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Active Member Joined: Aug 28, 2006 Posts: 191

"Oh and you can see that I've been around here longer than you...if you look, it will tell you when I joined along with my location and my number of posts. Its viewable to the left of the posts you see here....Check"

Once again, too literal. Yes, knowledge and experience is dictated by the number of posts. I stand corrected.

What it represents is what you see when you go to the store, The growing sophistication of Chinese manufacturing capability. They are growing by leaps and bounds. It's far easier to catch up than to be the first. By the way, read the papers. We will soon see the first Chinese cars in the US. Yes, the will be a little rough, but so was Hyundai to start with. Cherry is also looking to buy Chrysler from MB.

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Enthusiast Joined: Nov 23, 2006 Posts: 29 Status: Offline

I have little doubt that the Russians certainly can match or come close to matching the F-22’s general aerodynamic performance. They may match the ‘22’s avionics. The real wildcard here is VLO technology. We now little about Russian LO programs and even less about Chinese LO programs. What is obvious is that neither has any VLO platforms in line service and they may not even have any technology demonstrators. This indicates that most of their VLO work is on the research level with little or no practical experience. They will of course not be starting from a cold start like the US basically did during the 1970s, but it’s unlikely that they will be able to match the F-22 or F-35’s signatures over the all aspects (in fact their RCS goals may be quite different with less focus on all aspect stealth) without such experience. The coatings and maintenance of the signature may be more difficult as well.

One of the real secrets to deploying a practical VLO platform is in the design and manufacturing techniques. The US is now on their 4th or 5th (depending on what you consider the 1st generation “stealth” platform”) stealth platform plus numerous known demonstrator vehicles. Of the one or two known Russian demonstrator programs, both were merely material based- extensive applications of RAM on conventional airframes. While I have no doubt that there was/is more classified programs for the Russians and Chinese, I find it doubtful that they will have the same success the Americans have had in the timeframe proposed here. In fact, I find it doubtful that either country would be able to produce a true F-22 analogue (or F-35 for that matter) in any less time then the Americans did themselves.

The fact that they are supposedly starting building the first PAK-FA prototype this year means that at earliest the first flight may be late 2008 and most likely 2009. All the latest generation jets – F-22, Typhoon, and Rafale – took right around 10 years from first prototype to IOC. I doubt that the Russians could better this; this is a larger technological leap for them than it was for the Americans. So I would wager a realistic IOC in squadron service would be around 2020. Incidentally, their budget and expected flyaway costs for the PAK-FA are ridiculously optimistic. Either their new jet will have significantly less capability (by design which is likely IMO) or they are talking out their rear ends.

BDF

Active Member Joined: Aug 28, 2006 Posts: 191

I'd agree with that generally. I'm not suggesting that either can match or exceed the F-22. I do think it's possible for them, meaning Russia alone, or in concert with the Chinese, to approximate the signature of the F-117. After all, they do have in their possession via Serbia pieces of the 117. I do think the performance/Supercruise of the F-22 would be the easiest to attain, I would assume multi axis TVC, Sensor fusion has already been shown on the Mig 35.

Assuming they choose to try, I'm not suggesting that they can build a true F-22 equal. What I am saying is that they will close the gap, perhaps closer than the pundants think, build it potentially in large numbers, and sell it to almost anyone. They can go another route, build a Euro Canard type, or a forward swept wing, and/or forgo stealth altogether. But whatever they build will be better than the Mig35, and SU30MKI, each a superb aircraft.

As for the timing issues, consider the following. Less political bickering than Europe, less oversight constraints than the US. No hazmat concerns, no EPA, no OMB, no congress. Each nation can do this project essentially in seclusion. While they have a high bar to match, they have less outside restrictions to impeed their progress. What will be most interesting to see is if they pool their resources or each go it alone.

bf-fly wrote:

I'd agree with that generally. I'm not suggesting that either can match or exceed the F-22. I do think it's possible for them, meaning Russia alone, or in concert with the Chinese, to approximate the signature of the F-117. After all, they do have in their possession via Serbia pieces of the 117.

But having pieces of an F-117 would not allow someone, even someone well versed in reverse-engineering, to make an "F-117". Coatings are only a small part of the LO puzzle. I'd be willing to go as far as saying that if someone were to actually get their hands on an actual (not 'smashed') F-117, it would still be relatively difficult to replicate with comperable results.

The total in some cases is greater than a sum of the parts.

Mike

Active Member Joined: Aug 28, 2006 Posts: 191

True as well, but have we forgotten that stealth breakthroughs started with an obscure Russians study on radar reflection? Have Blue was circa 1975, we are now over 30 years later. The laptop I'm using right now isn't too far away from a Cray supercomputer of that time period. I suspect the Russians in some lab somewhere have been working on stealth for quite sometime, likely since the mid eighties. As for pieces, I think they have more than a few. If the NTSB can reconstruct a crashed airliner, then so can the Russians. They are very close historically to Serbia whcih shot down the 117 about 8 years ago.

If Stealth was all things and everything, then the F-22 wouldn't carry AIM-9's and a gun, or the B-2 wouldn't carry defensive EW. We think too often about 1 on 1 scenarios. How about a hugh furball over enemy territory where the enemy already knows the 22 is involved. How about some mach 2 supercruiser semi stealth aircraft entering the fray with another bunch going after the AWACS, sound easy?

All I'm saying is do not think the Russians are somehow third class aircraft builders, if you do, they will suprise you the hard way.

Elite 1K Joined: Aug 01, 2006 Posts: 1003 Status: Offline

bf-fly wrote:

All I'm saying is do not think the Russians are somehow third class aircraft builders, if you do, they will suprise you the hard way.

No body is saying that they are third class anything. The problem is that they have much less resources and funding than previous and current US programs going back a decade and a half. Going to third world India for funding tells you something about the budgetary tightness. They are behind in just about every technological area from composite technology to radars to avionics to focal plane IR arrays to planar array antennas to stealth implementations etc. There is no question that they'll put up a good effort based on what they have and can undertake.

I don't think achieving F-117 stealth level is beyond them. However, achieving it while also matching an F-22 or even an F-35's very low observables level is unlikely. And even they manage it, in today's air combat stealth is everything. If they are pulling last generation stealth with improved speed and agility they lose. Let's put this way, an aircraft that beats the F-22 in performance (say Mach 2 cruise, Mach 2.5 max, slightly greater agility) but has a 0.05 sq-m RCS will be totally outclassed by the F-35.

Active Member Joined: Aug 28, 2006 Posts: 191

Quote:

Let's put this way, an aircraft that beats the F-22 in performance (say Mach 2 cruise, Mach 2.5 max, slightly greater agility) but has a 0.05 sq-m RCS will be totally outclassed by the F-35.

I think that would be true in a simplified battlefield without ECM, EW, tactics, and friendly radar. Yes, meeting out in the middle of the Ocean over neutral ground one on one is one thing, meeting over enemy territory is quite another.

Quote:

I don't think achieving F-117 stealth level is beyond them

As I have said. Now make it a supercruiser, over friendly territory and bases, in a chaotic battlefront guided by ground radars designed to find stealth a/c. It will be a dangerous foe.

Newbie Joined: Feb 27, 2005 Posts: 14 Status: Offline

I noted earlier that Pravda is a Russian tabloid. As inaccurate as the article may be, it is not an indictment of Russian journalism, just as the National Enquirer is not an indictment of American journalism. Tabloids do not strive for journalism excellence, at least not as their primary goal.

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