Forum: General F-35 Forum

UPDATE 2-U.S. Air Force sticking to plans to buy 1,763 F-35 jets 30 Nov 2012 By Andrea Shalal-Esa

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/11/3 ... AV20121130

* Pentagon, Lockheed said nearing deal for more jets

* Air Force spends 15 pct of investment budget on F-35 alone

"NEW YORK, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The U.S. Air Force affirmed on Thursday its plans to buy 1,763 F-35 fighter jets built by Lockheed Martin Corp in coming years, as Lockheed and the government neared agreement on a multi-billion dollar contract for a fifth batch of planes.

Air Force Secretary Michael Donley told an investor conference that the service remained committed to the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, which alone accounts for 15 percent of the service's annual investment spending, and had no plans to revise its projected purchase of 1,763 of the new radar-evading jets.

"I don't think there's any reason to revisit that anytime in the near future," Donley told the Credit Suisse conference, underscoring his support for the Pentagon's biggest weapons program.

He said it was not feasible to consider cutting orders or make other major changes to the $396 billion F-35 program, which has already been restructured three times in recent years to allow more time for technology development and to save money...."

Then the usual bollocks about being close to an agreement on something or other.... I guess we will hear now that this chap Donley is lying - right? For Fsake.
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USAF sticks to F-35 fleet requirements Dave Majumdar 30 Nov 2012

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... ts-379618/

"...Donley says he has heard many alternatives plans that call for the USAF to reallocate funding to more urgent priorities or buying fewer F-35s, but those plans are not feasible. "These are good theoretical discussions, but when you look at where we are in the programme, it makes no sense to have these discussions until about 2025," Donley says. "There is nothing in the near-term about this programme that will change; there is nothing that it will contribute to deficit reduction in the next ten years with the exception of its cancellation."

Cancelling the F-35 programme, in Donley view, is not something that anyone would recommend, he says."

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So not buying so many Raptors might've paid off? Smile

firstimpulse wrote:

So not buying so many Raptors might've paid off? Smile

Even if the US was reviving the F-22, they would have to solve the glitches in it first.

So you are telling me the F-35 is not going to be outnumbered 10-1?

So the F-35 will outnumber the F-22 ~10:1

f-22lm wrote:

firstimpulse wrote:

So not buying so many Raptors might've paid off? Smile

Even if the US was reviving the F-22, they would have to solve the glitches in it first.

I didn't mention anything about reviving the F-22. Just thought that perhaps limiting the Raptor buy below 200 might've saved a few bucks for some more F-35s... as this was one of the main reasons the original fifth gen program was cut short.

The Raptor will never make a come back as its system and stealth technology are to dated already. Not to mention you can get 3 F-35 for the price of one F-22.

Here is a key paragraph from the article:

"Details of the expected agreement were not immediately available, but sources familiar with the negotiations said they expected it to include a reduction in the cost for each F-35 fighter jet from the fourth production contract, although the number of jets to be ordered will not increase."

The timing of this release is likely necessary in order to coincide with finalizing LRIP V (and VI) negotiations. It's a msg to LMT... Give us your best offer, because see, we're confirming our original total order official position (regardless of substantial revisions of annual buy rates to date and likely continued revisions of annual LRIP rates and eventual FRP buy rates in the 'real' near and medium future).

It's normal politics and is expected. That is, to give any official 'ambiguity' as to Total Production orders at this point would be completely shocking to the greater calculus in all negotiations and expectations of estimates, including for partners. Any future 'official revision' in total USAF production would therefore need to be released at the proper time and as part of a comprehensive strategic revision perhaps made in the next couple years.

But with respect to the quote... "There is nothing in the near-term about this programme that will change...", it's perfectly likely that the reality is of course, that there will be a continued revision in USAF FY14 and especially FY15 F-35A buy orders. Sure, this won't necessarily affect the official claimed goal of 1,763 units however, as the shortfall revisions can just be verbally back-ended down the road in acquisition, eg, for an assumed 90 USAF jet's per year ordered by 2020, etc.

But one could easily assess that given encroaching austere budget environments going forward, there will be lost buying power and not the substantially increased Procurement budgets which will be required to stay the course and procure higher than originally expected costing F-35s.

'geogen' did you miss this part of the quote above? "..."...Donley says he has heard many alternatives plans that call for the USAF to reallocate funding to more urgent priorities or buying fewer F-35s, but those plans are not feasible. "These are good theoretical discussions, but when you look at where we are in the programme, it makes no sense to have these discussions until about 2025," Donley says...."

I'm aware that it's of the Secy's natural opinion that it will not be feasible to buy fewer or communicate publicly a plan to buy fewer in the near-term, or further delay recapitalization in general, etc. But the reality is that to date there have been significant reductions YoY in annual procurement overall compared to original estimates (feasible or not) and that budget/finance dictates going forward will continue to be the ultimate decider vis-a-vis how many will be afforded (under a feasible stay the course plan or not).

Yeah but the SEC is saying that process has stopped. It is as it is. Shirley. "... buying fewer F-35s, but those plans are not feasible..."

Will falling off the fiscal cliff change the statement?

The Airforce has obviously made a thorough analysis regarding the military requirements and found that 1763 F-35 is needed. So far so good. What isn't worrying but outright scary is that they once made similar asessement saying that the absolut minimum requirement was for 381 F-22 Raptors.

The question is if there will be enough funds available for the required number of airframes this time, considering other future purchases that are also necessary. I'm thinking of in a not so distant future the new tankers and a new long range bomber. An F-22 replacement is not as far away either, to just mention a small number of big ticket projects.

firstimpulse wrote:

I didn't mention anything about reviving the F-22. Just thought that perhaps limiting the Raptor buy below 200 might've saved a few bucks for some more F-35s... as this was one of the main reasons the original fifth gen program was cut short.

The funding for the Raptor's had ZERO to do with funding for the F-35. It was not a reason for cutting the program.