Rumsfeld's Ouster, Dems' Arrival Could Bring TACAIR Changes
By Michael Fabey/Aerospace Daily & Defense Report
11/13/2006 09:19:29 AM

The departure of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and new Democratic control of the House and Senate could change the acquisition and makeup of the tactical air fleet for the U.S. military, analysts say.

The key change, they say, will be the Air Force's attempt "and probable success" in securing more stealthy F-22 Raptors beyond the 181 ceiling set by Rumsfeld's Pentagon.

Under Rumsfeld, the Pentagon was not a big fan of the F-22. The major reason for the proposed multiyear F-22 buy, analysts said, was to make Raptor production outlast Rumsfeld and create an opportunity for more F-22 buys once the defense secretary was gone.

That one change could cause many ripples across the tactical air fleets. It could lead to fewer buys of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters for all services and, as a result, more F-18 Super Hornet purchases for the Navy and Marines.

"The Air Force will definitely get more F-22s," said Richard Aboulafia, vice president of the Teal Group.

Echoed Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute: "There's no doubt about it."

More F-22s

In a Nov. 3 interview shortly before Rumsfeld's announced resignation, Air Force Gen. Ronald Keys, commander of Air Combat Command, which decides the makeup of the service's fighter fleets, said he would like more F-22s.

The service fleet plan called for about twice the number allowed by the Pentagon.

The number of additional Raptors "and when the Air Force gets them" could decide how the rest of the Pentagon's combat makeup is affected, he said.

The first aircraft to feel a Raptor bite would be the stealthy F-35 JSF, an aircraft meant to compliment the F-22.

Raptors, though, have more capability than F-35s. The Air Force is slated to buy 1,763 JSFs, but, said Thompson, "the Air Force wouldn't hesitate to give any number of JSFs to buy more Raptors."

The F-22s cost between $130 million and $140 million each, not including development costs. The JSF, according to prime contractor Lockheed Martin, will cost about a bit more than a third of the Raptor, which is also made by Lockheed.

The Raptor is already in production, while the JSF is still being developed. Any money spent now to buy F-22s, say Aboulafia, Thompson and other analysts, would be money likely taken from the JSF.

Money taken from JSF development or early production models could delay the program, hike the costs of the aircraft or do both.

The F-35 is a cost-sensitive jet, especially for Lockheed's export plans, and price increases could jeopardize the program.

Navy and Marine budget and program plans through the early part of the next decade call for JSF delivery delays. The Navy is happy with its Super Hornets, while the Marines have been unable to get out from the Navy's yoke or the combat needs of the war in Iraq.

Congress also has taken financial swipes at the F-35, and weight problems have led to additional developmental costs.

Keys said it is not an Air Force predilection for F-22s that would keep the service from buying F-35s, but rather program delays and cost increases. "We want JSFs," he said. "But it's all about the money."

If the Air Force buys fewer JSFs and there are delays by the Navy and Marines in deploying their F-35s, then those services could start to rely on more purchases of Boeing F-18s.

Thompson said Democratic-controlled budgets could come into play.

"JSFs are made in Texas," Thompson said. "F-18s are made in Missouri. Enough said."

But not all analysts think more F-22s will doom the JSF.

"Ultimately, the Air Force may well buy some more F-22s, but a significant extension of the program - involving several years' more production - seems unlikely," said Raymond Jaworowski of Forecast International. "The F-22 could be kept in production as a bridge to JSF, but once JSF is in full-rate production, F-22 production would end."

Thompson, Aboulafia and other analysts said the Air Force will likely try to keep fighting for the multiyear F-22 contract, if only to keep a hedge against further political interference.

More F-22s

In a Nov. 3 interview shortly before Rumsfeld's announced resignation, Air Force Gen. Ronald Keys, commander of Air Combat Command, which decides the makeup of the service's fighter fleets, said he would like more F-22s.

The service fleet plan called for about twice the number allowed by the Pentagon.

The number of additional Raptors "and when the Air Force gets them" could decide how the rest of the Pentagon's combat makeup is affected, he said.

The first aircraft to feel a Raptor bite would be the stealthy F-35 JSF, an aircraft meant to compliment the F-22.

Raptors, though, have more capability than F-35s. The Air Force is slated to buy 1,763 JSFs, but, said Thompson, "the Air Force wouldn't hesitate to give any number of JSFs to buy more Raptors."

The last time the USAF wanted to do a trade they were willing to give up 500 F-35s for 100 more F-22s. Now I don't know that it's THAT good but I could certainly see them saying something like "we'll trade $12 billion worth of F-35s for $12 billion worth of F-22s"

That article is speculation, Idesof. When I was around the program up until mid-05, the cutoff was still 183. That hasn't changed. SecDef can recommend augmentations to the numbers, but the funding ultimately comes down to Congress. His decision can be overridden. With the new Congress, that seems unlikely.

Don't start threads of this nature, unless you have some concrete proof of what you are discussing. You aren't in the AF, and you aren't in the Raptor program, so you really don't know.

Also, don't use this forum to push your politics. It's not professional. No matter what your opinion is on a politician, subject matter like this usually only leads to flame threads, so watch yourself.