Forum: F-35 Lightning II

Cost overruns still plague F-35 joint strike fighter, GAO says
Dave Montgomery, McClatchy News Service
03/16/2007

Lockheed Martin's F-35 joint strike fighter, conceived as a versatile and affordable fighter for the United States and its allies, continues to be plagued by rising costs that have boosted the per-unit price tag by 12 percent over the past three years, according to a government report released Thursday.

But the Defense Department challenged the conclusions of the Government Accountability Office, the chief investigative arm of Congress, and rebuffed the GAO's recommendations to limit F-35 production at 24 aircraft year through the end of the decade.

Now entering its sixth year of development, the joint strike fighter, also known as the F-35 Lightning II, is the nation's most expensive weapons program. The total cost of development and production is projected at $276.5 billion, and the Department of Defense estimates eventually spending a total of $623 billion to purchase, operate and support the strike fighter fleet, the GAO said.

Lockheed Martin leads a manufacturing team that also includes Northrop Grumman and British-based BAE Systems. The aircraft is being assembled at Lockheed's plant in Fort Worth and made its first test flight on Dec. 15.

"Accurately predicting JSF costs and schedule and ensuring sufficient funding will likely be key challenges facing the program in the future," the report said. The program will demand "unprecedented funding" over the next two decades - more than $12.6 billion a year on average through 2027, the GAO said.

The GAO called for a 24-a-year production cap until each of the three planned F-35 variants have demonstrated "basic flying qualities" in flight tests through 2010. But the Pentagon, in a strong endorsement of the F-35, defended its acquisition strategy and said the program will continue to ramp up toward full-rate production of at least 240 a year by 2014.

"The department believes that a major manufacturing or design flaw, requiring extensive delay of the program, is unlikely," the Pentagon said in its response, which was included in the GAO report.

Lockheed spokesman John Smith said F-35s will log 1,350 test flights before the military receives the first production aircraft in 2009.

"The F-35 program is demonstrating affordability, design stability, reliable cost forecasts and adherence to schedules," Smith said.

The GAO acknowledged that the F-35 program is making progress but said the government will ultimately "be buying fewer aircraft for a greater financial investment" because of setbacks caused by early delays and design problems.

Total projected acquisition costs have increased by $31.6 billion since 2004. The program has confronted delays in several "key events," including the start of the flight test program, delivery of the first production representative development aircraft and testing of critical mission systems.

The average cost per airplane, the report said, has risen from $82 million to almost $95 million. That figure is sharply at odds with the government projections, which ranges from $47 million to $60 million, depending on the variant.

The aircraft is being built in three versions: a conventional takeoff and landing version for the Air Force, a Navy version that can take off and land on aircraft carriers, and a model for the Marines than can make short takeoffs and vertical landings. Production for the U.S. military is expected to continue through at least 2027.

President Bush's 2008 defense budget calls for $6.1 billion in 2008 to build a total of 12 F-35s - six for the Air Force and six for the Navy. The proposed expenditure marks a substantial increase over the $4.9 billion that Congress allocated for 2007, although original plans envisioned a total of 24 in 2008.

Current plans call for 2,458 planes for services in the United States and Great Britain, although the Lockheed-led manufacturing team hopes to sell perhaps thousands more to other foreign customers.

Planners originally envisioned a total of 2,988 aircraft, but the overall size of the purchase has been scaled back because of past design problems that "affected the aircraft's ability to meet key performance requirements," the GAO said.

"The program's inability to meet its ambitious goals resulted in (the Defense) Department's failing to deliver on the business case that justified initial investment in the JSF," the report said. "As a result, purchase quantities have been reduced, total program costs have increased, and delivery of the initial aircraft has been delayed."

Hill Air Force Base: Turbulence ahead for jet fighter
03/16/2007

Major challenges lie ahead for the Joint Strike Fighter, the next-generation jet fighter expected to be key to the future of Hill Air Force Base, a report to Congress said Thursday.

While the Pentagon has already begun purchasing the planes, questions remain about the design, manufacturing and time frame for production, the Government Accountability Office, Congress' investigative arm, reported.

As a result, there is a "very significant risk" that the program, already saddled with a ballooning price and delays, could experience further cost increases and more missed deadlines, the GAO said. More problems could arise as the fighter is flight-tested.

Despite the hurdles for the fighter, Rep. Rob Bishop, R-Utah, says the Pentagon should remain committed to the program so the military has the technology "critical to our entire national defense."

"Whenever the next level of military hardware or technology is developed, there are going to be challenges. That doesn't mean we give up," Bishop said. "The F-35 represents the next level, and it is what will help us maintain air superiority - something we've taken for granted for probably too long." Designed as the centerpiece of the Pentagon's future air strike capability, the F-35 Lightning II has been put on an aggressive development and acquisition schedule. Along the way, the cost has increased dramatically from a projected $81 million per plane in 2001 to $112 million as of 2005.

The cost of the program has risen $19.8 billion since the GAO last reviewed the project one year ago.

In October, the Air Force announced that the 388th Fighter Wing at Hill Air Force Base would be one of the units selected as the home for operational squadrons of the F-35, pending completion of environmental analyses.

The GAO recommended that the Pentagon limit its future production to no more than 24 planes a year to reduce risk, but the Pentagon rejected that suggestion, saying a major design flaw is unlikely and the planes would cost more if the procurement is extended.

The Bush administration had planned to ask Congress to provide funds for two planes in the emergency war supplemental budget, but it later removed the money from the request, using it instead to fund a surge of troops in Iraq. It has also reduced the number of fighters in the 2008 budget.

Since the program began, the projected number of fighters the department plans to purchase has been scaled back from 2,998 to 2,458.

The fighter program is expected to cost, on average, $12.6 billion a year over the next 20 years. It will have to compete with other big-ticket defense programs, such as the missile defense system.

"Escalating costs are a by-product of delays in funding and cuts in the number of planes to be built," Bishop said. "But the bottom line is they need to be funded and built."

Source: The Salt Lake Tribune

Look at it this way. To make a jet that pushes the limits of capability, you have to break a few eggs. If you could build exactly what you predicted without surprises, then you aren't pushing very hard. Goes with the territory.

Look at it this way. To make a jet that pushes the limits of capability, you have to break a few eggs. If you could build exactly what you predicted without surprises, then you aren't pushing very hard. Goes with the territory.

Look at it this way. To make a jet that pushes the limits of capability, you have to break a few eggs. If you could build exactly what you predicted without surprises, then you aren't pushing very hard. Goes with the territory.

Like the saying goes: don't piss on my back and tell me its raining.

Fighter efforts show need for Raptor, JSF buys, Wynne says

By Michael Fabey, Aerospace Daily & Defense Report
03/20/2007

Greater Russian and Chinese efforts to sell their so-called fifth-generation fighter planes provide another example of why the U.S. Air Force needs to stick to its stated purchases of the F-22 Raptor and F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), said Michael Wynne, Air Force secretary.

Speaking about the Russian and Chinese efforts, Wynne said, "They see what we're doing. "The so-called Chinese fifth-generation variant, Wynne pointed out, "looks like a European Tornado."

As for the Russian Sukhoi entries, "We have great respect for that," Wynne said March 19 at a breakfast speech on Capitol Hill.

The Russians and Chinese are attempting to shop the aircraft on the international market to countries like India.

Sukhoi are known for their so-called "Cobra" maneuvers at international air shows - where the aircraft slows and the nose comes up and nearly backward before quickly striking downward, like a snake strike.

During an in-flight demonstration for the DAILY in the fall, the Air Force showed the Raptor could also do the same maneuver.

But it's stealth, speed, precision and special radar capability that makes fifth-generation fighters, Wynne said. And, he added, the Air Force doesn't want to go back to its fourth-generation aircraft. That's why the service included the three JSFs, for about $180 million each, in its emergency supplemental requests.

The Air Force has lost aircraft in war operations and needs to replace them, Wynne said. But the service doesn't want the F-16s being made for the United Arab Emirates or the F-15s being made for Korea. There are not running lines for those aircraft suitable for American needs, he said.

Thus, the supplemental requests for the new aircraft, which have been denied.

The Air Force is fighting another battle for its F-22s. While the Pentagon has capped the buy at 183 aircraft, the service says it needs 381 - a number Wynne emphasized again March 19. The service has now bought 83, he said.

The aircraft are needed to replace previous stealthy aircraft such as B-2s and F-117s, which are dwindling in numbers or being retired.

Part of the reason for the larger buy, Wynne said, is to help keep the fifth-generation line running until the F-35s start being produced. The Air Force plans to buy 1,763 JSFs. "But we're not sure our arguments will be heard," he said. Wynne said he simply lacks the money to buy the number of aircraft he needs and wants to buy every year.