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Document title: Affordable? - Durch unvealed price for first F-35 - F-16.net - The Ultimate F-16 Reference
Original URL: http://www.f-16.net/f-16_forum_viewtopic-t-9304-start-30-sid-781c8e4fb6b957b4f087cde9d74f2d13.html
Printed on: 11 October 2008

Forum: F-35 Lightning II

Affordable? - Durch unvealed price for first F-35



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Thumper3181
PostPosted: Oct 27, 2007 - 01:38 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Getting behind the other guy and turning tighter than he does is already obsolete today. There is no need to get behind the other guy to send a missile his way. Trying to turn tighter than the other guys is moot even in a dogfight today with the advent of HOBS missiles and HMS/HMDs.


Oh no DL! Surely you blaspheme! You mean all that wonderful maneuverability of the Eurocanards is pointless?
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Scorpion82
PostPosted: Oct 27, 2007 - 12:43 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Though the availability of HOBS missiles and HMS compromises the need for manoeuvrability it's wrong to say its completly moot. If you are limited to boresight missiles or if you run out of missiles and rely on guns you quickly end up in the classic turning fight. It must be considered that HOBS shots consumes a lot of energy and therefore limits the missiles range and that pk is still better when launching a missile at boresight. Is manoeuvrability/agility less important in todays WVR engagements? Yes it is, but is it moot? No it isn't. Depends on the situation and circumstances.
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Pilotasso
PostPosted: Oct 27, 2007 - 04:37 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Thumper3181 wrote:
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Getting behind the other guy and turning tighter than he does is already obsolete today. There is no need to get behind the other guy to send a missile his way. Trying to turn tighter than the other guys is moot even in a dogfight today with the advent of HOBS missiles and HMS/HMDs.


Oh no DL! Surely you blaspheme! You mean all that wonderful maneuverability of the Eurocanards is pointless?


LOL then pick up a B-52 with 200 missiles and go at battle with it.

I mean how many times one has to repeat the same mistakes of the past?

Werent you one of the guys who publicitized stealth in the way it also conceals IR signature at the front quadrant?

well there you go, the obselence of dogfighting.

As I see it the more Stealth the more you go back to the essentials. After all even the F-22's radar doesnt posess the technology to beat other stealth aircraft BVR either.
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dwightlooi
PostPosted: Oct 27, 2007 - 08:55 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Thumper3181 wrote:
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Pilotasso, it seems to me that most people are comparing the price of fighters in US dollars, so a 63 million Euro fighter would be about 126 million US. So it does appear as thought he Typhoon cost as mush as a Raptor, but I am sure the F-22 costs more.


The Saudi deal was reported in pounds, not Euros. Reuters (not exactly an American friendly media outlet) reported the deal to be worth 4.43 Billion Pounds for 72 aircraft. So that there is absolutely no doubt as to what has been reported the exact quote is below.

"the Saudi Arabian defence ministry earlier in the day said a deal for the aircraft had been signed for the jets -- excluding weapons and maintenance -- worth 4.43 billion pounds ($8.84 billion)."
http://www.reuters.com/article/companyN ... 1420070917

For our European friends who may have a bit of trouble with the English language that means they paid 4.43 billion pounds for 72 aircraft and 72 owners manuals. They did not get fuel, they did not get weapons, they did not get maintenance.

Now as for math, the universal language it's simple.

4.43/.072 = 61.527 Billion pounds. At current exchange rates thats 126.08 million dollars a copy.

Now lets keep in mind. This is not for pre-production aircraft but for production models. For the money they don't get stealth, and they don't get an AESA. Must be nice to have money to burn and Uncle Sam to bail you out if you get in serious trouble.


The value of a fighter deal is typically about 50~100% more than the price of the aircraft alone. Based in the contract value one it is prudent to estimate the actual selling price of the Typhoon to be around $63~$95 million which is about right.
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Thumper3181
PostPosted: Oct 28, 2007 - 02:06 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Is manoeuvrability/agility less important in todays WVR engagements? Yes it is, but is it moot? No it isn't. Depends on the situation and circumstances.

I think when we have these discussions of which plane is better we tend to try and compare them without supporting assets and in a one on one situation. Obviously that is not realistic.

However in this type of situation I seriously doubt that all 4 slammers are going to miss a single EF. If they do I would imagine one of two things happening, either the F-35 turns around and leaves the scene without the EF ever knowing where he was or if things are dire enough to risk it, the F-35 is like DL said somewhere, going to use it's stealth to maneuver into such an advantageous postion to use sidewinders or guns that again, the EF will not have a chance because he does not see him.

Sorry, maneuverability is nice, but it is very limited in utility in real life because of stealth, limitations of the human body, and the fact that the delta (if it is indeed more maneuverable which has not been proven yet) in maneuver capability between the EF and F-35 is not great enough to matter.

Quote:
The value of a fighter deal is typically about 50~100% more than the price of the aircraft alone. Based in the contract value one it is prudent to estimate the actual selling price of the Typhoon to be around $63~$95 million which is about right.


Normally DL I would agree with you but in this instance the only thing included in the initial 4.43 billion pound contract is the 72 AC, initial training an support. In other words it's 126 million bucks for the plane, the flight manual, a tank of gas and the initial warranty. This was cited in Bloomberg, Reuters, and now
http://babelfish.altavista.com/babelfis ... l&lp=de_en
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Scorpion82
PostPosted: Oct 28, 2007 - 02:18 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Thumper3181 wrote:

I think when we have these discussions of which plane is better we tend to try and compare them without supporting assets and in a one on one situation. Obviously that is not realistic.


I agree on that. An unrealistic 1 vs 1 engagement without support is probably the most fair way of making such comparisons.

Quote:

However in this type of situation I seriously doubt that all 4 slammers are going to miss a single EF. If they do I would imagine one of two things happening, either the F-35 turns around and leaves the scene without the EF ever knowing where he was or if things are dire enough to risk it, the F-35 is like DL said somewhere, going to use it's stealth to maneuver into such an advantageous postion to use sidewinders or guns that again, the EF will not have a chance because he does not see him.


I agree that it is not that likely that all 4 AMRAAMs would miss, it probably depends on the effectivness of the Typhoon's ECM/TRD (launch can bedetected with MAWS before AMRAAM seeker goes active), launch conditions etc. Leaving the battlefield is the most likely and safe option, but I wouldn't bet on the F-35 being entirely invincible. Stealth as well as LPI just means harder to detect, it might work more or less well depending on the adversary.

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Sorry, maneuverability is nice, but it is very limited in utility in real life because of stealth, limitations of the human body, and the fact that the delta (if it is indeed more maneuverable which has not been proven yet) in maneuver capability between the EF and F-35 is not great enough to matter.


Well it's not the delta wing itself which makes Typhoon more manoeuvrable than the F-15, F-16 or MiG-29, its the entire combination of low wingloading, high TWR, low drag and the aerodynamically unstable design. Luftwaffe Typhoon pilots commented that the aircraft is more agile and manoeuvrable than the MiG-29, which provides superior turning performance in comparison to the F-15 or F-16. Other pilots who have flown such US fighters made similar comments. Similar comments can be found for the Rafale when the aircraft was pitted against F-18s and F-16s during exercises. There no useful details known about the F-35, but the aircraft will not match the Raptors manoeuvrability and considering the different factors like wing loading, TWR etc. I tend to believe that the F-35 won't be as manoeuvrable as Rafale, Typhoon or Raptor to mention some examples.

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Normally DL I would agree with you but in this instance the only thing included in the initial 4.43 billion pound contract is the 72 AC, initial training an support. In other words it's 126 million bucks for the plane, the flight manual, a tank of gas and the initial warranty. This was cited in Bloomberg, Reuters, and now


It doesn't say its for a manual and a load of gas. That's your interpretation.
To operate an aircraft you need some ground equipment and other support devices which are likely to be included. Initial training is typically training of first pilots and technicans before the new customer is able to train its crews all alone or within extended training agreements.[/quote]
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Pilotasso
PostPosted: Oct 28, 2007 - 03:14 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Thumper3181 wrote:

However in this type of situation I seriously doubt that all 4 slammers are going to miss a single EF. If they do I would imagine one of two things happening, either the F-35 turns around and leaves the scene without the EF ever knowing where he was or if things are dire enough to risk it, the F-35 is like DL said somewhere, going to use it's stealth to maneuver into such an advantageous postion to use sidewinders or guns that again, the EF will not have a chance because he does not see him.


Your taking your imagination too far away from the purpose of this discussion.

First none here put the F-35 fighting the Eurofighter.
Secondly I never heard of 100% PK for the AIM-120 before.
Thirdly because you already demonstrated in other threads that you do not have any idea about missile kinematics or BVR tactics.
Fourth, because the Typhoon has the most comprehensive missile defense system avaiable anywhere.
Fifth F-35 is not like the F-22. I doubt it has active IR stealth measures.
Sixth, because Eurofighter can engage and hit more targets silmultaneously than the F-35.
Seventh, because F-35's combat persistence is lower, or else become as unstealthy as the Eurofighter is.

I think it due time for a bit of more humility and impartial analyisis from your part. Dont you think so? Chest banging doesnt add to the credibility of anyone in these kind of debates.
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dwightlooi
PostPosted: Oct 28, 2007 - 04:45 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Pilotasso wrote:
Thumper3181 wrote:

However in this type of situation I seriously doubt that all 4 slammers are going to miss a single EF. If they do I would imagine one of two things happening, either the F-35 turns around and leaves the scene without the EF ever knowing where he was or if things are dire enough to risk it, the F-35 is like DL said somewhere, going to use it's stealth to maneuver into such an advantageous postion to use sidewinders or guns that again, the EF will not have a chance because he does not see him.


Your taking your imagination too far away from the purpose of this discussion.

First none here put the F-35 fighting the Eurofighter.

LOL!

Secondly I never heard of 100% PK for the AIM-120 before.

Nobody said that, but it is a very good missile. Probably the best medium range AAM currently in service.

Thirdly because you already demonstrated in other threads that you do not have any idea about missile kinematics or BVR tactics.

No Comments. You are entitled to your opinion on Thumper.

Fourth, because the Typhoon has the most comprehensive missile defense system avaiable anywhere.

The Typhoon's missile defense system is very similar to that on the F-18E/F -- automatic threat detection/defense management, self-defense jamming, towed decoy and expendable counter-measures. The F-35 will have an equal or better defensive suite plus the advantage of a VLO airframe and superior RF and IR sensor package.

Fifth F-35 is not like the F-22. I doubt it has active IR stealth measures.

Neither the F-22 nor the F-35 has extreme IR suppression measures, there is also no indication that they are different in this department. IRST as a volume search tool is useless because it is extremely slow if it needs to reach out to any reasonable range and it is very short sighted when operating at a wide field of view. The VLO aircraft will always have first look against a non-stealthy opponent.

Sixth, because Eurofighter can engage and hit more targets silmultaneously than the F-35.

An F-35 will be able to 4~6 internal AAMs. This is also the typical warload of a Typhoon.


Seventh, because F-35's combat persistence is lower, or else become as unstealthy as the Eurofighter is.

The F-35's mission endurance is higher -- it carries 8.4 tons of fuel vs 4.5~4.9 tons on the Typhoon. This gives it more range, more fuel with which to gain a kinematic advantage, more energy to dispense. When missile barging it can carry abour 14~16 AAMs, and its signature will still be lower than the Typhoon although no enough to prosecute VLO tactics, it still has a better radar, better IRST, better EW, better communication, better pilot interface and better range/endurance.

I think it due time for a bit of more humility and impartial analyisis from your part. Dont you think so? Chest banging doesnt add to the credibility of anyone in these kind of debates.


Agan... no comments. Insult Thumper or praise him; its totally between you and him.
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Maffa
PostPosted: Oct 28, 2007 - 06:54 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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why re you comparing a monkey wrench and a screwdriver? And why nobody has still told if what they should operate on a sink or an electrical switch?

The future scenarios will be:
- Long War On Terror (LWOT)
- Symmetrical engagement with an inferior Power (Iran)
- Asymmetrical engagement with an inferior Power (same)
- Symmetrical engagement with an almost equal mayor power (China, Russia)

consider who will partecipate, who will get there on time on day 1 and how, who will be it against, what kind of missions will they have to do, etc.

Jeez you wont find these kind of comparisons on car mags anymore!
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snypa777
PostPosted: Oct 28, 2007 - 09:16 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Thumper3181 wrote:
Quote:
Getting behind the other guy and turning tighter than he does is already obsolete today. There is no need to get behind the other guy to send a missile his way. Trying to turn tighter than the other guys is moot even in a dogfight today with the advent of HOBS missiles and HMS/HMDs.


Oh no DL! Surely you blaspheme! You mean all that wonderful maneuverability of the Eurocanards is pointless?


Oh dear.

Look fellas, the hard facts do not in any way support those words.
F-22- highly manouvreable and TVC.
Typhoon, canards, highly maneuverable.
Su-xx, highly maneuverable with TVC.
Rafale and Gripen, highly maneuverable.
F-35, said to be as maneuverable as the Viper.

Not moot, not even maybe. Do you guys know something Dassault, Eurofighter consortium, LM, Sukhoi etc don`t?

Not likely is it? Maneuverability DOES matter. Now, it doesn`t matter much for a long range strike aircraft like the `Vark or the Tornado IDS which flew Nap of the Earth missions but it still matters for air superiority machines. By the way, do you think that nobody has developed tactics to negate HOBS missile use or to reduce the threat? It would be naive to think so.

If turning ability was of no use why do we still produce new designs which have this ability at the forefront of their design?

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Pilotasso
PostPosted: Oct 28, 2007 - 09:44 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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dwightlooi I didnt insult thumper, and he doesnt need your charity.

You also need to get some facts straight:

Typhoon is not limited to 6 missiles. You happen to just seen the low drag AA config in photos, i.e. 4 recessed AMRAAMs and 2 Sidwinders. The Typhoon has 13 hardpoints, one centreline hardpoint, four conformal fuselage hardpoints, and four hardpoints on each wing. Maximum payload is between 6500-7500kg, which includes up to ten missiles. Since the F-35 wont be certified to carry 6 AMRAAMs internaly for some time (isnt that an assumption on your part?) there will be only 4 avaiable hardpoints in the internal bay, plus another 4 externaly:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... -specs.htm
Making it a total of 8, and no "up to 16 missiles", where the heck you ever saw that?

A little more reading recommended before writing please. Wink

On another note, F-22 does have active IR supression stealth, fuel irrigation in the wings, for friction heat dissipation.

P.S. I insist no one here, at least I didnt put the Eurofighter fighting the F-35, thats entirely the product of your and thumpers interpretation of something I didnt quite write.
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Thumper3181
PostPosted: Oct 29, 2007 - 12:37 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Luftwaffe Typhoon pilots commented that the aircraft is more agile and manoeuvrable than the MiG-29, which provides superior turning performance in comparison to the F-15 or F-16.

Again, really? At what speeds? At what altitudes? What is the load out? Very blanket statement that really does not stand up to scrutiny.

Quote:
Other pilots who have flown such US fighters made similar comments. Similar comments can be found for the Rafale when the aircraft was pitted against F-18s and F-16s during exercises.


Care to cite a few sources because again, it's a pretty blanket statement you are making that has no basis in reality. You cannot keep repeating something and hope that if repeated enough times without challenge it will become generally accepted fact. Prove it.

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I tend to believe that the F-35 won't be as manoeuvrable as Rafale, Typhoon or Raptor to mention some examples.

Well actually when we did the T/W exercise, the fuel load, the internal stores and if we recalulate the wing loading based on the numbers we think the F-35 will come in at your opinion will have very little basis in fact.

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That's your interpretation.

No it said for initial training and support. It also went on to say that another several billion pounds was for ongoing support and maintenance. Thats an awful lot of money they are paying for some flight simulators,(well they don;t have a two seat EF), the initial warranty, the owners manual and a tank of gas. Can you please point me to the place that it says otherwise?

Quote:
why re you comparing a monkey wrench and a screwdriver?

True the EF is really an interceptor with a secondary air superiority and ground attack function. While mainly for strike, for many smaller air forces the F-35 will also have the role of interceptor and air superiority fighter.

Quote:
consider who will partecipate, who will get there on time on day 1 and how, who will be it against, what kind of missions will they have to do, etc.

All very relevant comparisons, but this is not the page for strategy.

Off the top of my head I can think of two future scenarios where the two AC would be pitted against one another. Israel/Saudi Arabia, and Greece /Turkey. Aside from that there are commercial considerations.
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Scorpion82
PostPosted: Oct 29, 2007 - 12:55 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Thumper3181 wrote:

Again, really? At what speeds? At what altitudes? What is the load out? Very blanket statement that really does not stand up to scrutiny.


No specific regions were mentioned. You must understand that the Typhoon isn't a record aircraft, but a flight envelope pusher.

Quote:

Care to cite a few sources because again, it's a pretty blanket statement you are making that has no basis in reality. You cannot keep repeating something and hope that if repeated enough times without challenge it will become generally accepted fact. Prove it.


Don't worry, I will need some time as I'm not home and havem't all my materials here, but I will give you sources soon. And yes it has its base in reality, you just don't like it.

Quote:

Well actually when we did the T/W exercise, the fuel load, the internal stores and if we recalulate the wing loading based on the numbers we think the F-35 will come in at your opinion will have very little basis in fact.


It is said the F-35 will offer similar manoeuvrability to the F-16 and that's below that of the Typhoon, Rafale, Raptor etc.. Just a look at the F-35 alone tells you it won't be a world beater on performance accounts (just look at its aerodynamics). TWR and wing load are other factors.

Quote:

No it said for initial training and support. It also went on to say that another several billion pounds was for ongoing support and maintenance. Thats an awful lot of money they are paying for some flight simulators,(well they don;t have a two seat EF), the initial warranty, the owners manual and a tank of gas. Can you please point me to the place that it says otherwise?


No of your sources said that this inital training and support is for a manual and a tank of gas. Try the november issue of AFM, which contains a couple of details about the Saudi contract, including the fact that the Saudis will receive 14 twin seats. Training is carried out in the UK with the No.29(R) squadron at Coningsby.
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dwightlooi
PostPosted: Oct 29, 2007 - 02:50 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Pilotasso wrote:
dwightlooi I didnt insult thumper, and he doesnt need your charity.

You also need to get some facts straight:

Typhoon is not limited to 6 missiles. You happen to just seen the low drag AA config in photos, i.e. 4 recessed AMRAAMs and 2 Sidwinders. The Typhoon has 13 hardpoints, one centreline hardpoint, four conformal fuselage hardpoints, and four hardpoints on each wing. Maximum payload is between 6500-7500kg, which includes up to ten missiles. Since the F-35 wont be certified to carry 6 AMRAAMs internaly for some time (isnt that an assumption on your part?) there will be only 4 avaiable hardpoints in the internal bay, plus another 4 externaly:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... -specs.htm
Making it a total of 8, and no "up to 16 missiles", where the heck you ever saw that?

A little more reading recommended before writing please. Wink

On another note, F-22 does have active IR supression stealth, fuel irrigation in the wings, for friction heat dissipation.

P.S. I insist no one here, at least I didnt put the Eurofighter fighting the F-35, thats entirely the product of your and thumpers interpretation of something I didnt quite write.


The point is that in a Typical A2A intercept or fighter sweep mission a Typhoon will probably carry 6 AAMs -- 4 AMRAAM/Meteor types, two IRs and one or two drop tanks.

In a Typical A2A configuration, the F-35 will carry 4 AMRAAMs or 6 if the internal twin ejectors are developed and deveployed.

Regardless of the maximum theoretical missile load, these are practically never carried on missions because mission analysis concludes that the opportunity to use and hence the need for a dozen missiles does not exist in over 99% of the missions. The extra ordnance is hence a waste and a penalty to the aircraft and is hence not carried.

BTW, according to the F-35 program office, the maximum A2A loadout of the F-35 at IOC will be 14. 4 internally, 10 externally. If a dual internal ejector is deployed then this goes to 16 -- 6 + 10. The four inner pylons will carry double rails. The outermost pylons will carry singles. It is unclear whether tanks or additional A2G ordnance will be carried under the twin rails (ala F-15) but the load capacity is certainly there (there are two 5,000 pound hard points and two 2,500 ones on the wings, in addition to the 350 lb outboarders and the single 1,250 pound station on the centerline reserved for the gun pod).
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Maffa
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All very relevant comparisons, but this is not the page for strategy.

Off the top of my head I can think of two future scenarios where the two AC would be pitted against one another. Israel/Saudi Arabia, and Greece /Turkey. Aside from that there are commercial considerations.



The problem is, strategy is what should guide building specs, and affordability is a fundamental part of strategy (other than the very topic of this thread). If we still take US "1-4-2-1" doctrine for good, both F-22 and F-35 are utter failure because they cant provide the numbers necessary to protect homeland, be present in 4 continents in threatening numbers, lead two conflicts with medium powers and winning decisively one: i.e. they fail to meet the requirements. This is why i was telling you

Quote:
consider who will partecipate, who will get there on time on day 1 and how, who will be it against, what kind of missions will they have to do, etc.
. because numbers will differe greatly, and since for some european nations EFA and JSF project are stepping on each other feet on defence budgets (like Italy and UK), the probable result is that US will not have sufficient aircrafts to project, and europe wont have sufficient aircrafts to back US up.
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