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F-35 cost overruns



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dwightlooi
PostPosted: Apr 11, 2007 - 12:14 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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fox100 wrote:

Everything is defeatable. Stealth (EM/IR) are defeatable. Since day one of wood and fabric airplanes, tactics have been hit and run. There is no such thing as an invisble plane. Wonder Woman's jet isn't real. Anything sighted can be shot to put it simply. The future is faster, higher, further (yeah the doctrine from the 50's). The future is not slow and low and 10 coats of RAM and some ceramics/metals coatings on nozzels.


Here is the problem with your argument... Faster, higher, further is ALREADY defeated. Stealth isn't defeated yet.
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sferrin
PostPosted: Apr 11, 2007 - 02:14 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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[quote="fox100"]
asiatrails wrote:
Maybe we should relish in the fact that DoD has opted to throw 350 billion dollars out the window on a subsonic 2 bomb carrying airplane with some LO and better sensor integration than the F-117 (a subsonic 2 bomb carrying airplane from 30 years ago).


What aircraft is that?
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fox100
PostPosted: Apr 11, 2007 - 01:27 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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dwightlooi wrote:
fox100 wrote:

Everything is defeatable. Stealth (EM/IR) are defeatable. Since day one of wood and fabric airplanes, tactics have been hit and run. There is no such thing as an invisble plane. Wonder Woman's jet isn't real. Anything sighted can be shot to put it simply. The future is faster, higher, further (yeah the doctrine from the 50's). The future is not slow and low and 10 coats of RAM and some ceramics/metals coatings on nozzels.


Here is the problem with your argument... Faster, higher, further is ALREADY defeated. Stealth isn't defeated yet.


Who says stealth aint defeated? Pop Mech? An digested and heavily mod'd briefing? If you want to be stealthy and effective as a bomber then go you go low and fast with a low RCS/IR platform. Keep fighters out of the scene with your own cap drivers and thats as good as it gets.

If you know what to look for, its there to see expecially if your bumbing around downtown Tehren at 2,000 feet and mach 1+/-.

Look, EVERYTHING, is defeatable. So why get out of bed in the morning? For ever thesis there is an antithesis. So why bother?

You can't defeat every wavelength bouncing off your airframe (actually you can but its expensive and maye not proper for this forum and it doesnt hinder supercruise) and computers are getting quite nifty at picking out targets from random noise. I haven't looked into the cell phone styles of picking up low rcs airplanes, but there's another way of developing an air defence grid with burried fiber optic cables for jam proof information distribution. Everything is defeatible... In nature everything eats everything else (for the most part) and warfare aint no different.

Everything you can think of is defeatable. We've seen stealth in what? Irag? Ooooh.... look out. Better spend 300 billion dollars because of success in Iraq or against the Migs that our guys get to fly in Europe. To my knowledge there are more ways to defeat stealth than I can remember this early. Have they been fielded? Hm? Now, then there is going to be so much ecm soup in the air rcs considerations for any airplane are going to be greatly reduced.... When everyones equally good at not seeing the other guy electronically what do you want? An underpperformer or an over achiever? The answer should be obvious.
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dwightlooi
PostPosted: Apr 11, 2007 - 07:26 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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fox100 wrote:


Here is the problem with your argument... Faster, higher, further is ALREADY defeated. Stealth isn't defeated yet.

Who says stealth aint defeated? Pop Mech? An digested and heavily mod'd briefing? If you want to be stealthy and effective as a bomber then go you go low and fast with a low RCS/IR platform. Keep fighters out of the scene with your own cap drivers and thats as good as it gets.

If you know what to look for, its there to see expecially if your bumbing around downtown Tehren at 2,000 feet and mach 1+/-.

Look, EVERYTHING, is defeatable. So why get out of bed in the morning? For ever thesis there is an antithesis. So why bother?

You can't defeat every wavelength bouncing off your airframe (actually you can but its expensive and maye not proper for this forum and it doesnt hinder supercruise) and computers are getting quite nifty at picking out targets from random noise. I haven't looked into the cell phone styles of picking up low rcs airplanes, but there's another way of developing an air defence grid with burried fiber optic cables for jam proof information distribution. Everything is defeatible... In nature everything eats everything else (for the most part) and warfare aint no different.

Everything you can think of is defeatable. We've seen stealth in what? Irag? Ooooh.... look out. Better spend 300 billion dollars because of success in Iraq or against the Migs that our guys get to fly in Europe. To my knowledge there are more ways to defeat stealth than I can remember this early. Have they been fielded? Hm? Now, then there is going to be so much ecm soup in the air rcs considerations for any airplane are going to be greatly reduced.... When everyones equally good at not seeing the other guy electronically what do you want? An underpperformer or an over achiever? The answer should be obvious.


Nobody is saying that stealth is undetectable. Even today, civilian airport radars can pick up a B-2. But not very far away. The idea is not being invisible, the idea is to make your enemy short sighted. And currently, there is no effective means of removing the short sightedness which stealth imposes on a fighter, AWACs or any other component of an air defence network.

Stealth makes an aircraft MUCH LESS vulnerable than Mach 3 cruise and a flight altitude of 70,000 ft. Without stealth, flying at Mach 3 and 70,000 ft makes you an turkey waiting to be shot out of the sky. And this kind of performance based defense didn't just get defeated or is about to get defeated. It was defeated 25 years ago.

The argument for the F-35 is very simple. Giving up supercruise and getting 3 times as many VLO airframes is a very good deal. Why? Because while supercruise is a nice and useful compliment to Stealth in the F-22, it is not the most important thing about that aircraft. Keeping stealth and doing away with the not so important attributes, but getting 3 times as many aircrafts gives you much better overall capability and air power.

Let's put it this way. Stealth has become the MOST IMPORTANT characteristic an aircraft can have that enhances survivability and combat effectiveness. Air combat has become very much like submarine warfare. Imagine a building a submarine which is not quiet, but which goes 50 knots and dives to 3000 ft. You know what its called? Its called an Alfa and its a turkey waiting to go in the oven. Give me a 20 knots, 900 ft but whisper quiet boat any day.
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asiatrails
PostPosted: Apr 12, 2007 - 05:51 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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[quote="sferrin"]
fox100 wrote:
asiatrails wrote:
Maybe we should relish in the fact that DoD has opted to throw 350 billion dollars out the window on a subsonic 2 bomb carrying airplane with some LO and better sensor integration than the F-117 (a subsonic 2 bomb carrying airplane from 30 years ago).


What aircraft is that?


Fox100 wrote that, not me. I just quoted him and his flexible facts.
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toan
PostPosted: Apr 12, 2007 - 03:18 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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http://www.defense-aerospace.com/cgi-bi ... le=feature

Updated US Military Aircraft Prices (Dec. 2006): JSF Leads Cost Inflation

(Source: defense-aerospace.com; published Apr. 11, 2006)

The cost of US combat aircraft has grown at a substantial rate during the past six months, according to the Pentagon’s latest Selected Acquisition Report, released on April 9 and covering the six months to Dec. 31, 2006.

The largest increase was posted by the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program, whose total cost jumped by $23.3 billion (or +8.5 percent) in six months, equivalent to an annualized growth rate of 17%. This is much higher than any previous forecast for the program, and bodes ill for the program’s future affordability.

According to the Pentagon, the increase in JSF costs (from $276.4 billion to $299.8 billion) is “due primarily to a decrease in the annual procurement quantities and a stretch-out of the production buy schedule from fiscal year 2027 to fiscal year 2034.”

Other factors are “commodity market price increases (+$5,472.8 million), revised assumptions based on contractor LRIP I proposals and methodology (+$8,307.1 million), and support increase due to aircraft configuration update, revised procurement profile, and methodology changes (+$6,423.2 million),” the Pentagon said. These increases were partially offset by lower estimates of JSF prime and subcontractor labor rates (-$3,576.3 million) and for subcontractor costs (-$5,201.4 million).

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Purplehaze
PostPosted: Apr 12, 2007 - 07:04 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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(1) Supercruise is WAY LESS important than stealth. So choosing marginal supercruise (plus perhaps a small dose of extra agility) over stealth is basically building a Rafale -- something that is not survivable in the coming decades. Choosing Mach 2 supercruise over stealth is building the Concorde. Lets put it this way, speed has been a defeated mode of defense. The SR-71 is no longer survivable at Mach 3.2+ cruise which is why it is retired. Basically, if the SAM batteries can find you they can shoot you down regardless of how high you fly or how fast you can go.



Not so sure this is accurate. I don't think there are too many SAM's out there that can exceed 60k ft.
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dwightlooi
PostPosted: Apr 12, 2007 - 09:23 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Purplehaze wrote:
Quote:

(1) Supercruise is WAY LESS important than stealth. So choosing marginal supercruise (plus perhaps a small dose of extra agility) over stealth is basically building a Rafale -- something that is not survivable in the coming decades. Choosing Mach 2 supercruise over stealth is building the Concorde. Lets put it this way, speed has been a defeated mode of defense. The SR-71 is no longer survivable at Mach 3.2+ cruise which is why it is retired. Basically, if the SAM batteries can find you they can shoot you down regardless of how high you fly or how fast you can go.



Not so sure this is accurate. I don't think there are too many SAM's out there that can exceed 60k ft.


Those that matter can go past 100k ft (SA-10, SA-12, etc). Those that do not are typically point defense systems which are low order threats even to a typical 4th generation non-supercruising aircraft flying at 45,000 ft anyway. But that is not the point.

The point is that everything is rendered relatively ineffective by stealth because they cannot effectively shoot at what they cannot effectively detect or track at significant ranges. If you imagine each fighter, ship and SAM battery as an asset protecting a sphere on the battle field, Stealth allows you to reduce each and every sphere to about 1/8th their typical radius. Supercruise on the other hand only reduces each to perhaps 8/10ths of their typical radius. Remember, non-supercruising aircrafts are typically of the Mach 2 class too. The difference is that they tend not to stay at that speed for fuel economy reasons. They WILL however light their burners and get pretty fast when they detect a missile launch directed at them. Not only that, but in the absence of stealth the enemy will be able to track your aircrafts pretty well with AWACs and surface assets regardless of whether they can shoot and hit you at that particular instance. Because they can do so you have very little or no element of surprise and they can vector all kinds of bogeys your way to tangle with you. With stealth, they don't even know where you are or what hit them. That is a massive difference effective engagement range of missile systems aside.

The idea of focusing on speed and altitude as the primary defensive attributes was pursued in the 60s and 70s. By the time the 80s come around, neither Mach 3 flight nor 80,000 ft altitudes is seen as sufficient defense against new SAMs being fielded or developed. And, the kinematics gap continued to widen as aircrafts performance proved a lot more difficult to raise than missile performance. By the time the 80s is in full swing the advances in FBW technology, combined with the relatively poor performance of SARH missiles like the Sparrow gave rise to design trend where agility was emphasized. But this too got sidelined because with the advent of 50~60G missiles with HOBS seekers or even LOAL 360 degree shooting envelopes. tight turns no longer helps and in fact hurts because they bleed kinetic energy. This is why the stealth alternative was sort and aircrafts like the F-117 and B-2 were developed, while successors to the likes of the SR-71 and XB-70 never happened. Today, we are able to give stealth to aircrafts with fighter performance. Better than F-16 performance in case of the F-35 and better than everything performance in the case of the F-22. But in both cases Stealth is the key to the platforms merit, while performance is simply an auxiliary compliment.
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nomad
PostPosted: Apr 12, 2007 - 10:09 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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So why US purchased the raptor and not the black widow. If stealth was the issue then Northrop should have won.
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dwightlooi
PostPosted: Apr 15, 2007 - 08:23 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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nomad wrote:
So why US purchased the raptor and not the black widow. If stealth was the issue then Northrop should have won.


The exact reasons for the selection were never made public.

Plausible explanations vary. There is the saying that YF-22 team presented a program with less developmental risks and presented more robust stealth techniques which were more maintainable in the field (no taping and no tiling for instance; both of which were used on the YF-23 but not on the YF-22) Because the B-2 was a maintenance hog, the USAF may have wanted to avoid that. There is also the saying that the YF-22 team was selected because the USAF has a higher confidence level with regard to industrial performance, particularly in cost control and timeliness. After the A-12 and other expensive still borns the USAF may have went with what they perceived as the safer industrial bet.

What we know is that BOTH platforms exceeded the maneuverability requirements of the USAF. The YF-23 was actually faster (by ~ Mach 0.05) during the fly offs. According to people who worked on the YF-23 program, the YF-23 also supposedly had better RCS numbers. There is no mention whatsoever on the part of the USAF, or any of the participating companies, that the YF-22 was selected because it was more agile -- this is completely a popular conjecture. Lastly, we also know that the YF-23 team was fully debriefed on the selection reasons, they were satisfied and decided not to file a protest.
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huggy
PostPosted: Apr 16, 2007 - 04:29 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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So someone's trying to tell me that the real reason the SR-71 was retired was because SAM's can now bring it down??!!
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dwightlooi
PostPosted: Apr 16, 2007 - 04:48 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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huggy wrote:
So someone's trying to tell me that the real reason the SR-71 was retired was because SAM's can now bring it down??!!


Not just SAMs but also interceptor fired missiles. Basically, Mach 3 flight at 20,000+ meters no longer granted access to the Soviet Union's airspace or that of present day Russia. For surveillance on undefended or poorly defended areas, the U2 offered better loiter persistence and mission flexibility. So the U2 stuck around until now when it is being replaced by the Global Hawk UAV.

The simple fact is that by the 1980s and especially the 90s, Mach 3.5 and 24,000m is no longer enough to survive or penetrate against sophisticate integrated air defence environments. This is why the planes like the XB-70 was not built whereas the B-2 was built. The U2 was all about altitude-- by the 50s thats wasn't enough. the SR-71 was about speed and altitude. By the 80s this also wasn't enough.

By the late 80s SAMs can hit Mach 6~8 ballistic missiles 25km up over 80,000 feet up. And we are talking PAC-2 or S-300PMUs. Not the latest missile systems.
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Raptor_One
PostPosted: Apr 16, 2007 - 07:47 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Unless I'm not recalling the details from Ben Rich's Skunkworks correctly, the SR-71 was never actually used to overfly or "penetrate" Soviet air defense systems. SR-71s would either take photos and/or other sensor recordings/scans from its onboard recon sesnors while flying along a portion of the Soviet Union's coastline. In fact, one of its major roles was to collect sensor data on the various radars that would lock on to it as it approached the coastline. Again, if I remember right, the SR-71 would begin a turn ahead of time so that it never actually passed over Russian territory. Not only that, but when its mission was to collect data on SAM and even airborne interceptor radar, it WANTED to get as much of a hostile reaction as possible. It needed the actual missiles to be fired at times so it could record as much as possible about the launch events using its electronic survielance gear. This would include all the various frequencies used by the radars themselves as well as missile uplink guidance frequencies. Depending on the missile system, you can have various frequency modes for tracking a target and guiding a missile on it. In order for ECM gear to be programmed to defeat new systems, aircraft like the SR-71 had to run the gauntlet at times so slower aircraft could simply jam these radars in the future to keep from getting shot down during an engagement, bombing run, etc.

The SR-71 could probably still outrun most if not all SAM missile systems today as long as it didn't approach them foolishly, but in a planned, methodical, probing fahsion. I think you may be giving missiles in and of themselves a little too much credit. There are some deadly systems out there, but they're only deadly if fired at targets within a no-escape zone. Don't be fooled by the max range and altitude quoted for SAMs or AAMs. For these same systems to shoot down an SR-71, the SR-71 would have to make itself a target (i.e. no change in course, altitude, speed, etc.). Trust me, these SAMs are going to have serious solution issues on a Mach 3.3 aircraft at angels 80. Assming the SAM system's radar can lock it up early enough to predict where the target will be in X seceonds (assuming it maintains course, altitude, and speed) such that the actual missile can physically fly a lead pursuit course to that point in or under X seconds, it's still not going to be a very high probability shot. Now if the SR-71 gradually changes speed, heading, and altitude after the missile is fired, it will probably end up outside the missile's kinematic range. When you're flying so high and fast, even gradual course, altitude, and airspeed changes turn into huge initial prediction errors for the missile guidance system. The radar can see the changes in the target flight profile and send course updates to the missile, but if the missile was fired under a low percentage situation to begin with, no amount of course changes in the world will help it find the SR-71.

Another thing to keep in mind when it comes to missiles is that their average speed over the course of their flight when intercepting a very fast, high-flying target is NOT Mach 6-8. In fact, it's probably closer to the speed the SR-71 can maintain for significant periods of time. The fact of the matter is that these missiles still need to be going quite fast as they're nearing the SR-71's position or they won't be able to pull enough G forces to keep up lead pursuit. Once a missile no longer has significant lead pursuit on an SR-71, the game is all but over. And that's what happened time after time after time. Missiles were shot with maybe a PK of 5-10%, the SR-71 reacted by flying a little higher, faster, and onto a slightly different heading, and the same missiles fired with a 5-10% PK quickly attain 0% PK under the new flight condtitions of the SR-71. Same deal with interceptors. They couldn't scramble fast enough to get into a position where their missiles could be fired under optimum conditions. Ohhh... and the SR-71 probably had the ability jam many of the radars that locked onto it after encountering them (it probably collected the necessary data in a previous mission), so only systems not yet encountered (or fully profiled) would pose any significant threat.
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dwightlooi
PostPosted: Apr 16, 2007 - 08:25 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Raptor_One wrote:
Unless I'm not recalling the details from Ben Rich's Skunkworks correctly, the SR-71 was never actually used to overfly or "penetrate" Soviet air defense systems. SR-71s would either take photos and/or other sensor recordings/scans from its onboard recon sesnors while flying along a portion of the Soviet Union's coastline. In fact, one of its major roles was to collect sensor data on the various radars that would lock on to it as it approached the coastline. Again, if I remember right, the SR-71 would begin a turn ahead of time so that it never actually passed over Russian territory. Not only that, but when its mission was to collect data on SAM and even airborne interceptor radar, it WANTED to get as much of a hostile reaction as possible. It needed the actual missiles to be fired at times so it could record as much as possible about the launch events using its electronic survielance gear. This would include all the various frequencies used by the radars themselves as well as missile uplink guidance frequencies. Depending on the missile system, you can have various frequency modes for tracking a target and guiding a missile on it. In order for ECM gear to be programmed to defeat new systems, aircraft like the SR-71 had to run the gauntlet at times so slower aircraft could simply jam these radars in the future to keep from getting shot down during an engagement, bombing run, etc.

The SR-71 could probably still outrun most if not all SAM missile systems today as long as it didn't approach them foolishly, but in a planned, methodical, probing fahsion. I think you may be giving missiles in and of themselves a little too much credit. There are some deadly systems out there, but they're only deadly if fired at targets within a no-escape zone. Don't be fooled by the max range and altitude quoted for SAMs or AAMs. For these same systems to shoot down an SR-71, the SR-71 would have to make itself a target (i.e. no change in course, altitude, speed, etc.). Trust me, these SAMs are going to have serious solution issues on a Mach 3.3 aircraft at angels 80. Assming the SAM system's radar can lock it up early enough to predict where the target will be in X seceonds (assuming it maintains course, altitude, and speed) such that the actual missile can physically fly a lead pursuit course to that point in or under X seconds, it's still not going to be a very high probability shot. Now if the SR-71 gradually changes speed, heading, and altitude after the missile is fired, it will probably end up outside the missile's kinematic range. When you're flying so high and fast, even gradual course, altitude, and airspeed changes turn into huge initial prediction errors for the missile guidance system. The radar can see the changes in the target flight profile and send course updates to the missile, but if the missile was fired under a low percentage situation to begin with, no amount of course changes in the world will help it find the SR-71.

Another thing to keep in mind when it comes to missiles is that their average speed over the course of their flight when intercepting a very fast, high-flying target is NOT Mach 6-8. In fact, it's probably closer to the speed the SR-71 can maintain for significant periods of time. The fact of the matter is that these missiles still need to be going quite fast as they're nearing the SR-71's position or they won't be able to pull enough G forces to keep up lead pursuit. Once a missile no longer has significant lead pursuit on an SR-71, the game is all but over. And that's what happened time after time after time. Missiles were shot with maybe a PK of 5-10%, the SR-71 reacted by flying a little higher, faster, and onto a slightly different heading, and the same missiles fired with a 5-10% PK quickly attain 0% PK under the new flight condtitions of the SR-71. Same deal with interceptors. They couldn't scramble fast enough to get into a position where their missiles could be fired under optimum conditions. Ohhh... and the SR-71 probably had the ability jam many of the radars that locked onto it after encountering them (it probably collected the necessary data in a previous mission), so only systems not yet encountered (or fully profiled) would pose any significant threat.


Well, thats all true. But the fact is that the SR-71 is a strategic recon bird. Mach 3 and high air breathing altitudes is no longer a feasible strategy for overflying Moscow and dropping ordnance on the Kremlin for instance, or for hitting well defended military targets of 1st rate powers. This is why the B-2 is given the mission and not an aircraft like the XB-70.

Speed and altitude is no longer enough. Stealth is for the moment enough. Stealth plus Mach 1.7 cruise and 60K+ ft altitude is fantastic which is what the F-22 gets you. Stealth plus similar speed with A/B with near Mach 1 cruise (perhaps marginal supercruise in the M1.1~1.3 range) and 50+K fit altitude is almost as good which is what the F-35 gets you. As a bonus you also get better range and a heavier internal payload for 1/3 the price with the F-35.
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nomad
PostPosted: Apr 16, 2007 - 09:19 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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dwightlooi wrote:
nomad wrote:
So why US purchased the raptor and not the black widow. If stealth was the issue then Northrop should have won.


The exact reasons for the selection were never made public.

Plausible explanations vary. There is the saying that YF-22 team presented a program with less developmental risks and presented more robust stealth techniques which were more maintainable in the field (no taping and no tiling for instance; both of which were used on the YF-23 but not on the YF-22) Because the B-2 was a maintenance hog, the USAF may have wanted to avoid that. There is also the saying that the YF-22 team was selected because the USAF has a higher confidence level with regard to industrial performance, particularly in cost control and timeliness. After the A-12 and other expensive still borns the USAF may have went with what they perceived as the safer industrial bet.

What we know is that BOTH platforms exceeded the maneuverability requirements of the USAF. The YF-23 was actually faster (by ~ Mach 0.05) during the fly offs. According to people who worked on the YF-23 program, the YF-23 also supposedly had better RCS numbers. There is no mention whatsoever on the part of the USAF, or any of the participating companies, that the YF-22 was selected because it was more agile -- this is completely a popular conjecture. Lastly, we also know that the YF-23 team was fully debriefed on the selection reasons, they were satisfied and decided not to file a protest.

thanks for the reply. It explains all.
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