Forum: F-35 Lightning II

Bad news for the F-35 - US DoD budget hits JSF



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firefox99
PostPosted: Feb 20, 2007 - 12:01 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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idesof wrote:
Scrappy wrote:
You guys can really get worked up over one phrase that was probably misquoted, miswritten, misread, or all of the above. In any case it doesn't jive with this.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlein ... &type=qcna

Quote:
The U.S. Air Force said it planned to buy 48 F-35s a year by the end of fiscal 2013.

The air force eventually would like to buy at least 85 and ideally as many as 110 F-35s a year, Maj. Gen. Frank Faykes, the budget director, told reporters.


I agree: people are being misquoted and/or misunderstood. Once again: it makes no logical sense whatsoever to contemplate that the F-35 will be in production for 35 years, and that F-16s will be around in USAF inventory that much longer. Think about it, people.


Why not? Look at the nations still flying F-4's, F-111's, A-4's, F-5's (this and that 'Nam era Mig).... F-16's won't be around as long as those other airframes? Christ, they're welding on new structural materials onto the A-10's to keep 'em from falling apart in the air.

Consider: ATB, planned buy of 144 airframes. Actual, 22. ATF planned buy of 750 airframes. Actual, around 183. You really think that the USA is going to get 2000 F-35's? Uh uh. I'd expect to see no more than 1200 spread around the services over some 20 years. In another 10 years (assuming the Mayan calender is wrong) you'll start to hear about a replacement all in one airframe for both the F-22 and F-35, and hell, why not the F-18 too.... Aint going to need to keep the 35 in the production loop as long as planned.

Every crop of new guys thinks they're right and the other guy's an idot. 'This program will be different... We need ### of the XYZ's, Washington isn't as dumb as everyone thinks to bring out the ginsu chopping knives, ect ect....'
Learn from history.

Our illustrious leaders have seen fit to buy into the pin prick strike military force neverminding an ever destabilizing world scene and an ever increasing spread of high tech goodies in the wrong hands. The only thing we're going to have going for us if the going gets tough is the nuke option.

For the first time in history its possible to actually win wars overwhelmingly (so long as you're willing to take out some civillians) with air power. What do our leaders do: shrink that capability to the point that it's a stretch on our boys to throw some bombs at a couple of different low tech nations not too terribly far away from another.

What do we need? Long range strike aircraft. What do we get? A 'mass' quantity small 2 bomb carrying truck and a scant 20+ B-2 force and an end to the B-1 production line. God love them, but the Buff's are useless in a modern battlefield. You think you're going to fly F-35's from the coast of Israel to Iran? Or Gaum to the Korean peninsula? Are you going to fly 'em from the UK ala the Libya affair into Iran? You're going to put up a lot of assets to get 2 bomb carrying planes to the battle. Hang more than 2 on her and she's a lead brick gas hog. Basing rights are going the way of smokers rights in NY city... And ain't no one coming out and doing a thing about it.
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elp
PostPosted: Feb 20, 2007 - 01:58 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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2008 will be coming along. Politicos want to get elected. They need cash. LM and others are only too happy to provide. Which ever politico is more JSF friendly will get the job. Political graft works.

A B-52 won't be too useless with this:

http://www.f-16.net/modules.php?op=modl ... pic&t=7534

And all the other weapons it offers. Including the stelath nuke cruise missile. Once large SAMs and fighter aircraft are killed off, B-52 can do what ever it wants.

B-52 also has the highest MC rate of the 3 bombers. By a good margin. It's paid for... and deploys with the least amount of hassle compared to the other two. ( smaller cheaper logistical footprint )

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Viperalltheway
PostPosted: Feb 20, 2007 - 09:38 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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What I wonder is whether the F-35 won't become increasingly outdated by UCAVs. F-22s can already control UCAVs ( http://www.f22-raptor.com/media/documen ... 010807.pdf (see page 3) ), which means that any mission that requires human intervention can be done by a UCAV as long as there's an F-22 around with a pilot in it.

Not taking into account that UCAVs are more stealthy, much cheaper, have longer range and spare human lives. A combination of F-22s/UCAVs may become more and more attractive vs the F-35 for the USAF - and for the navy also which could do the same with F-18Es.

One could argue that the same kind of combination could be feasable with F-35s, but wouldn't that reduce the number of F-35s needed which would in turn render the entire program questionable anyways?
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dwightlooi
PostPosted: Feb 21, 2007 - 08:59 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Viperalltheway wrote:
What I wonder is whether the F-35 won't become increasingly outdated by UCAVs. F-22s can already control UCAVs ( http://www.f22-raptor.com/media/documen ... 010807.pdf (see page 3) ), which means that any mission that requires human intervention can be done by a UCAV as long as there's an F-22 around with a pilot in it.

Not taking into account that UCAVs are more stealthy, much cheaper, have longer range and spare human lives. A combination of F-22s/UCAVs may become more and more attractive vs the F-35 for the USAF - and for the navy also which could do the same with F-18Es.

One could argue that the same kind of combination could be feasable with F-35s, but wouldn't that reduce the number of F-35s needed which would in turn render the entire program questionable anyways?


IMHO, if it comes down to a choice between the F-35 only or the F-22 only, the F-35 is the better aircraft. The F-35 can perform every mission that the F-22 can perform. Although its superiority in the A2A role is not as great as that offered by the F-22, it is nonetheless vastly superior to anything else out there or anticipated for the near future. Meanwhile, the F-35 also has superior range, lower operating costs, larger stealth payload and superior sensor package compared to the F-22. Given that R&D costs are pretty much sunked for both platform at this point, the affordability quotient really comes down to manufacturing costs and the F-35 is much cheaper to produce meaning you can produce roughly three F-35s for the money it takes to make one F-22. Hence you can have more airframes,

In short, the F-35 is a more versatile and more capable aircraft overall than the F-22. And if one has to choose between the two, the F-35 simply gives you more combat capability across a wider range of mission spectrum than the F-22.
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LowObservable
PostPosted: Feb 21, 2007 - 04:35 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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<<Although its superiority in the A2A role is not as great as that offered by the F-22, it is nonetheless vastly superior to anything else out there or anticipated for the near future.>>
As long as LO rules, jamming + forward sig reduction doesn't fuddle tracking and as long as JSF's first shot takes the enemy out.
<<Given that R&D costs are pretty much sunked for both platform at this point>>
We are HALF WAY at best through JSF SDD.
<< the affordability quotient really comes down to manufacturing costs and the F-35 is much cheaper to produce meaning you can produce roughly three F-35s for the money it takes to make one F-22. >>
If you build 3000 of one and 183 of the other that comparison holds.
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dwightlooi
PostPosted: Feb 21, 2007 - 08:33 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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LowObservable wrote:
<<Although its superiority in the A2A role is not as great as that offered by the F-22, it is nonetheless vastly superior to anything else out there or anticipated for the near future.>>
As long as LO rules, jamming + forward sig reduction doesn't fuddle tracking and as long as JSF's first shot takes the enemy out.


This is true of the F-22 as well. If it comes down to a WVR fight, with the enemy already aware of the F-22's presence and within tracking range of it, the F-22 is just as likely to get dead as the F-35 or the F-16 or the Typhoon or whatever. WVR fights today is where everybody has a tendency to get dead regardless of how agile or how advanced the platform is. This really has nothing to do with stealth. It is the advent of extremely agile, extremely acccurate and very reliable WVR AAMs with extreme off bore sight or even 360 degree launch envelopes, that made dogfights a total crap shoot even for the most advanced and maneuverable jet. The reason is simple. You cannot out turn or dodge these 50~65+ G missiles with a 9 or 12G aircraft, and going higher Gs is not possible for the human pilot. You also cannot count on agility to keep the enemy off your tail because he does not have to even try to get on your tail to kill you. And, lastly the missiles are accurate and reliable enough that betting on it failing is rather crappy odds.

The bottom line is that for all their differences, the F-35 -- like the F-22 -- has the key ingredients for A2A combat success in the 21st century. It is able to out detect the opponent and stay undetectable to SAM sites, AWACs, fighters and everything else at any reasonable ranges. Supercruise is nice, but it is a fuel economy feature that is not really essential. In terms of altitude performance and maneuverability, again the F-35 is more than good enough.

LowObservable wrote:
<<Given that R&D costs are pretty much sunked for both platform at this point>>
We are HALF WAY at best through JSF SDD.
<< the affordability quotient really comes down to manufacturing costs and the F-35 is much cheaper to produce meaning you can produce roughly three F-35s for the money it takes to make one F-22. >>


Actually, the last time I checked we have already spent about $28 billion of the $40 billion development budget. With cancellation fees and the wind down process we can expect about 80% of the R&D costs sunken on the F-35 even if we cancel today. This, plus the fact that if the F-22 has to take on the same roles as the F-35 effectively, additional funds will have to be allocated to evolve the F-22 to add the capabilities that the F-35 has and it doesn't -- features like EOTS/DAS, HMD, all-specturm data fusion and presentation, etc.

LowObservable wrote:
If you build 3000 of one and 183 of the other that comparison holds.


No, not really. based on the "best case" production cost estimate for the F-22 of $83 million. You are looking at roughly a 1:3 ratio. In otherwords, you can get 550 F-35s or 183 Raptors for the same money. Or, you can get 1700 F-35s (est USAF buy) or 567 Raptors. I think it is safe to say that in either case, the F-35 only formation will have much more war fighting capability than the Raptor only formation.
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elp
PostPosted: Feb 21, 2007 - 09:43 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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[quote="dwightlooi"]
LowObservable wrote:
<

The bottom line is that for all their differences, the F-35 -- like the F-22 -- has the key ingredients for A2A combat success in the 21st century. It is able to out detect the opponent and stay undetectable to SAM sites, AWACs, fighters and everything else at any reasonable ranges. Supercruise is nice, but it is a fuel economy feature that is not really essential. In terms of altitude performance and maneuverability, again the F-35 is more than good enough.

.


When I see lower band sensors on some official public consumption briefing being sold as being low risk threats to JSF, I'll believe it. It has the ability to seriously hamper the weaponeering radars of big SUs... Typhoon... Some AAA and Some SAMs ( X and K band stuff ). This is a jet that is cost effective in a lot of areas, but not up to the cost_is_no object stealth of F-22. It has less of a chance to get detected because of various L.O. built in it's design but I would be real curious how long it can keep from being detected by big search radars... of course those radars them self are at a disadvantage because they are.... big... Wink but JSF is not:

*All aspect stealth ( F-22 is )
*Wide band stealth ( F-22 is )
*A uber super cruise jet until tests show otherwise.

I am confident the JSF will do very well for a lot of the reasons you mention. Although I would not over sell it and IMHO it will need a good stand off strike weapon ( which should be no problem ) to take out annoying big search radars. I also do not believe (again IMHO) it will able to avoid too much detection from low band emissions from future non-U.S. AWACs coming down the pike. Again here getting a wiff of JSF is not the same as being able to kill it. Especially when your weapons radars are mostly in the narrow band JSF's L.O. was designed to be it's best at. Again this is all guess work on my part. And you won't see anyone raising their hand that really knows for obvious reasons. I would still go with the caution of.... don't oversell the stealth in JSF. It is a damn sight better than legacy where legacy is going to have it's hands full avoiding the above weaponeering threats. The goal is to accomplish the strike mission and I think JSF along with a growing variety of weapons can do that.

I wouldn't Poo Poo the F-22s ability to go through any of todays IADS (integrated air defense systems). It will do this with far less risk than JSF. Especially when having to face down the new gen super SAMs.
I would also look at growth room here. Yes F-22 was fielded without some systems:IRST/EOT and some extra arrays. However there is real growth room inside F-22. Space for someone to add IRST/EOT later if they want and space to add the two cheek arrays. Hello... mini network centric Rivet Joint or whatever else you want to do with those arrays.
JSF, real internal growth room is limited. And I don't count going from a Block II to a Block III or a mod to put more A2A internal in it. Here with JSF the radome is smaller meaning that is about all the array you are going to work with for the future. I don't see how the 81 AESA is going to have the reach of F-22. Again though... I am probably more with you than contrary to you. The JSF program seems to be extremely well run and for the money, the customer should get a more survivable jet against threats and this sure beats the heck out of legacy.
F-22 is dog expensive. However if we push the production number up to 500 and decide to not go with JSF at all and have block 6x, 7x, 8x, 9x of F-16 ... where big IADS threats are dead to a large point when you bring in the common legacy bomb truck... I think there is a valid case for cost savings vs. airpower there too. Ain't going to happen though. Just like a super advanced version of the single seat F-15 was never explored ( can't have that it would get in the way of F-22 pork) ...
Proponents of JSF do no good by poo pooing F-22 capability. F-22 has a few things going for it. The ones we have now even in their current state would leave a trail of death around them and make it easy for our legacys to do what ever they pleased. While maybe not important for an export user... a few F-22s being able to slaughter a great deal means we can keep the lid on more hot spots around the globe. That is real airpower. As long as we are on this moronic Team America: WORLD POLICE kick, F-22 is the way to go in larger numbers. Even with JSF humming along, we need 500 F-22s for USAF and a lesser number of JSF for USAF with 1/3rd of USAF JSF being STOVL. Most of our existing contingency plans like 1421 or what ever that dumb fantasy is called can't be done today, unless we want to start bringing the nukes out early on to hammer one contingency while we work 3 others. Proof that the peace dividend draw down was feeble minded fantasy.
Anyway we are going with JSF and it will do well. Buick of Stealth fraggers should look to Dirty Harry though in the coming 30 years if surface to air threats or RuTech A2A missles and their Chinese knock-offs start really going hot: "A man's got to know his limitations".

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dwightlooi
PostPosted: Feb 22, 2007 - 12:47 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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<i>*All aspect stealth ( F-22 is )
*Wide band stealth ( F-22 is )
*A uber super cruise jet until tests show otherwise. </i>

I haven't seen ANY official sources which states or even hinted that the F-35's stealth treatment is any narrower band than the F-22s. The only statements to that regard had been made by biased F-35 opponents and "analysts" who know NOTHING of the highly secretive material surrounding the F-35's stealth implementation. Put bluntly, individuals who do not know what they are talking about and are highly biased and agendalized to begin with. The only official statement regarding F-35 observability are very vague and they say that basically it has a forward sector RCS roughly comparable to a metallic "golf ball" vs that of the F-22 which was described as being comparable to a metallic "insect". They also say that the F-35's stealth treatment is much easier to maintain and constitutes a much smaller hassle when performing repairs and routine maintenance on the jet. One of the things eliminated was the use of LO putty to seal gaps of every removable panel -- instead the F-35's panels have a raised LO edge which requires no puttying. I otherwords, if you want to believe the statements regarding "narrowband stealth" and build your reasonings around them, thats fine. But, there is no evidence to this regard.

And, I'll tell you why these speculations makes little sense. If the F-35 is primarily a "strike" aircraft -- as many of the same "analysts" claim -- instead of a all round superior multi-role platform, then the ability to penetrate enemy SAM defences and kill enemy ground targets has to be a top priority. If that is the case, then the ability to penetrate enemy air defence networks is more important than the ability to hamper enemy fighter radars because the overwhelming majority of the obstacles it will face in such missions will be AWACs (if any), SAM radars and long range ground based surveillance radars. In other words, it'll face the same basic threat as the B-2. Remain undetected and the fighters wouldn't even know that you are there and wouldn't even be vectored to intercept you! If this is the case, then X-band stealth does not make ANY sense. The reason is that most long range search radars are L-band. SAM radars are frequently C-band or S-band. In fact, you rarely see ANYTHING on SAM batteries or AWACs or AAW ships that are X-band at all! It is only very recently that X-band was adopted by a handful of ship board multi-function ESA radars because it simply takes too much energy to obtain the same range in X-band. The lower frequencies, while less precise is good enough unless you need very high discrimination resolution and they are much more efficient. What I am trying to say is that if the F-35 has to be "narrow band" for whatever reason, it'll make more sense to make it L thru S-band biased rather than X thru Ka band biased.
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elp
PostPosted: Feb 22, 2007 - 02:38 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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dwightlooi wrote:
<i>*All aspect stealth ( F-22 is )
*Wide band stealth ( F-22 is )
*A uber super cruise jet until tests show otherwise. </i>

I haven't seen ANY official sources which states or even hinted that the F-35's stealth treatment is any narrower band than the F-22s. The only statements to that regard had been made by biased F-35 opponents and "analysts" who know NOTHING of the highly secretive material surrounding the F-35's stealth implementation. Put bluntly, individuals who do not know what they are talking about and are highly biased and agendalized to begin with. The only official statement regarding F-35 observability are very vague and they say that basically it has a forward sector RCS roughly comparable to a metallic "golf ball" vs that of the F-22 which was described as being comparable to a metallic "insect". They also say that the F-35's stealth treatment is much easier to maintain and constitutes a much smaller hassle when performing repairs and routine maintenance on the jet. One of the things eliminated was the use of LO putty to seal gaps of every removable panel -- instead the F-35's panels have a raised LO edge which requires no puttying. I otherwords, if you want to believe the statements regarding "narrowband stealth" and build your reasonings around them, thats fine. But, there is no evidence to this regard.

And, I'll tell you why these speculations makes little sense. If the F-35 is primarily a "strike" aircraft -- as many of the same "analysts" claim -- instead of a all round superior multi-role platform, then the ability to penetrate enemy SAM defences and kill enemy ground targets has to be a top priority. If that is the case, then the ability to penetrate enemy air defence networks is more important than the ability to hamper enemy fighter radars because the overwhelming majority of the obstacles it will face in such missions will be AWACs (if any), SAM radars and long range ground based surveillance radars. In other words, it'll face the same basic threat as the B-2. Remain undetected and the fighters wouldn't even know that you are there and wouldn't even be vectored to intercept you! If this is the case, then X-band stealth does not make ANY sense. The reason is that most long range search radars are L-band. SAM radars are frequently C-band or S-band. In fact, you rarely see ANYTHING on SAM batteries or AWACs or AAW ships that are X-band at all! It is only very recently that X-band was adopted by a handful of ship board multi-function ESA radars because it simply takes too much energy to obtain the same range in X-band. The lower frequencies, while less precise is good enough unless you need very high discrimination resolution and they are much more efficient. What I am trying to say is that if the F-35 has to be "narrow band" for whatever reason, it'll make more sense to make it L thru S-band biased rather than X thru Ka band biased.


And you won't see any "official" sources, because of the topic. JSF will reduce the detection range of most radar threats. What it won't do is reduce it as well as an aircraft that are all aspect stealth and wide band stealth.
The reason the JSF is not as feature rich in this area is price. You did want the low price didn't you? That is JSF. The reason JSF is setup with a priority of reducing X band and parts of the K series is that those are the things that can really kill you. I could give a damn about a lot of the legacy ground to air threats with JSF. Big deal. Reducing the effects of R-77 though is much more important. And R-77 is going to have a bitch of a time trying to work against JSF ( small nose on R-77 = small (higher freq) ). And the big SU radar is in a similar boat in it's weaponeering mode. Good luck. Eurofighter, and others, same problem. JSF has some good L.O. against the other bands but not to the degree of something like the F-22. Not even close. As far as some of the legacy SAMs like the SA-2, SA-3, SA-6 etc that are still a threat today, btw... yeah a lot of their stuff isn't in X,Ku... however the nice thing about those weapons is JDAM can contempt of engage SA-3 even in a legacy jet, sometimes with SA-2... and sometimes with SA-6. JSF has some "good enough" low design on it to really contempt of engage and kill those threats with JDAM... no problem. JSF is going to accomplish the mission in most scenerios no problem. The source you mention that is biased... may in fact be. However he is an engineer. I am not an engineer, but I play one on F-16.net Laughing

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LowObservable
PostPosted: Feb 22, 2007 - 04:03 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Agendalized? F-16.net, where you learn a new word every day.
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elp
PostPosted: Feb 22, 2007 - 07:09 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Laughing DW...... I don't have all the answers, by a long shot. Fair to say that the topic really shouldn't be explored that much. Also I have been wrong before. Surprised No big deal. We each have our thoughs on this... time will tell. I would say that we are closer on some issues than far apart.

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dwightlooi
PostPosted: Feb 22, 2007 - 10:34 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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elp wrote:
Laughing DW...... I don't have all the answers, by a long shot. Fair to say that the topic really shouldn't be explored that much. Also I have been wrong before. Surprised No big deal. We each have our thoughs on this... time will tell. I would say that we are closer on some issues than far apart.


It doesn't matter if you do, and it doesn't matter if you haven't been wrong before. What I was trying to say is this:-

(1) The argument that F-35 stealth is "narrow band", or at least narrower and than the F-22's, is nothing but speculation on the part of anti-Lightning "analysts" and "critics". Pretty groundless speculation if you ask me, because there is no official comments, documents and/or hints to this regard.

(2) Just because the F-35 is cheaper doesn't mean it is "narrower band". The F-35 benefits from all the research that went into the F-22, and it added another $40 billion worth to it. It is entirely possible that one of the fruits of $40 billion dollars and 15 years worth of work is the development of a stealth treatment package that is as effective, more durable and cheaper to manufacture.

(3) The ONLY obvious thing that sets the F-35 apart from the F-22, RCS wise, is the adoption of the axis-symmetric nozzle. Other than that, it appears to be every bit as LO in terms of shaping.
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elp
PostPosted: Feb 23, 2007 - 02:15 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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I would say there is a difference between the two on a larger order.

Consider what Lt. Gen. Deptula, one of the top USAF guys in PACAF and now doing ISR stuff in D.C. said....

Quote:
The JSF is not a substitute for the F/A-22A. In fact, the JSF will rely on the F/A-22A for air dominance. The F/A-22A offers the performance required to counter advanced ‘double-digit’ SAMs developed in the Soviet Union during the 1980s and later by Russia with NATO reporting names higher than SA-10 and next generation air threats that are growing throughout the Pacific Theater of operations. The F-35A JSF is a low cost, multi-mission aircraft primarily designed for air-to-ground operations to
replace Air Force F-16s and A-10s. Today, the F-15 and F-16 are a highly successful synergistic team;the F/A-22A and F-35A will be the winning team of the future.Too many people look at the F/A-22A as a single role aircraft. It can perform the roles of not only air-to-air but also surface attack, suppression/destruction of enemy air defenses, airborne warning, electronic attack, cruise missile defense, and others. It can perform roles and in situations that the F-15E, and joint strike fighter cannot.


Granted that is for us with a dual team. A JSF only user has some work to do if they want to take on more modern IADS by themselves.

Here is his bio...
http://www.af.mil/bios/bio.asp?bioID=5213

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playloud
PostPosted: Feb 23, 2007 - 02:46 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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All the more reason to build more Raptors. If it is to both take out the double digit SAMS, as well as dominate the air, we need to build more of them.
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dwightlooi
PostPosted: Feb 23, 2007 - 08:13 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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elp wrote:


Granted that is for us with a dual team. A JSF only user has some work to do if they want to take on more modern IADS by themselves.

Here is his bio...
http://www.af.mil/bios/bio.asp?bioID=5213


Let's put it this way. There are many reasons the USAF wants more F-22s. Buying 183 F-22s after spending almost $40 billion on its development is wasteful to say the least. The USAF wants the overwhelmingly dominating A2A capabilities of the F-22 in addition to the merely clearly superior one of the F-35. They have always maintained that they want at least 380 of these jets regardless of what the Rumsfeld pentagon wants to cut it to (be it 277 or 183). The promotion of multi-role capabilities of the F-22 is a way to sell the idea on increasing the buy or rather to sustain the 20/year production indefinitely which is actually very likely IMHO.

This is not to say that the F-22 cannot drop bombs. It can. It can carry about half as heavy a bomb load as the F-35 which is still good enough for most non-hardened targets. It can also fly about 75~80% as far as the F-35 which again is good enough for most missions. It doesn't have EOTS or DAS and it does not have as integrated or as advanced an sensor suite, but that is not strictly speaking essential.

However, the argument that the F-22 is needed to deal with double digit SAMs is a hardsell. It is a hardsell because performance is not the key factor here, stealth is. If you had to rely on performance to evade a Mach 4~5 missile with a 400km range (eg. the S400), Mach 1.7 cruise and a Mach 2 top speed is not going to help too much. What you need is the ability to deny these batteries the ability to find and/or target you well into their missiles physical envelope and pop a weapon at them. For this purpose, the F-35 has considerable advantages. The main ones being its superior sensor suite and its much larger weapon bay. Let's assume that the S-400 battery has an effective radar range of about 450km vs an F-16 at high altitudes. It'll have approximately a 56km range against an F-35 and roughly 40 km vs an F-22. That is the key.

Now, before anyone starts the "F-35 has narrow band stealth" argument again, let me just repeat this. IT IS A COMPLETELY UNSUBSTANTIATED HYPOTHESIS. I can just as well say that the F-22 is narrower band whereas the F-35 is wider band. Why? Because I think so. That is no more and no less unsubstantiated.

In the end, I believe that the USAF will eventually buy F-35s and F-22s at a 3:1 ratio. Which is roughly the manufacturing cost ratio. That is roughly 1,100 F-35s and roughly 400 Raptors. That'll cost roughly the same amount of money as 1780 F-35s and 183 Raptors. The Navy and marine corps will take another 750 or so, bringing the F-35 total to about 1850 for the USA. Exports will bring the F-35's number well past 2500. The F-22 will also eventually be exported to select customers who want and can afford it. Maybe 80~120 units in export tops. That is how I see it all playing out.
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