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Document title: One Option of Study: Recommends Cut U.S. F-35 By Half - F-16.net - The Ultimate F-16 Reference
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Printed on: 18 November 2008

Forum: F-35 Lightning II

One Option of Study: Recommends Cut U.S. F-35 By Half



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elp
PostPosted: Jun 21, 2007 - 07:43 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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U.S. should consider F-35 fighter cuts -- study

Wed Jun 20, 2007 8:47 PM BST17
By Jim Wolf


WASHINGTON, June 20 (Reuters) - The United States should consider slashing the number of Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT.N: Quote, Profile , Research) F-35 fighter aircraft it plans to buy, largely because it does not have the reach needed to fight well in Asia, a leading military research group said in a report Wednesday.

The private Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments voiced fears the F-35, the Pentagon's costliest arms acquisition ever, might crowd out what it called needed investments in longer-range strike capabilities.

"China in particular has the strategic depth to locate key facilities beyond the reach of short-range systems," said the study titled U.S. Fighter Modernization Plans: Near-term Choices.

Currently, the radar-evading F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, or JSF, is at the heart of plans for modernizing U.S. air power. At $299 billion for 2,443 aircraft to be produced through 2034, it is designed to replace the F-16 and a range of other aircraft.

Acquiring so many F-35s "now seems neither affordable nor needed, and the U.S. buy can probably be reduced by as much as 50 percent without driving unit costs through the roof or abandoning close allies," the study said.

Eight countries -- Britain, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey, Canada, Australia, Denmark and Norway -- have joined the United States to fund development of the F-35.

The chief reason to consider cuts is the short range of all three models being built -- conventional for the Air Force; a short take-off, vertical landing one for the Marine Corps; and a carrier-borne version for the Navy's aircraft carriers, the study's authors Even with the addition of external fuel tanks and radar- evading standoff munitions, the F-35's unrefueled reach is unlikely to extend beyond 1,500 nautical miles, the study said.

U.S. strike aircraft setting out from Kadena Air Force Base on Japan's Okinawa Island would have to fly some 1,600 nautical miles to reach Jiuquan, site of China's first spaceport, on the southern edge of the Gobi Desert. All but 200 miles of this distance would be through Chinese air space, the study said.

Responding to Beijing's Jan. 11 demonstration of an antisatellite weapon, Pentagon officials have voiced concerns about the vulnerability of U.S. eyes and ears in space.

"What Jiuquan does illustrate is just how deep inside China some of the targets are located that the United States might wish to hold at risk for purposes of dissuasion and deterrence," the study said.

The report was written by Steve Kosiak, a defense budget expert, and Barry Watts, the Pentagon's director of program analysis and evaluation from May 2001 to June 2002.

They said there was "reason to worry that the JSF's funding requirements will crowd out future investment in long-range strike capabilities," given scare Air Force procurement dollars.

The authors did not make specific proposals for restructuring the F-35 program. Instead, they hoped to spark debate over the aircraft, which flew for the first time in December and is due to be delivered to U.S. forces starting in 2010.

Cheryl Limrick, a spokeswoman for the Pentagon's F-35 program office, said it would be inappropriate to comment on the report. A Lockheed Martin F-35 spokesman did not immediately return a telephone call seeking comment.

Source: http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/art ... ticlePage2


Interesting idea given our budget problems- Full study mentioned in story is the attached PDF file.....recommended reading- EP



R.20070620.US_Fighter_Moderni.pdf
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U.S. Fighter Modernization Plans: Near Term Choices- Center for Strategic And Budgetary Assessments-

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elp
PostPosted: Jun 21, 2007 - 05:52 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Defense News take on the story here-
http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F= ... &C=america

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Lightndattic
PostPosted: Jun 21, 2007 - 02:15 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Do the authors of that study realize the F-35 won't be the only strike asset in a theater? So it's not able to reach China from Kadena (neither can the F-16 today), that's what heavy, long ranged bombers are for. If it comes down to needing to use F-35 ranged aircraft over China, they likely wouldn't be flying from Okinawa, they'd be flying from Taiwan, carriers in the S China Sea or possibly S Korea.
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sferrin
PostPosted: Jun 21, 2007 - 06:07 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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I read that and thought "yeah let's find a way to jack the F-35's price up even higher so we can't buy any". Apparently they're unfamiliar with the cut numbers / increase cost death spiral. Not to meniton the maintenance and spares chains. So their grand scheme for "saving" money amounts to cutting efficiency and doubling the number of types of aircraft you need to support. Brilliant plan.
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snypa777
PostPosted: Jun 21, 2007 - 07:01 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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My take on it, for what it`s worth, is that the US can no longer afford or doesn`t want to pay for 2,500 Lightning IIs` and have no money left for other assets, such as long range strike aircraft/bombers. Yes, it would push up the cost of F-35 ownership across the board but what does the air force do? Go without a long range strike asset and "make do" with the Lightnings range and rely on IFR, buddy refueling to fill the gap? A lot of people have to face up to the fact that cold war spending on the mil` just doesn`t happen any more...look at the cut-backs in other branches, Navy, Army etc since the end of the 1980s`.

That is the kind of tactic the UK has enforced for years with our underfunded military, the RAF just "makes do" with what they have. I can`t see the USAF liking that particular flavour very much...

I saw a Lightning II buy dwindling a long time ago, like others. Obviously not official but does the air force , Navy and MC really need 2,500 copies?

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fox100
PostPosted: Jun 21, 2007 - 11:00 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Despite all the glitz and glamor of this airplane (of which I see none) its a throwback to an era of the not so distant past when we were planning missions out of England into European targets... The F-35 despite its ability to serve as a flying Cisco Systems internet hub, is a relic, and it only just started flying.

The 35 takes nothing into account of basing rights going the way of smokers rights in NYC. The 35 takes nothing into account of needing to fly long distance to do more than simply drop TWO... count them, ONE, TWO, bombs without lighting up every radar scope from horizon to horizon.

The 35 takes nothing into account for supercruising at near M2 airspeeds, while at high high high altitudes (for long distances) and tossing LO weapons to targets more commonly associated with needing cruise missiles to hit.

And don't roll out the ol, "Well the SR-71 was visible xy&z miles away and easily targeted..." and all that yippity yap. There are sooooo many ways to fly high and fast and foil missiles and directed energy weapons... of course not in thr white world shall we speak of such capabilities.

What we needed was more (much more) F-22's, more than 2 dozen Spirits, and something that met halfway between the two such as the "F/B-23" that could be flown off a carrier (possibly). What we didn't need is a 2 bomb carrying Cisco Systems web hub with a pint sized payload and no match in a gun duel between the Suks/Migs rolling off the lines now and not too long from now.

The F-35 is a dinosaur of an airframe for wars that we wont see fought. Its basically the same ol' same ol' from the mid to late 80's (except for the micro's). Christ on his cross, we actually had better ideas in the actual 80s.
But lets just wipe them under the carpet, burry them in the sand, or crush 'em to pieces like is normally done.

It also seems odd, rather odd, that the Pentagon would whip a new plane so tanker dependant (if you're really going to not have basing rights which we've known for YEARS) and knowing that (or claiming that) its KC's are on the verge of falling apart from corrosion and metal fatigue. Tell me its not going to be a tanker hog with its wings are full of iron and missiles!

Of all that the US is capable of, the F-35 is a blemish that needs to get itself canceled so that we can get what we DO need. Its a shame how many of MY dollars have been wasted on this pig dog.
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fox100
PostPosted: Jun 21, 2007 - 11:07 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Lightndattic wrote:
Do the authors of that study realize the F-35 won't be the only strike asset in a theater? So it's not able to reach China from Kadena (neither can the F-16 today), that's what heavy, long ranged bombers are for. If it comes down to needing to use F-35 ranged aircraft over China, they likely wouldn't be flying from Okinawa, they'd be flying from Taiwan, carriers in the S China Sea or possibly S Korea.


HLRB's? What 40 year old Buffs? 2 dozen Spirits? 60 something Bones?
Face the facts, we've let the bomber force become an empty shell of a force. Do you know how very maintenence needy our buffs are?? Everything on the B-2 is classified, but its known to be a hangar queen for her LO applications. Pound for pound, dollar for dollar, the Bone WAS the way to go and we threw away that production capability a long time ago kid.

Welcome to The Brave New World.
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PostPosted: Jun 21, 2007 - 11:41 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Quote:
I read that and thought "yeah let's find a way to jack the F-35's price up even higher so we can't buy any


My thoughts exactly. Frankly their argument does'nt hold water. Between the cruise missile carrying Ohios and the 150 or so heavy bombers anything that has to be hit can be hit. Naval air is within range of 80 percent of the world's population. Let's not also forget F-15Es and Raptors. The key here is going to be having enough tankers to support all this and we do now and it is being addressed for the future as well.

Further, why would we need to perform sustained combat operations a thousand miles into enemy territory. Aside from nuclear strike (which was a one time thing) it was not a requirement of the cold war and it's certainly not required now. If necessary, China, Russia and India can all be bludgeoned back into the stone age with what we have now.

Contrary to the "think tank's" conclusion, situations like Afghanistan virtually beg for a jet like the F-35B. The airforce and marines can ferry them into small primitive airstrips deep inland. From there they can quickly be on station to provide CAS and point air defence.

Will the US buy fewer JSF's. Perhaps, but only because the airforce wants more Raptors and the Navy has to replace it's older legacy Hornets.
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Corsair1963
PostPosted: Jun 23, 2007 - 02:54 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Lightndattic wrote:
Do the authors of that study realize the F-35 won't be the only strike asset in a theater? So it's not able to reach China from Kadena (neither can the F-16 today), that's what heavy, long ranged bombers are for. If it comes down to needing to use F-35 ranged aircraft over China, they likely wouldn't be flying from Okinawa, they'd be flying from Taiwan, carriers in the S China Sea or possibly S Korea.



So, let cut the only type of the three to have a real impact on a Tawian/China conflict. Oh, that makes sense............ Shocked
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Corsair1963
PostPosted: Jun 23, 2007 - 03:06 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Thumper3181 wrote:
Quote:
I read that and thought "yeah let's find a way to jack the F-35's price up even higher so we can't buy any


My thoughts exactly. Frankly their argument does'nt hold water. Between the cruise missile carrying Ohios and the 150 or so heavy bombers anything that has to be hit can be hit. Naval air is within range of 80 percent of the world's population. Let's not also forget F-15Es and Raptors. The key here is going to be having enough tankers to support all this and we do now and it is being addressed for the future as well.

Further, why would we need to perform sustained combat operations a thousand miles into enemy territory. Aside from nuclear strike (which was a one time thing) it was not a requirement of the cold war and it's certainly not required now. If necessary, China, Russia and India can all be bludgeoned back into the stone age with what we have now.

Contrary to the "think tank's" conclusion, situations like Afghanistan virtually beg for a jet like the F-35B. The airforce and marines can ferry them into small primitive airstrips deep inland. From there they can quickly be on station to provide CAS and point air defence.

Will the US buy fewer JSF's. Perhaps, but only because the airforce wants more Raptors and the Navy has to replace it's older legacy Hornets.



Really, while the Politics of the moment may cut a few F-35's. In the long run I believe the Lightning will become very sucessful. Just take a minute and look around the world at all of the types that will shortly need to be replaced! As a matter of fact most major countries have been holding off fighter purchases until the F-35 becomes available! Let's be honest if the Lightning just replaced the domestic market of US F-16's and F/A-18's it would be considered wildly successful by modern fighters standard! Which, is only a very small percentage of the future fighter market expected in the next 10-20 years..................funny how some can't see there hand in front of there face???? Wink
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Corsair1963
PostPosted: Jun 23, 2007 - 03:26 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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You know to me the most practical option and the one that makes the most sense on saving money on the JSF Program. Has been somehow left out??? Why not cut the F-35A model and replace it with a landbased F-35C? This is hardly new as current F/A-18 Hornets have operated from lanbases for years! (USMC, RCAF,RAAF,etc.) Remember, the whole reason behind the JSF was to mix and match. Now this wouldn't mean the UASF couldn't still custom fit there Lightnings. For example they still could carry a internal gun or USAF refueling sytem. They would of course have to take the heavier naval landing gear but so what. That's hardly a non-stater! In return the F-35 could be produced in just two types and in very large numbers with benifits for all sides. Further, the USAF could operate a mixed fleet of F-35's. Which, is more than likely going to happen at some point regardless. As the current F-16's and A-10's fly totally different missions. With the F-16 being replaced by CTOL F-35A (C)'s and the A-10's being of course replaced by STOVL F-35B's.
Yet, in the end everyone get a model and the larger the order and the fewer types the cheaper the overall program would be..........personally the GAO, CSBA, and the Politicians make me sick! Bang Head
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dwightlooi
PostPosted: Jun 23, 2007 - 06:42 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Corsair1963 wrote:
You know to me the most practical option and the one that makes the most sense on saving money on the JSF Program. Has been somehow left out??? Why not cut the F-35A model and replace it with a landbased F-35C? This is hardly new as current F/A-18 Hornets have operated from lanbases for years! (USMC, RCAF,RAAF,etc.) Remember, the whole reason behind the JSF was to mix and match. Now this wouldn't mean the UASF couldn't still custom fit there Lightnings. For example they still could carry a internal gun or USAF refueling sytem. They would of course have to take the heavier naval landing gear but so what. That's hardly a non-stater! In return the F-35 could be produced in just two types and in very large numbers with benifits for all sides. Further, the USAF could operate a mixed fleet of F-35's. Which, is more than likely going to happen at some point regardless. As the current F-16's and A-10's fly totally different missions. With the F-16 being replaced by CTOL F-35A (C)'s and the A-10's being of course replaced by STOVL F-35B's.
Yet, in the end everyone get a model and the larger the order and the fewer types the cheaper the overall program would be..........personally the GAO, CSBA, and the Politicians make me sick! Bang Head


I would have made sense to do that in 1998. But now that the A version's airframe development and tool up is pretty much complete, dropping it saves zero R&D costs. Given the commonality of engines, avionics, sensors, subsystems, etc, you are not saving much if any money on maintenance either.

At this point, it'll be like saying lets go with only F-15Es instead of a mixed F-15C/E fleet. Won't save you any R&D since both versions have already been developed. Won't save you much if any operational costs either given the commonality.
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Corsair1963
PostPosted: Jun 23, 2007 - 10:43 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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dwightlooi wrote:
I would have made sense to do that in 1998. But now that the A version's airframe development and tool up is pretty much complete, dropping it saves zero R&D costs. Given the commonality of engines, avionics, sensors, subsystems, etc, you are not saving much if any money on maintenance either.

At this point, it'll be like saying lets go with only F-15Es instead of a mixed F-15C/E fleet. Won't save you any R&D since both versions have already been developed. Won't save you much if any operational costs either given the commonality.


Clearly, its to late and it would never happen for political reasons. Really, to bad as this is the perfect role for Goverment! Which, is to be a meditator and to look at the overall picture. (i.e. not choose sides)
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elp
PostPosted: Jun 24, 2007 - 03:12 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Corsair1963 wrote:
You know to me the most practical option and the one that makes the most sense on saving money on the JSF Program. Has been somehow left out??? Why not cut the F-35A model and replace it with a landbased F-35C? This is hardly new as current F/A-18 Hornets have operated from lanbases for years! (USMC, RCAF,RAAF,etc.) Remember, the whole reason behind the JSF was to mix and match. Now this wouldn't mean the UASF couldn't still custom fit there Lightnings. For example they still could carry a internal gun or USAF refueling sytem. They would of course have to take the heavier naval landing gear but so what. That's hardly a non-stater! In return the F-35 could be produced in just two types and in very large numbers with benifits for all sides. Further, the USAF could operate a mixed fleet of F-35's. Which, is more than likely going to happen at some point regardless. As the current F-16's and A-10's fly totally different missions. With the F-16 being replaced by CTOL F-35A (C)'s and the A-10's being of course replaced by STOVL F-35B's.
Yet, in the end everyone get a model and the larger the order and the fewer types the cheaper the overall program would be..........personally the GAO, CSBA, and the Politicians make me sick! Bang Head


Yet we need more medium range strike aircraft and more long range strike aircraft, not a gross imbalance of short range aircraft. Which is exactly were we are headed. This is even more important as years go by, we have less and less foreign bases to fly from. And a congress that has a large appetite for Team America: World Police, still refuses to put more funds into defense so the funding matches the ops tempo. A congressman is more interested in how much graft they can get from a contractor like LM so they have enough cash to do the next election campaign and not what is needed for Defense. Don't confuse Congress with having a clue about what is best for a valid defense of the nation. They are more interested in a valid gravy train of graft.

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