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I agree that in the US or China religion is unlikely to overpower a financial decision, at least in the back room, but there are other countries in the world that currently are, or may be in the future, controlled by religious leaders and they may make decisions that most straight thinking humans can't comprehend.

It's too easy to go to far in a discussion like this, so I will stop now.

Have a nice weekend.

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I dont recall the last time the chinese made a political or economic decision based on religion. They are-despite all- still communist and that idiology basicaly dismisses religion in almost every aspect. They have some laws against religion. So I dont see how religion came to table.

You can just forget about any religion decision over economics. Its just not part of chinese culture.

Let's look at this from a little different angle. First let me say I am a patriotic citizen of Europe which has the USA as it's greatest ally, so now that we've made clear I am not some Chinese patriot who will make up stories to make you believe China is super duper strong, I can go on with my story.

The problem for the USA and Taiwan is going to be as followed: It is undeniable that China is growing enormously economically speaking. It is also important to note that the Chinese economy (GDP PPP wise) is just a year or 2 away from catching up to the US economy and 3 years away from overtaking the EU economy (which is a trillion larger then that of the USA, and yes I know the EU isn't one country, but anyone who studied the EU the slightest and isn't talking out of pure patriotism and nothing more knows the EU is no different from being 1 country when it comes to the economic level). Now ofcourse this isn't true when you look at economies on the GDP nominal scale where the chinese are only at 4 trillion the USA at 13,1 and the EU 14,4. But then again PPP shows true financial strength (it accounts for inflation and how much a dollar gets you in the particular country).

What I'm saying here, is that the Chinese economy is overtaking that of the USA and when it does, there is no way for the USA to keep up in defence spending if the PRC decides to overtake the USA in defence spending.

At that point the USA must also wonder: Are we willing to sacrifice California for example to save Taiwan? Not that the PRC will invade California but they could retaliate.

So to sumarize. When it comes to Taiwan... The PRC is swiftly gaining the potential to punch back when the USA punches it. And is the USA willing to risk getting punched to save Taiwan?

F-16.net Editor Joined: Sep 23, 2003 Posts: 2862

Also remember that a lot of Chicom leadership likes their current rice bowl of business kickbacks etc in the new economy. They like life and all the benefits. They don't want to screw that up by making too big a deal over Taiwan. They'll sabre rattle to keep up the status quo but make no mistake that the Chicom leadership likes the cash and the high life. Large combat would screw that up.

Also look at the force structure. A lot of their aircraft buys are to replace a lot of old tech aircraft they have now. Then look at all the fronts they have to force structure against. They have to have military capacity to face... Vietnam, India, Russia, the west in the "stans", Taiwan, Japan, and anything else I might have missed.

They are also learning that money talks. Look at all the soft power influence they are buying throughout the Pac Rim. They can buy a lot of votes at a U.N. table on issues they want. Fiji, E. Timor, Myanmar to name a very small few, all have some PRC cash in their back pocket for civil projects, name it.

Big war would also goof up resources. They still don't have enough oil reserves on hand in case of a big turn over of the apple cart. A good chunk of their oil of which they are using more of still has to come via the Indian ocean.

Finally they have to force structure PLA stuff for home. Lots more civil unrest in the disparity between the haves and have-nots in that country.

So it isn't all as simple as some new military hardware facing Taiwan. It is mostly about a world economy that has a bunch of connectivity to China.

I am sure Chicom leadership doesn't want their comforts upset too much.

Elite 1K Joined: Jul 26, 2005 Posts: 1455 Status: Offline

elp wrote:

Also remember that a lot of Chicom leadership likes their current rice bowl of business kickbacks etc in the new economy. They like life and all the benefits. They don't want to screw that up by making too big a deal over Taiwan. They'll sabre rattle to keep up the status quo but make no mistake that the Chicom leadership likes the cash and the high life. Large combat would screw that up.

They are also learning that money talks. Look at all the soft power influence they are buying throughout the Pac Rim. They can buy a lot of votes at a U.N. table on issues they want. Fiji, E. Timor, Myanmar to name a very small few, all have some PRC cash in their back pocket for civil projects, name it.

I am sure Chicom leadership doesn't want their comforts upset too much.

ELP that`s seems very true, a pal of mine just returned from Beijing on a "business" trip/jolly! A former boss off his is in China, his company is building eleven nuclear reactors as part of their power generation capacity.

He told me that Beijing is like the West end of London, LOTS and LOTS of money and opulence. Not at all how he imagined "China". My point , once you have tasted real money it is hard to forget/fore-go Cool

I don`t think it really matters what tools the US would bring to a conflict, any prize fight with China is going to hurt, F-35/F-22 or not. It is something China certainly doesn`t want or need. You only have to look at their "soft shoe" approach to Hong-Kong to realize that money talks in China.

Newbie Joined: Jul 17, 2007 Posts: 2 Status: Offline

Taiwan is living on borrowed time. It is only a matter of time before it spreads her legs to China.
This is not a matter of independence or not, but a matter of strength. In the end, the strong will take over the weak.

Will the US go to war with China? Of course not. If the US goes to war with China, then the advantage will all go to Russia-- who I'm sure will be watching closely and hoping that USA and China would wound each other out, saving them valuable time and energy, before they jump in for the ultimate kill once the USA and China have weakened each other out. The Russians were to be the ultimate winners here if a war is to break out between the USA and China. Russia wouldn't take sides. It will just watch and wait and attack once both the US and China have exhausted themselves.

So, let Taiwan submit to China. Or this whole conflict is much bigger and dangeous than what most think.

xxj wrote:

Taiwan is living on borrowed time. It is only a matter of time before it spreads her legs to China.
This is not a matter of independence or not, but a matter of strength. In the end, the strong will take over the weak.

Will the US go to war with China? Of course not. If the US goes to war with China, then the advantage will all go to Russia-- who I'm sure will be watching closely and hoping that USA and China would wound each other out, saving them valuable time and energy, before they jump in for the ultimate kill once the USA and China have weakened each other out. The Russians were to be the ultimate winners here if a war is to break out between the USA and China. Russia wouldn't take sides. It will just watch and wait and attack once both the US and China have exhausted themselves.
So, let Taiwan submit to China. Or this whole conflict is much bigger and dangerous than what most think.

Brr...Cold war all over again ? I don't think so, the military embargo that US has put on China has done nothing but good to Russian military economy. As long as the tension between US and China last , the Russians are selling weapons to China, a open conflict would not be good news to anybody.

I doubt it... the EU alone is strong enough to take on Russia. I think the EU would stay out of a China-USA war over Taiwan, but the EU will most likely defend the USA against Russia if the USA for some reason wasn't able to defend itself (for example the USA and China knocking eachother out). But it's all theory.

Driver wrote:

I doubt it... the EU alone is strong enough to take on Russia. I think the EU would stay out of a China-USA war over Taiwan, but the EU will most likely defend the USA against Russia if the USA for some reason wasn't able to defend itself (for example the USA and China knocking eachother out). But it's all theory.

Day dreaming.....

Quote:

Taiwan is living on borrowed time. It is only a matter of time before it spreads her legs to China.
This is not a matter of independence or not, but a matter of strength. In the end, the strong will take over the weak.

Will the US go to war with China? Of course not. If the US goes to war with China, then the advantage will all go to Russia-- who I'm sure will be watching closely and hoping that USA and China would wound each other out, saving them valuable time and energy, before they jump in for the ultimate kill once the USA and China have weakened each other out. The Russians were to be the ultimate winners here if a war is to break out between the USA and China. Russia wouldn't take sides. It will just watch and wait and attack once both the US and China have exhausted themselves.

So, let Taiwan submit to China. Or this whole conflict is much bigger and dangeous than what most think.

OR

China comes to their senses that it is not worth a war over and let things stay as they are.

Hitler was also betting on that other nations would not react. He was wrong!

Cad wrote:

Driver wrote:

I doubt it... the EU alone is strong enough to take on Russia. I think the EU would stay out of a China-USA war over Taiwan, but the EU will most likely defend the USA against Russia if the USA for some reason wasn't able to defend itself (for example the USA and China knocking eachother out). But it's all theory.

Day dreaming.....

Hardly...

Please explain how do think EU "alone" could take on Russia.

Some problems with your numbers and your conclusions Driver.

Quote:

It is also important to note that the Chinese economy (GDP PPP wise) is just a year or 2 away from catching up to the US economy

Says who. If you are being objective and you know the facts that is a most ludicrous statement.

2006 GDP PPP per capita for US is either $44,000 or $43,444 depending on the source.
China's 2005 GDP PPP per capita is either $7,598 or $7,700.

Sources:
http://imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/200 ... index.aspx
https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... 4rank.html

Total PPP GDP for 2006 is somewhere around $13.5 Trillion for the US and $10.1 Trillion for China. Even if China grows by 9% a year and the US 3% it will take at least several years for China to catch up in total PPP GNP.

Many big assumptions here. The per Capita GDP PPP is most telling. China has 1.6 billion people and the US about 300 million. There are still literally a billion people in China living a third world existence.

People said the same thing about Japan 20 years ago. They where in an even better economic position than China and they never overtook us. While China may one day do so, they have a lot of obstacles to overcome before it happens. This is not patriotism, it is facts.

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I know the EU isn't one country, but anyone who studied the EU the slightest and isn't talking out of pure patriotism and nothing more knows the EU is no different from being 1 country when it comes to the economic level).

Perhaps, but by your standards you would have to include the GDP of all of North America as well as several south American countries for the American GDP. Again, not patriotism but facts.

As for China and the US going at it over Taiwan, again the facts point to the Chinese being bombed back into the stone age and being faced with nuclear annihilation should they attack Taiwan and further threaten the US with a nuke. Take a look at each others nuclear arsenal and then take into account China's track record on launches and the US TBM defenses. Not a pretty picture for China. Facts, nothing but facts.

Quote:

the EU alone is strong enough to take on Russia.

You can't be serious?

There maybe issues with China and Taiwan but I'm sure China is going to be careful not to poke the west in the eye. Apart from a more capable military it would face, China's main export customers are the US and EU. China hasn't exactly got a good internal economy, its success comes from its exports, and who are its biggest customers? The US and EU, who would put trade embargoes on China's exports. This would be detrimental to China's economy and growth so I would imagine China is going to tread carefully with the Taiwan issue.

At the same time the potential threat can't be ignored, and we do have to make sure that we won't be caught with our trousers down in the future.

Thumper3181 wrote:

People said the same thing about Japan 20 years ago. They where in an even better economic position than China and they never overtook us. While China may one day do so, they have a lot of obstacles to overcome before it happens. This is not patriotism, it is facts.

I agree with ol' Thumper, China does have obstacles and it does have a large proportion of people still in poverty. Eventually Chinese workers will demand higher wages which will directly affect China's advantage. Also with increased measures on reducing Carbon emissions in the EU and US, whose to say both these powers won't add a carbon tax to Chinese imports later on.

But still China is growing at an alarming rate and providing it continues at that rate it will surpass the US. But I guess time will tell.

Thumper3181 wrote:

Perhaps, but by your standards you would have to include the GDP of all of North America as well as several south American countries for the American GDP. Again, not patriotism but facts.

Not really. I don't think you really understand the EU and how integrated it really is.

- The EU has a parliament (a lot of new laws in the UK alone have come from Brussels).

- EU courts have power in all EU countries and can override certain
sentences/decisions made in UK courts.

- The EU has its own currency the Euro.

- A lot of work & domestic standards in the UK have been added/changed to align with the EU (E.g. Our voltage in the UK was reduced to 230V to be in line with the EU)

It goes on and on. The EU is pretty much basing itself on the US, a union of states with federal law and state law. The EU is beyond half way to achieving the 'United States of Europe'. Further integration was halted in 2005 by the French and Dutch in the EU Constitution proposal. But further integration will happen eventually.

Personally I object to EU integration, a super-state isn't going to affect my quality of life for the better. Plus we all loose our sovereignty and the things that make us unique. The UK probably has the biggest population percentage of EU objectors but they are not the majority. For those of you who didn't know there is even a political party who's main policy is getting the UK out of Europe (UKIP - UK Independence Party).

Anyway spent way tooo much time talking about that, I suggest you read up on the EU (hell Wiki it), its a lot more complex than you think.

Cad wrote:

Please explain how do think EU "alone" could take on Russia.

Well the UK military in generally ranked second behind the US in terms of military power (this included projection capabilities, technology, training, equipment etc). France isn't far behind either. However I wouldn't be making statements that the EU could take on Russia.

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But still China is growing at an alarming rate and providing it continues at that rate it will surpass the US. But I guess time will tell.

They have an environmental nightmare and a history of corruption second to none. This just yesterday. From Business Week.

"Broken China a Dysfunctional Nation"
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/In ... ation.aspx

Quote:

Not really. I don't think you really understand the EU and how integrated it really is.

But I do understand the EU. Although the goal may be integration it is not yet there on par with the US. There are still many factors which make the EU more like NAFTA economically than the US.

The currency is not universal
The ECB does not set Interest Rates for the entire EU
Each nation continues to have it's own foreign policy
Each nation continues to field it's own armed forces
Each nation can opt out at any time
Each nation ultimately determines it's economic policy (remember all those deficits Germany and France where running)

You had voltage changes rammed down your throat we are having metric rammed down ours. Why, economics plain and simple.

Lastly, each nation in the EU has it's own vote in the various International bodies.

Quote:

Personally I object to EU integration, a super-state isn't going to affect my quality of life for the better.

You may be right. France and Germany may finally get their way in Europe without a drop of blood shed. Churchill must be turning in his grave. Add to that the Nordic nations and the new Europe nations that feel compelled to join for economic reasons. No different from WWII except there is no bloodshed. A shame really.

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Well the UK military in generally ranked second behind the US in terms of military power

I would not be too sure of that. Especially in Europe. The Russians would roll right on through. The German army is but a shadow of itself and the rest of the nations combined just don't have the cohesion or numbers to stop them. Frankly it's scary because I would not be too sure of the US coming to Europe's aid in the future.

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