that the antenna was on. The sftwe used the carrier wave of the GPS signals and the fixed antenna about a mile away. Basic surveying procedure, and it prolly isn't much better now. Even back then you could use that "differential" technique on a moving platform like a drone to get one meter accuracy, and that is what scares security folks near high value tgts that have public access, if you get my drift.

I do not think the F-35 can provide two or three meter accuracy to the rear echelon due to its own positional error and that of the employed sensor. So musta been pre-surveyed as I assert.

Even if you use the clandestine and great coordinates, you still have to enter the right coordinates into the weapon guidance unit, Hence......
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Gums sends...
Last edited by Gums on 28 Dec 2018, 17:41, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread post28 Dec 2018, 00:11

Satellite imagery is ever more available these days. Some commercial service has geolocation accuracy better than 5 meters CE90 (circular error at the 90th percentile) without ground control point.

https://www.harrisgeospatial.com/Data-I ... orldView-4
https://geospatialworldforum.org/2012/g ... 20Wood.pdf

Not real-time for transient targets, but if there is intel about a bunch of valuable trucks are going to be parked at certain known location, 5-meter accuracy is good enough?
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Unread post28 Dec 2018, 01:22

Gums wrote:Even back then you could use that "differential" technique on a moving platform like a drone to get one meter accuracy, and that is what scares security folks near high value tgts that have public access, if you get my drift.


Yeah, I can't see why they'd do it manually either. A possible solution is to use a precisely positioned drone that utilizes LIDAR to relatively map all features to +/-0.1m res. But to get the necessary precision fix on the drone itself it also (continuously if necessary) illuminates a laser reflector situated back on Golan Heights at a pre-surveyed reference point minus atmospheric turbulence, i.e. it could use active optics to negate that source of its own location errors.

And there's no particular reason why F-35 could not use a similar concept to keep its nav system precisely location-updated with respect to precisely known off-board ground reference beacon points. It has precision passive-targeting so if you use precisely located frequency-hopping ground emitters you could get similar levels of F-35 precision location-fix updating in real-time to nail down SAR tracking maps and even moving-target location, over an entire region.
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Unread post28 Dec 2018, 03:12

SpudmanWP wrote:JDAMS can have HoB enabled fuzzing (Height of Burst) via the DSU-33 series of nose sensors. If you see a JDAM or dumb bomb with a white nose, that's it.

https://www.northropgrumman.com/Capabil ... tsheet.pdf

The LJDAM's DSU-38 seeker nose has an integral HoB sensor.

A MOAB would have been nice but the Israelis only have C-130s. Maybe we should retire our B-1Bs when we go B-21 and sell them to Israel :)

C-130s drop MOABs. Are you thinking of the MOP?
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Unread post28 Dec 2018, 04:46

Salute!

Good ideas, Element. And "there must be 50 ways" ( to leave your lover, as well).

Reason I was into this was my job back then for the JDAM II was in the mission planning phase back at the squad using the targeting data provided by intell folks. We had basic non-disclosure crapola with all the potential sensor folks that built tracking/guidance stuff as well as recce systems. That let us look at some really good stuff.

The bottom line is you must get super "ground truth" that is in the reference frame of the weapon guidance system. As the Earth is not a perfectly fomed spheriod or "oblate spheriod" or whatever, the GPS reference frame has small errors being used by your weapon guidance unit. We are talking 5 or 10 meters for most of the Earth, with some places 1 meter and others 15 meters, maybe more in steep mountains.

To hit a parking lot with four big bombs in a perfect geometrical square is no mean feat. I really admire those folks that did it without using LGB's on repeated passes, as I cannot fathom independently guiding four bombs without some tgt obscuration from a previous bomb or fractricide. . So I feel they were dropped from the same plane at one time or one plane dropped and fifteen seconds another dropped and so forth. The individual DMPI's can be calculated easily from just one accurate closeby point that has perfect "ground truth", so Ahmed doesn't need mark each future crater.

Gums sends...
Last edited by Gums on 28 Dec 2018, 17:41, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread post28 Dec 2018, 05:50

wrightwing wrote:C-130s drop MOABs. Are you thinking of the MOP?

Nope, I meant C-130s and MOABs.

My point was that a C-130 is not a viable platform over today's Syrian battlefield, too many double-digit SAMs.
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Unread post28 Dec 2018, 09:10

Gums wrote:To hit a parking lot with four big bombs in a perfect geometrical square is no mean feet. I really admire those folks that did it without using LGB's on repeated passes, as I cannot fathom independently guiding four bombs without some tgt obscuration from a previous bomb or fractricide. . So I feel they were dropped from the same plane at one time or one plane dropped and fifteen seconds another dropped and so forth. The individual DMPI's can be calculated easily from just one accurate closeby point that has perfect "ground truth", so Ahmed doesn't need mark each future crater.


It's a bit more parallelogram shaped if you look closely gums (I zoom processed them). But if these glided from F-16Is over Lebanon that would seem to require 4 x 2,000 lb Spice (a weapon with CEP 3m).

Otherwise we'd have to conclude the bombs came from F-35Is, for how else could they get that far into Syrian territory and land that neatly? The other thing to notice is the cars seem to be pushed into each other but not pushed apart again by later detonation, plus the craters have no car bodies tossed into them, suggesting the TOT was same for all four weapons.

Achieving that logically requires a cooperative engagement drop from 2 x F-35I, each with 2 x 2,000 lb internal during a close formation fly over at altitude.
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Unread post28 Dec 2018, 09:33

smsgtmac wrote:
knowan wrote:...SDBs actually have less blast effect than a 250 lb GP bomb like the Mark 81; they only have 16 kg of explosive filler versus 44 kg for the Mark 81.
There's just no way SDBs caused 40 foot diameter craters like that.

While it's getting to where one needs a program for all the variants on SDBs, the SDB does not use the same explosive filler as the Mk81s/82s. The SDB was developed to leverage the much higher energy (and safer/more stable) AFX-757, which gives it a level of blast effect more akin to the Mk82's bigger 'Tritonal' package. Armaments Lab used to have some awesome video of the blast difference online of an early formulation that highlighted just how much faster the new stuff expanded--gave it a 'mushroom'-like fireball. Probably still out there somewhere.


I'm doubtful 16 kg of AFX-757 can produce anywhere near the same energy as 87 kg of Tritonal.

According to this link: https://ndiastorage.blob.core.usgovclou ... chabin.pdf AFX-757 is a mixture of RDX (hexogen), AP (ammonium perchlorate), A1 (aluminium) and HTPB (hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene, a stabilising polymer).
This link: https://www.env.nm.gov/HWB/12-0083_Requ ... ts.pdf.pdf puts the amounts at 30% Ammonium Perchlorate, 33% Aluminium, 25% RDX and 12% binders.

According to this PDF: https://e-reports-ext.llnl.gov/pdf/241114.pdf 87 kg of Tritonal would produce 283 MJ of energy if 0% of the aluminium reacted, 489 MJ if 50% reacted and 863 MJ if 100% reacted.


Finding figures for AFX-757 is a bit more difficult to find; this link: https://ndiastorage.blob.core.usgovclou ... Bernie.pdf has the energy at 2.54 kJ/cm^3

And this link: http://everyspec.com/MIL-SPECS/MIL-SPEC ... 052704.pdf has the density at 1.76 to 1.86 grams per cc.
That equates to 4.4704 to 4.7244 kJ per gram, resulting in 16 kg of AFX-757 producing 72 to 76 MJ of energy.


That puts the SDB's explosive energy at around 1/4 of the low-end energy of a Mark 82, and around half the low-end energy for the Mark 81 (143 MJ for 44 kg of Tritonal).


Don't take what I'm saying the wrong way; the SDB is a great weapon, but it doesn't have much in the way of blast effects compared to larger bombs.
That's both an advantage and a disadvantage (less collateral damage potential, but makes the bombs less useful for targets that require that kind of blast effect), and it indicates that parking lot was not hit by SDBs.
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