Forum: General F-35 Forum

How the F-35 Nearly Doubled In Price (And Why You Didn’t Know)
By WINSLOW WHEELER | July 9, 2012

"In that one-page summary, GAO states the F-35 program now projects “costs of $395.7 billion, an increase of $117.2 billion (42 percent) from the prior 2007 baseline.”

"The summary [see attachment] uses the wrong baseline. As F-35 observers know and as the table shows, the cost documentation of the F-35 program started in 2001, not 2007. There has been a lot more cost growth than the “$117.2 billion (42 percent)” stated.

Set in 2001, the total acquisition cost of the F-35 was to be $233.0 billion. Compare that to the current estimate of $395.7 billion: cost growth has been $162.7 billion, or 70%: a lot more than what GAO stated in its summary.

However, the original $233 billion was supposed to buy 2,866 aircraft, not the 2,457 currently planned: making it $162 billion, or 70%, more for 409, or 14%, fewer aircraft. Adjusting for the shrinkage in the fleet, I calculate the cost growth for a fleet of 2,457 aircraft to be $190.8 billion, or 93%.

The cost of the program has almost doubled over the original baseline; it is not an increase of 42%."

Read more: http://battleland.blogs.time.com/2012/0 ... z208mImz8z

F-16.net Sponsor

This is what happens when you:

1. Decrease the annual buys from 120 to 80 for the USAF
2. Reduce the overall buy number
3. Increase the test-flights and developmental timeline
4. Assume the worst-case developmental schedule

"WINSLOW WHEELER" LMAO

Poor Winslow, still pretending he figured it out a long time ago, but now he is just ever more desperate.

Kinda sad actually.

I seem to recall that F-16 cost-growth was underestimated as well as it went from being a light WVR A2A supplement for the F-15 to being an all-weather multi-role platform. Then again, Wheeler knows that his internet-generation fanbase is too young to remember any of that.

SpudmanWP wrote:

This is what happens when you:

1. Decrease the annual buys from 120 to 80 for the USAF
2. Reduce the overall buy number
3. Increase the test-flights and developmental timeline
4. Assume the worst-case developmental schedule

Is the F-35 test flight program comparable to ANY other aircraft program in terms of number of tests and test points required and the timeline to complete them? Can anyone here give any insight into why this test program seems to be so drawn out?

1. 3 variants
2. A gazillion lines of code
3. A very conservative test flight program (how long till one went > mach?)
4. Simulation labs did not get certified early enough so more test flights added to compensate
5. ITO&E folks wanted more flight added to re-certify changes

Forum: General F-35 Forum

Wheeler: GAO understates JSF cost growth