F-35 and Airshows

Discuss the F-35 Lightning II
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quicksilver

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Unread post25 Jun 2019, 22:47

A case against modern AAMs using performance and data from the technology and training environment of 60ish years ago is not credible. Similarly, anyone arguing that ‘everything works all the time’ is not credible; notably, if someone has done so on this forum, I must have missed it. It must be someone’s strawman.
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optimist

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Unread post26 Jun 2019, 00:13

The last USN shoot down, had a 50% missile failure.
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quicksilver

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Unread post26 Jun 2019, 01:37

optimist wrote:The last USN shoot down, had a 50% missile failure.


And so what caused the failure? Do you know any of the forensics? Are you staking your credibility on that sample size?
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zhangmdev

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Unread post26 Jun 2019, 01:39

optimist wrote:The last USN shoot down, had a 50% missile failure.


This is an "A Too-Small Sample Size"

https://www.thoughtco.com/hasty-general ... cy-1690919
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Unread post26 Jun 2019, 02:01

quicksilver wrote:
optimist wrote:The last USN shoot down, had a 50% missile failure.

And so what caused the failure? Do you know any of the forensics? Are you staking your credibility on that sample size?

One may be certain the USN has statistics about 'winders': how many flight hours, installs/uninstalls, cats & arrests etc to determine when a missile may become a DUD. These statistics will have been reviewed & wirebrushed recently. Recall the misplaced decimal point for the statistics for the F-35C from NAVAIR info for the hook design. It was a problem wayback.
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quicksilver

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Unread post26 Jun 2019, 02:21

spazsinbad wrote:One may be certain the USN has statistics about 'winders': how many flight hours, installs/uninstalls, cats & arrests etc to determine when a missile may become a DUD. These statistics will have been reviewed & wirebrushed recently...


Amen. They will also have reviewed everything about the jet and its weapons system, it’s maintenance logs, which ordies loaded the jet, their training, the pilot’s actions and training, HUD video, and everything about the technical elements of how the missile is supposed to work. In common terminology, a determination of ‘root cause and corrective action.’

The difference between what we have the wherewithal to know and understand versus what we might have been able to know even 20 years ago is dramatically different.
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Unread post26 Jun 2019, 02:57

OFF topic but relevant 'winders do rite': AIM-9X Added to NASAMS Armory [Block II] 19 Jun 2019 David Donald
"...can be fired from the NASAMS without modification..." https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ams-armory
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optimist

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Unread post26 Jun 2019, 04:41

It wasn't a criticism and I meant the opposite. It was an observation on a shoot down, the last gulf war has others. Missiles don't have a 1:1 kill ratio, back in vietnam or now. The next gen missile systems will be the same. To use this in anyway to put forward that missiles don't work. That you need a red bull air racer, with guns in a phonebox WVR. Feel the Gs and sustained turn rate. It is disingenuous. Bullets aren't 1:1 either.
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Unread post26 Jun 2019, 05:06

You should be more clear about what your comments say. OFTEN being cryptic does not work unless you make a JOKE. 8)
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kimjongnumbaun

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Unread post26 Jun 2019, 05:16

The AIM-120 has a demonstrated pk rate of 77%. That’s really good. On the reverse side, you have a 23% chance to live if an AIm-120 is fired at you. That’s not very heartening.

download/file.php?id=20715&t=1
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zero-one

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Unread post26 Jun 2019, 08:27

disconnectedradical wrote: Read about ACEVAL/AIMVAL, all aspect missiles like AIM-9L/M totally changed how BFM is done.


Yup in ACEVAL/AIMVAL all aspect missiles were said to make WVR a mutual kill scenario. Yet in actual combat over desert storm just a few years later, 1/3 of kills were achieved in WVR with no mutual kill scenarios ever taking place. In fact, I don't remember a mutual kill scenario ever taking place despite WVR combat continuing to occur in some capacity over the years.

Thats the difference between simulations and actual combat.
Vilters said it perfectly

During tests, they always work perfect.
On computer simulations, they are always good.

In Vietnam only 10 % worked as planned. => Got the picture?


disconnectedradical wrote:I don't know why you're proposing an either/or situation with kinematics and missiles?


Thats exactly what I'm proposing against. I said, HOBS needs to work in concert with Kinematics to increase missile Pk. You can't simply rely on HOBS without a degree of maneuverability. Likewise, more maneuverable aircraft will be at a disadvantage if they face slightly less maneuverable platforms with HOBS.
Last edited by zero-one on 26 Jun 2019, 08:49, edited 2 times in total.
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Unread post26 Jun 2019, 08:32

kimjongnumbaun wrote:The AIM-120 has a demonstrated pk rate of 77%. That’s really good. On the reverse side, you have a 23% chance to live if an AIm-120 is fired at you. That’s not very heartening.

download/file.php?id=20715&t=1


Last I checked it was 63%
(12 kills from 19 shots)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIM-120_AMRAAM

If we add the Pakistani incident, that would make it 13 kills for 20 shots (65%)
However, the IAF continuous to claim that at least 5 AMRAAMs were launched and "dodged" by their Flankers. And unlike their F-16 kill claim, they have wreckage to prove that a least 1 AMRAAMs missed.
If true then that would be 13 kills for 21 to 25 shots (62% to 52% respectively)

I suppose it all depends on how critical you are of Pakistani and Indian claims.
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quicksilver

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Unread post26 Jun 2019, 13:52

“I said, HOBS needs to work in concert with Kinematics to increase missile Pk.”

And pilot training and pilot experience and aircraft weapons system maintenance and maintainer experience and maintainer training and funding and a given service’s cultural approach to all of those things.

That thump thump thump you hear is my foot stomping...for the umpteenth time — it’s not just about weapons and aircraft kinematics.

Western air forces are generally the best in the world because they are good (+/-) at all of those things.
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ricnunes

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Unread post26 Jun 2019, 15:35

optimist wrote:Bullets aren't 1:1 either.


That's exactly the point which is often missed in all these "missiles can miss" discussions!

What's the pk for an X numbers bullets of a Y gun?
While this may vary a lot (pilot skill being one of the factors) and while bullets cannot be jammed/spoofed/decoyed, I'm pretty sure that modern air-to-air missiles still have a far, far better pk than any modern gun.
For example and this being a discussion on the F-35 room in this forum:
1- How many planes can you can shot down with 4 AMRAAMs while flying a F-35A?
2- And how many of the same planes above can you shot down with 180 rounds, also flying the F-35A?

And above all, with 1- you can shot down without even been seen/detected and/or shot back at (while flying the F-35)?
Can you say the same with 2-? I doubt it!
“Active stealth” is what the ignorant nay sayers call ECM and pretend like it’s new.
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quicksilver

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Unread post26 Jun 2019, 16:10

The biggest challenge with the gun is getting close enough to employ it, and in the process one may expose one’s self and one’s ride and one’s wingman to unnecessary risk. Sometimes the best option is to leave and live to fight another day (or at least until one’s next frag on the ATO).

Certain kinds of training often (necessarily) removes some of the ‘getting close’ part, but end game for gun employment remains very difficult, which is why the guns kill in training remains so satisfying.
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