Forum: Program and politics

The Netherlands will buy 52 F-35s, shortly after signing the MoU for the next stage (Production Sustainment and follow-on Development) in December '06, they will buy a first batch of 3 testplanes. In 2011 a second batch of 49 planes will be decided. 2007 and 2011 are both election years, if a left-wing government comes to power, they will cancel JSF.

The numbers of 80-85 F-35s, were only used in the SDD JSF business case.

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We have a government coalition including a party that reckons the USA is the greatest threat to world peace (it's in their charter!), but even they haven't dared cancelling the F-35 commitment.

http://www.antenna.nl/amokmar/JSF/Z2006 ... 01_05.html

The cost of the U.S. F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program has risen to $82.1 million, enough to require the Pentagon to notify Congress, which it has done, according to Air Force officials.

Surging material costs, especially for aluminum and titanium; the addition of another wing production line in Italy; and program restructuring are to blame, according to Air Force sources.

The price tag for a single JSF has risen by 33 percent since 2001, when the average plane cost $61.8 million, the sources said.

In January, JSF program officials disclosed the total overrun is estimated to be about $19 billion, the sources said. The Air Force portion of that is about $9.3 billion, they said.

Air Force plans call for buying 1,763 F-35s, but service officials acknowledged they might not be able to afford that many. To make up for the cost overruns, the Air Force is studying how many aircraft it should give up.

One option includes cutting 55 aircraft from the Air Force’s proposed buy. Another option could be to acquire 82 fewer aircraft. A third option would have the Air Force buy 89 fewer aircraft.

The estimated total (R&D + Production) cost of JSF in 2006 is 276.5 billion USDs.

The estimated average fiy-away cost of JSF today is around 82.1 million USDs per fighter.

The estimated R&D cost of JSF plan today is around 276.5 billion - 82.1 million * 2443 (1,763 F-35A and 680 F-35B and C) = 76 billion USDs (About 2 to 2.25 times for the R&D cost of F-22A).

toan wrote:

http://www.antenna.nl/amokmar/JSF/Z2006_XIV_DEN01_05.html
Surging material costs, especially for aluminum and titanium; the addition of another wing production line in Italy; and program restructuring are to blame, according to Air Force sources.

The titanium issue seems a severe one. Russia wants VSMPO-Avisma, world`s largest producer of titanium under state control.
The price for the metal has gone up as well as a massive need for it. Programs like A-380, B-787 which use more of the stuff than any civil job before them.

Simon Henley, head of the UK JSF team has said that the unit price of the JSF depends on the price of titanium, quite a sweeping statement but I can certainly see this being a factor....

The US department of energy is looking at new aluminium alloys that can do the job titanium does so well. This research will not impact the JSF program though. Apparently, the STOVL and Naval versions of JSF will be hardest hit with more titanium being used in their construction for strengthening.

Even if someone guarantees JSF unit price when deals are signed, who will pay for cost increases in materials? Will LM and contractors buy huge amounts of these materials to forestall being ripped off with future price rises? I am talking about aerospace grade titanium.

Some have even likened the titanium shortage as akin to the steel shortage after WW2...ie, having the same impact on cost.

[quote="snypa777"]

toan wrote:

Even if someone guarantees JSF unit price when deals are signed, who will pay for cost increases in materials? Will LM and contractors buy huge amounts of these materials to forestall being ripped off with future price rises? I am talking about aerospace grade titanium.

According to an article in Last Week's Defense News, LM is looking at doing almost exactly that. I supose one could hedge titanium the way Southwest Airlines hedges their fuel cost. That would stabalise the cost without the need for storage.

It would seem expedient for them to do that. Several big industrial players, non-military, are taking no chances and have already grabbed large reserves. It may be more cost effective to store large amounts than to pay through the nose later on....

What might be of concern is Russia's interest to nationalise the production company. The Russians quote that action would..."Safeguard certain metallurgical advances". In other words, we want total control over titanium sales and production! Gives them bigger chips at the table..

Seeing that the price of JSF was not $61m in 2001, it is very difficult to credit the Defense news story that the price is now $82m.

The projected production flyaway price that will be charged to the JSF partners still averages $50m ($47m for F-35A, $60m for F-35B).

On June 6th, 2006 U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Steven Enewold, who directs the Pentagon’s JSF program office confirmed that figure.

The head of Lockheed's JSF program Tom Burbage is also on record that raising raw materials costs like titanium is the biggest threat to that price.

http://www.f-16.net/news_article1325.html

Lockheed still estimates that the per plane "fly-away" cost of the F-35 will be in the predicted range of $45-$55 million in 2003 dollars.

However, most foreign customers won't be able to introduce F-35 until post-2015. Therefore, the factor of inflation must be taken into considered.

Another question is that if the unit productional costs are really 47 million USDs for F-35A, and 60 million for F-35B and C, then the total productional cost of 2,443 F-35 fighters should be around:

47 million * 1,763 + 60 million * 680 = 123.5 billions USDs

However, the total cost of JSF plan today is around 276.5 billion USDs. Does it mean that the R&D cost of F-35 is around 276.5 billion - 123.5 billion = 153 billions USDs ??

This is a price which is more than 4 times of the R&D cost for Raptor, and as for a fighter plan with 2,443 fighters, its R&D cost is more than 55% of the total cost...........~Personally, I think both of them is hard to believe....

The final total numbers for US service could be nearer to 1200 JSF if defence budget trimming gets the go ahead.....I don`t think anyone believes it will be 1,763 anymore.

If you look at thr F-22 model, this pushes unit costs up even more. In the history of the planet, has ANYTHING been sold at a fixed price 9 years before delivery? Well, yes actually, but we usually ask the taxpayer or contractor to cough up the difference.

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d06523t.pdf

TACTICAL AIRCRAFTRecapitalization Goals Are Not Supported by Knowledge-Based F-22A and JSF Business Cases, Tuesday, March 28, 2006

Page 4

DOD estimates that as currently planned, it will cost $257 billion (which has been increased to 276.5 billion USDs later this year) to develop and procure about 2,443 aircraft and related support equipment, with total costs to maintain and operate JSF aircraft adding $347 billion over the program’s life cycle.

The key sentence in that quote is " As currently planned". Only a fortune teller can say the US will have 1,763 JSF in service by 2015-18. A LOT can happen in ten years.... Of course your figures are good for TODAY , that is all we can work with.

Some analysts (CRS) believe that the USAF will be forced to reduce their JSF buy to fund other programs. The JSF will eat up 90% of new aircraft funding, doesn`t leave much for anything else!

The UK originally planned to buy 150 JSF, this number has dropped to 138, almost a 10% cut. 150 was a SOLID number for years.

The F-22 procurement number has steadily dropped from 700+, to 300+, to 183....Just saying that it CAN happen.

The USAF will receive between October 2007 and September 2011 in total 79 F-35s, this low-rate initial production is devided in 5 lots:

Lot 1, 5 aircraft, $ 176.3 million fly-away unit cost (excluding research, development, testing & evaluation cost)
Lot 2, 8 a/c $ 140.1 mln
Lot 3, 15 a/c $ 104.5 mln
Lot 4, 20 a/c $ 92.5 mln
Lot 5, 31 a/c $ 86.7 mln

These prices are based on the original 1.763 F-35s.

Socceroos Socceroos, we will, we will rock Croatia. WE SCORE with Magic Gus, we will score with JSF.

The projected production flyaway price that will be charged to the JSF partners still averages $50m ($47m for F-35A, $60m for F-35B). That is 2006 dollars. That does not mean that the average price of US acquired JSF's is $50m. It means the mature production flyaway is $50m.

150 for the UK has never been "solid". 150 was a very rough calculation done many years ago that assumed RN Sea Harriers & RAF Harriers would be replaced one for one. Overall, the JSF partners this year have indicated their combined purchases will be more not less than the US planned for figure.

There is no suggestion that the US will reduce it's planned purchases. They were re-confirmed in the latest QDR. USAF is looking at the speed of deliveries not numbers.

BTW its UP to 100 for Australia not necessarily 100. have to remember that between now and the time the F-35 would enter into Australian service there is an election.

Australia is probbly interested in the F-22A (for air dominance) and F-35B (for the new assualt ships they are planning on getting). It would be quite smart for Australia to go for either of these. One of the latest defence reviews did say Air Dominance should be a priority for the Australian government, I think that should be translated as 'Buy some F-22s'.

Forum: Program and politics

Oz wobble over F-35