Forum: F-35 Lightning II

What is your guess as to the total procurement costs/expenses for such an initial program (including total unprecedented goods and services for this unprecedented platform)?

When would the first examples be delivered, if USgovt approves deal?

Just curious.

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Using RAAF's Super Hornet purchase as a model, i venture to guess that it will take at least $8 billions to get and operate 24 F35 from zero up, probably not including training for air and ground crews, maintenance, cost to fix design glitches, among other things. (RAAF purchased 24 F18Fs with spare and logistic support for about $6.6 billions.)

As for the timeline, few people outside the immediate industrial circle can probably say with more accuracy than "sometime in foreseeable future." That's my opinion, of course, and i've been a stubborn F35 skeptic Doh

Newbie Joined: May 19, 2008 Posts: 3 Status: Offline

Interesting, and just where would Isreal get around $8 billion dollars. I always wondered where Isreal got their money to buy F-15's, F-16's and all the other expensive stuff. I mean look how small it is. What is their GNP, and what percent goes to defense?

Elite Joined: Jul 11, 2007 Posts: 664 Status: Offline

World Bank?

Sponsored by the US of A.

OMON wrote:

Interesting, and just where would Isreal get around $8 billion dollars. I always wondered where Isreal got their money to buy F-15's, F-16's and all the other expensive stuff. I mean look how small it is. What is their GNP, and what percent goes to defense?

I imagine you are being sarcastic, knowing full well that Israel receives billions of dollars in U.S. funds for its defense every year. However, you should also know Israel has one of the most high-tech, advanced economies in the world today. Their defense sector, as you can well imagine, is especially impressive.

OMON wrote:

Interesting, and just where would Isreal get around $8 billion dollars. I always wondered where Isreal got their money to buy F-15's, F-16's and all the other expensive stuff. I mean look how small it is. What is their GNP, and what percent goes to defense?

Search Google and Wikipedia for FMF, FMS and Offset deals.

My personal take is that Israel should be approved for F-35s only if regional foes such as Syria or Iran are first sold systems such as Mig-31, Su-35 or Mig-35. Otherwise such F-35 sales might in fact sway foes (via Kremlin) to counter with said advanced platforms. I'd rather submit for the debate, advanced follow-on F-16 mods or even new F-15 mod. The fewer F-35 proliferation to non-8 partners the better, imo, so as to discourage advanced Su/Mig proliferation the same. Just my take. Besides, I'm sorry to say... F-35 is going to be a major expense and hasn't even completed successful testing yet, to boot. Wait for 2012 at least, imo, before authorizing US funded FMS program in this case.

geogen wrote:

My personal take is that Israel should be approved for F-35s only if regional foes such as Syria or Iran are first sold systems such as Mig-31, Su-35 or Mig-35. Otherwise such F-35 sales might in fact sway foes (via Kremlin) to counter with said advanced platforms. I'd rather submit for the debate, advanced follow-on F-16 mods or even new F-15 mod. The fewer F-35 proliferation to non-8 partners the better, imo, so as to discourage advanced Su/Mig proliferation the same. Just my take. Besides, I'm sorry to say... F-35 is going to be a major expense and hasn't even completed successful testing yet, to boot. Wait for 2012 at least, imo, before authorizing US funded FMS program in this case.

While I appreciate what you are trying to say, that has never been the U.S. stance regarding providing advance weaponry to Israel. What you're describing sounds a lot more like the U.S.'s attitude toward, say, South America (Chile and while still friendly, Venezuela) or to Taiwan, which wasn't approved for the AMRAAM until relatively recently with the advent of advanced Sukhois in China.

The U.S.'s position regarding Israel has always been to provide Israel with the most advanced weapons available to the U.S. early to keep it far ahead of any predicted or perceived threat to its security. For instance, Israel was among the first countries to receive the F-15 and F-16 (which they then went on to make the most advanced of their respective types anywhere on the planet through local mods, which they'll also do with the F-35). There is no reason to believe that policy will change, no matter who the next president is (both Obama and McCain are staunchly supportive of a strong Israel). Far be it for me to tell you what you believe should happen. I am merely pointing out what will, in fact, happen.

I have also seen the media reports regarding the initial Israeli buy of 25 F-35s. There's not much that's new, however, in this latest "news" story. It was announced last November that the Israeli air force intends to purchase a total of 100 F-35s over the next decade, in batches of 25 aircraft each:
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... fleet.html

No production contract has yet been signed, and all of the essential details regarding cost, and the specifics regarding the integration of Israeli weapons and avionics into the F-35 have not been worked out. As currently planned, the Israelis are not expected to sign a contract for F-35 deliveries until 2009, with first deliveries in 2014.

As for why the Israelis should receive the F-35, that should be self evident. After seeing the recently released details regarding Israel's bombing of Syria's would-be nuclear weapons program last September, I am convinced that Israel's fleet of 102 F-16I's is one of the best investments that US taxpayers have ever made. Unlike most of the nations that are slated to receive the F-35, the Israelis actually know how to fight, and are willing to use them - even in circumstances where the US is restricted by political concerns from acting in our own best interest. Let the Israelis have as many F-35s as the FMS program can afford, and let Iran's nuclear program follow the example set by Saddam's and Syria's.

Newbie Joined: May 19, 2008 Posts: 3 Status: Offline

[quote="Obamanite
I imagine you are being sarcastic, knowing full well that Israel receives billions of dollars in U.S. funds for its defense every year. However, you should also know Israel has one of the most high-tech, advanced economies in the world today. Their defense sector, as you can well imagine, is especially impressive.[/quote]

Actually no I wasn't. I knew Isreal did receive aid, but billions of dollars (if that is in the right price range) really threw me. Going off a quick Google search I see Isreal's 2005 GNP was $129 Billion, which I guess it isn't too bad considering it's size.

I guess I'm one of those old goats who believes most of the overseas military aid we give out could be better spent at home. (i.e..Better military housing, hospitals, pay..etc..).

Isreal's Air Force doesn't seem to be having any problems dealing out kick **** to all this around them, so unless they can pay upfront (not saying they can't), then they should have to make due with what they have.

I should check around and see what percent of their GNP is dedicated to defense.

OMON wrote:

Actually no I wasn't. I knew Isreal did receive aid, but billions of dollars (if that is in the right price range) really threw me. Going off a quick Google search I see Isreal's 2005 GNP was $129 Billion, which I guess it isn't too bad considering it's size.

I guess I'm one of those old goats who believes most of the overseas military aid we give out could be better spent at home. (i.e..Better military housing, hospitals, pay..etc..).

Isreal's Air Force doesn't seem to be having any problems dealing out kick **** to all this around them, so unless they can pay upfront (not saying they can't), then they should have to make due with what they have.

I should check around and see what percent of their GNP is dedicated to defense.

I hear you, and I understand that many feel such aid would be better spent at home. However, the U.S. doesn't just "give out" such aid because it's being "nice". There are fundamental, strategic interests at play such that in reality it is more an investment in U.S. national security and foreign policy goals than it is "aid", which in many ways is a misnomer. As a previous poster pointed out, there are things Israel can do that the U.S. can't/won't, and as such, they advance a whole host of U.S. Middle East policy goals without us getting our own hands dirty. Just look at their destruction of Iraq's nuclear program, followed by Syria's. Who knows if Iran is next in their target set...

tmofarrvl wrote:

I have also seen the media reports regarding the initial Israeli buy of 25 F-35s. There's not much that's new, however, in this latest "news" story. It was announced last November that the Israeli air force intends to purchase a total of 100 F-35s over the next decade, in batches of 25 aircraft each:
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... fleet.html

No production contract has yet been signed, and all of the essential details regarding cost, and the specifics regarding the integration of Israeli weapons and avionics into the F-35 have not been worked out. As currently planned, the Israelis are not expected to sign a contract for F-35 deliveries until 2009, with first deliveries in 2014.

As for why the Israelis should receive the F-35, that should be self evident. After seeing the recently released details regarding Israel's bombing of Syria's would-be nuclear weapons program last September, I am convinced that Israel's fleet of 102 F-16I's is one of the best investments that US taxpayers have ever made. Unlike most of the nations that are slated to receive the F-35, the Israelis actually know how to fight, and are willing to use them - even in circumstances where the US is restricted by political concerns from acting in our own best interest. Let the Israelis have as many F-35s as the FMS program can afford, and let Iran's nuclear program follow the example set by Saddam's and Syria's.

Tmo, I'd have to actually raise a cautionary flag on that one. Such a unilateral declaration by IAF today, to absolutely use the 2015 F-35s pre-emptively on Iran, would not only possibly put more international sales of F-35 under further scrutiny (by potential customers), but could indeed accelerate Iranian procurement of S-400/500/Su-35 etc and further entrench Hardliner rule, rather than the opposite.

I could be wrong in my estimates, but it's just the way I currently see it. Either way Israel needs a peace agreement with Syria and ultimately, with Iran. Anyone unconditionally opposing such eventual peace agreements imo deserve an award for Mid-East hot-head warrior for life.

Respects.

OMON wrote:' I should check around and see what percentage of GNP they spend at defense'. Well until the middle of the eighties they used 25% of their GNP for defense, which caused some serious economic problems, like a very high annual inflation. Shimon Peres decided to cut this percentage below the 10% mark and some sources estimate it around 8%, compare this with the 4-5% of the USA and 1 - 1.4% of a lot of European NATO countries.
Unlike the US Armed Forces with their professionally paid personnel, the IDF is a people's army: they have approx 40,000 carreer-makers who earn on a average NIS 15,000/ USD 4,644 per month and all others are conscripts. Ten years ago a conscript earned between the green lines 300 shekel / USD 93, 500 shekel / USD155 in Gaza en Westbank and 1,000 shekel / USD 310 per month in Lebanon. In 2002, a conscript earned between the green lines: 400 shekel and 600 shekel in Gaza, Samaria & Judea. With this kind of army, you have enough duck-it to pay for stuff like F-15s, Patriots etc.

Between 1948 and the period in which Richard Nixon inhabited 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, the Israelies bought US weapons via cheap or (I'am not sure) 0%-interest loans. After the Yom Kippur war in 1973, which was won by the Israelies thanks to very fast weapon deliveries by the US, otherwise they had propably lost the war. Nixon decided to give the State Israel annual militairy aid, this is not a Santa Claus present, it is just pragmatic behavior. The Nixon govenment reasoned that it is cheaper to send over a lot of loot (money),which makes a U-turn via arms sales, than tens of thousands US servicemen like in South Korea with all the associated costs and risks. Without US boot s on Israeli soil, you do not get directly involved in that West-Asian beehive.

geogen wrote:

Tmo, I'd have to actually raise a cautionary flag on that one. Such a unilateral declaration by IAF today, to absolutely use the 2015 F-35s pre-emptively on Iran, would not only possibly put more international sales of F-35 under further scrutiny (by potential customers), but could indeed accelerate Iranian procurement of S-400/500/Su-35 etc and further entrench Hardliner rule, rather than the opposite.

I could be wrong in my estimates, but it's just the way I currently see it. Either way Israel needs a peace agreement with Syria and ultimately, with Iran. Anyone unconditionally opposing such eventual peace agreements imo deserve an award for Mid-East hot-head warrior for life.

Respects.

I hope that I am wrong, and that diplomacy prevails. I just haven't seen any evidence that it has succeeded in disarming Iran's nuclear intentions, as the latest news reports on Iran's test program confirm:
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribun ... _05_30.asp

As I recall one US Congressman saying more than a decade ago, "I am not a hawk, I am a dove. A heavily armed dove."

I don't have to like the situation in the world today. But it won't get any better by wishing it so. If and when diplomacy fails, it's better to have an alternative to fall back on than no alternative at all.

Forum: F-35 Lightning II

IAF wants 25 F-35s, for starters?