Forum: Program and politics

They have not designed anything new or groundbreaking in a long time. Even when they tried, they got it wrong (X-32).

Today the results of the report demanded by the parliament to find out the consequences of a bail out were leaked. It turns out to be cheaper to continue then to bail out. 150 million Euro will be lost when The Netherlands bail out. There will be only financial and practical trouble. Bailing out is not the logical option, concluded the report.
Liberals and Christian parties underline the conclusions. Labour party parliament member Eijsink said "I don't want to jump to conclusions". She is lobbying for bailing out of the project and favours alternatives like the Gripen. So this report is not exactly what she likes to see. Labour party and Liberals are negotiating to rule together after they won the elections. Chances are very real the Dutch will continue the development phase of the JSF (read my lips ). The Minister of Defence announced today to aim for acquiring 56 F-35As. This is significant lower then the always used number of 85. But is was already known that the MoD could not afford this number of aircraft. Numbers between 68 and 48 circulated. Now it turned out to be 56, for now.

For you Fellow Dutchies, news item at the jump:

http://www.nu.nl/binnenland/2940949/doo ... oppen.html

M: thanks for the reports. The first one clearly indicated that there is not enough moneyreserved for 85 aircraft, nor 68. But with less ambitition 56 aircraft will probably fit in the budget. If 85 and 68 is including training aircraft, what makes you think 56 is excluding training aircraft?

Terecht vestigt uw rapport nu de aandacht op de noodzaak van financiële
inpasbaarheid van de vervanger van de F-16. De reservering van
€ 4,5 miljard, waarvan inmiddels € 0,45 miljard is uitgegeven, is niet
voldoende voor de aanschaf van 85 F-35 toestellen – het tot op heden
gehanteerde planningsaantal – of van 68 F-35 toestellen, het huidige
aantal F-16’s.

Ervan uitgaande dat de trend naar intensievere internationale samenwerking in de nabije toekomst aanhoudt, acht Defensie een operationeel verantwoorde
taakuitvoering mogelijk met 56 F-35 jachtvliegtuigen.

From NRC:
Zo kunnen er hooguit 56 toestellen worden gekocht, te weinig om de huidige 68 gevechtsvliegtuigen te vervangen.

So it is only possible to buy 56 aircraft at the maximum, to less to replace the current 68 fighters.

When it is possible to buy 56 aircraft at the maximum, it is not equal to "we can buy 56 aircraft at the maximum, and oh, plus 10 taircraft for training purposes of course".

"...F-35 Lightning II. In 2002, the parliament of the Netherlands decided to invest € 800 million into the development of the F-35—the stealthy, American-designed, multirole fighter that is intended to replace the F-16 not only in the tactical air fleet of the US Air Force, but in many allied air forces as well. The initial expectation was that the Dutch would purchase 85 F-35s. However, with the cuts to the defense budget, that number has been significantly reduced, and, with an eye to further defense reductions, in July 2012 the Dutch parliament voted 77 to 71 to stop funding the project altogether.[18] Although the vote was not binding on the government, it does signal the possibility that the Dutch government might decide to withdraw from the program at a later date.

A sum of € 7.4 billion was initially reserved in the Dutch budget for the replacement of the F-16. While this budget has been lowered to € 4.5 billion, the budget itself is nonnegotiable. In other words, that money will be spent and the existing F-16s will be replaced. To date, the Dutch government has invested € 1.15 billion in the F-35 program and bought two planes for testing.[19] Since the F-16 will be replaced, all the costs incurred in the development of the F-35 thus far would essentially be wasted should the Netherlands choose a different aircraft. This would also be wasted money considering that, given the alternative aircrafts available, it would mean acquiring a fighter that, while still expensive, would be far less capable against modern and emerging air defenses. It is useful to remember that any F-16 replacement would likely be in the Dutch air force inventory for several decades. Also significant is the fact that the F-35 is being developed in conjunction with the United States, giving the Netherlands the opportunity to work closely on an important project with its most important ally.

The Netherlands’ discontinuation of the F-35 program is also a poor decision in terms of sheer economics. As a member of the international consortium that is involved not only in the plane’s development phase but also the ensuing production and sustainment phase, the Netherlands has a stake in the health of the F-35 program over the long term. According to former defense minister Hillen, the profits of co-producing the F-35 could amount to € 9 billion for the Netherlands. Whilst a little more than € 1 billion has been invested thus far, royalties from sales of the plane to nonconsortium countries such as Japan and Singapore are expected to cover the plane’s development costs and more.

The development of the F-35 in the Netherlands alone employs over a 1,000 people, and this number is only expected to rise. Projects of this magnitude also create an entire line of logistical, transport, production, and service industries that generate their own employment and financial benefits. There is also the added value tied to the fact that the program will help Dutch companies maintain cutting-edge engineering and technological skills and, in turn, will help support advanced research at Dutch technological universities. PricewaterhouseCoopers has calculated that the economic benefits of the F-35 would amount to € 16 billion over the life of the program, which would not only cover the Netherlands’ cost for procuring the fighter, but could also offset the cost to operate and maintain the fleet itself.[20]

In sum, backing out of the F-35 program now would leave the Dutch air force with a second-tier aircraft; would undercut the longer-term economic, industrial, and technological benefits associated with the program; and, finally, would put at risk the Netherlands’ credibility as a reliable and trusted NATO partner...."