Forum: Program and politics

I'm with the German cruiser on this one. Taiwan needs to stop wasting time and money on a vain attempt to match the PLAAF. In their situation, SAMs and SSKs are the kind of investment that will make a Chinese invasion risky, not a few dozen F-35s.

F-16.net Sponsor

Taiwan is going to be fighting a defensive war, they don't need a strike fighter. They can upgrade their existing fleet of F16s and make the bulk of their investment in SAM and anti ship missiles. I'm sure the Russians can cut them a deal.

checksixx wrote:

Why in the world would they want B models??

Because their runways are presently on the pointy end of something like 2000 Chinese ballistic missiles. Probably looking for a way to break that umbilical.

1st503rdsgt wrote:

I'm with the German cruiser on this one. Taiwan needs to stop wasting time and money on a vain attempt to match the PLAAF. In their situation, SAMs and SSKs are the kind of investment that will make a Chinese invasion risky, not a few dozen F-35s.

If I were them, I'd go for submarines, cruise missiles, and nukes. I'd make a tight relationship with Israel, as their situations are somewhat similar.

sferrin wrote:

If I were them, I'd go for submarines, cruise missiles, and nukes. I'd make a tight relationship with Israel, as their situations are somewhat similar.

Subs and missiles are not much of deterrence without proper warhead, and short range nukes just won't happen. Israel is not facing a nuclear power.

Taiwan's strategy is to defend for a certain weeks. STOVL can be a good choice, besides SAMs.
And US is trying to keep the balance over the strait, not more, not less. I believe it will sell F-35 when proper adversary joins service.

US-Sino ties can rebound from sale: Glaser By William Lowther 23 May 2012

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/ ... 03533520/1

"...“More importantly,” there was a continuing ongoing discussion in Washington and Taipei about the best weapons systems for Taiwan, she said.

“Taiwan faces many different kinds of threats,” Glaser said.

She said that more accurate Chinese missiles might destroy Taiwan’s runways, making it difficult to launch or land the F-16s.

There was now “reasonable discussion” Glaser said, as to whether the F-16C/Ds were “the best way for Taiwan to spend its money.”

Some people, she said, thought Taiwan would be better off buying vertical takeoff and landing F-35s.

Others, she said, believe Taiwan should not be investing in aircraft at all.

“This is a really important conversation for Taiwan and the US to have,” Glaser said...."

Overview at jump including potential F-16C/D sales to Taiwan....

Taiwanese air force faces plane shortage by 2020 By J. Michael Cole May 26, 2012

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/a ... 2003533746

"MUST HAVE:By 2020, the number of fighter aircraft in the air force would decrease by 70 percent without the acquisition of new F-16s, a US congressional report says.

More recent events, which are not covered in the CRS report, seem to indicate that Taiwan is having second thoughts about running the two programs in parallel. Earlier this month, legislators and senior military officials said that the F-16A/B upgrades were more expensive than expected and that Taiwan might not have the financial resources to do both. Some also argued that rather than purchase the new F-16C/Ds, Taiwan should instead bid for Lockheed Martin’s F-35B, a problem-plagued aircraft that is still under development.

Such signaling has given rise to speculation in defense circles that Taiwan might want out of the F-16C/D project, at a time when the White House may finally be willing to make the aircraft available...."

More about the F-16 plans at the jump.

I think that the F-35B, in the case of Taiwan, is more of the generals engaging in wishful techno-fantasy than proper defense analysis.

No realistic F-35B force for Taiwan can hope to be decisive in delaying a Chinese invasion. Taiwan's budget is, and always will be, too small to buy a sufficient number of JSF fighters to achieve anything approaching military parity. In the meantime, China is pursuing stealth fighters of its own, fighters that will blunt the advantages of the JSF.

Even ignoring the Chinese development of stealth fighters, the JSF won't offer radical increases in defensive value. They can be counted on to do 3 - 4 sorties a day, each sortie achieving a nice solid hit on some Chinese ship, but they'll suffer attrition. And those air attacks against the Chinese fleet are what the Chinese will expect, so the F-35B squadrons will be flying into an intense combination of SAM / fighter defenses. As we all know, stealth helps but it cannot save the fighter against overwhelming active defensive force. Attacks against the fleet will only increase the F-35's attrition rate. In the end, all of the F-35's will be ruthlessly ground into the dust by the vastly superior PLAAF.

Instead of spending the billions on the F-35, the Taiwanese can develop far more effective defensive equipment. Here are just two examples of investments that will pay off far in excess of any F-35 force.
1) Shore based rapid mine laying equipment. If the Taiwanese can lay a thick and advanced minefield across significant portions of the Taiwan straight, a minefield that covers key approaches, landing grounds, etc., they can delay any Chinese attack by a significant amount of time. Here, perhaps UUVs can be effectively deployed. The UUVs can be shore launched and set out to lay a thick minefield. As the Chinese spend time clearing the mines, the Taiwanese can thin the approaching ships with shore launched, road mobile, super sonic anti-ship missiles or, my personal favorite, UUVs carrying heavy torpedoes, effectively torpedo cruise missiles.
2) A high altitude infrared / self guided SAM. Any Taiwanese SAM site will be subjected to immediate SEAD attacks, using ballistic missiles or aircraft. If the Taiwanese can build a SAM that self guides to a high altitude, 25k+, and deploys these road mobile missiles across the country, they can contest control of the air even after the Chinese have destroyed all radar sites in the country. (With 1000+ SRBMs, that outcome is all but inevitable). These SAMs can raise the cost of air operations, deter the Chinese from launching airborne attacks, and generally prevent total Chinese air supremacy.

Both of those two previous technologies reflect the overwhelming conventional superiority of China's military with respect to Taiwan. I believe they would be far more effective in deterring any Chinese attack than a small force of F-35Bs. But, they represent a more passive form of defense for Taiwan, one that deliberately downplays direct competition, and so they may not be as popular with the Taiwanese military leadership.

Where are the Taiwanese allies in the above scenario?

After an invasion, the Taiwanese allies are deciding whether or not to enter into the most destructive war since WW2, spazsinbad. Taiwan has no assurance of outside support, only brave resistance and a significant delay in the PLA's attach can give Taiwan any hope of outside armed intervention.

Here is where the F-35B perhaps has its greatest weakness. Taiwan, by all measures, faces a desperate situation. They are hopelessly outclassed in terms of sheer material and manpower, hence any defense can only buy them time. If the Taiwanese wish to get outside support, they need to show that they will not surrender in the middle of the war but will resist long enough to be rescued by outside countries. The F-35B represents a cop-out, a belief in technological superiority that will overcome the massive Chinese military. A F-35 equipped Taiwanese military will be tempted to become the like the Israeli conventional forces before 2006's war with Hezbollah, a force dependent on its technological capabilities and one that was proven to be hollow in other areas.

On the other hand, a Taiwanese military that eschews the 'easy road' of a limited number of high-tech weapons will be more likely to survive the shock of a Chinese attack. That military can be trained in tactics and operations that recognize the PLA's superiority. The Taiwanese should have as their model Hezbollah or the IED. Hezbollah for the military force that held at bay a vastly superior force for a whole month and the IED as a weapon which, at minimal cost, prompted enormous expenditure from the US.

Think of it this way. Compare the standard complaint about the Gulf States to the present state of the Israeli military. The Saudis can buy the best weapons in the world and can equip their military to a level equal to, if not greater than, the Israelis. Yet no one believes that the Saudi military can win, except by force of numbers, even with the technological superiority. Technology does not matter when it is bought by a nation mentally unprepared for intense war. Buying the F-35B gives the Generals a convenient force to point to, something small and elite and "powerful." But it does not force the Generals, or the Taiwanese people, to recognize and react to their true military situation.

No question that Taiwan is in a tough situation. I don't see 'tigers' swallowing a 'porcupine' though. Deterring any invasion and buying time is useful. I wonder what the present situation holds for Taiwan. A buildup will be seen, with appropriate measures taken by those involved as allies of Taiwan, to further the deterrence quotient.

The ROCAF will just be one cog, albeit an important one, in the Island's defense. Manned aircraft will have a role to play in the overall scheme of things, along with naval and ground forces. One also has to factor in the US response to any aggression. The F-35 won't save the day all by itself, but it will arguably do a more effective job than the F-16 fleet would do without the new jet to partner with.

The ROC has had decades to ponder their situation, we on this board have devoted perhaps a couple of minutes of our time to their strategic situation. If in their estimation their air component would benefit most from the F-35 complementing the F-16 fleet and in interoperability with friendly forces, they are owed the benefit of the doubt they,have done their due diligence.

From the US's point of view, it only makes sense to sell the JSF to Taiwan once the Taiwanese have demonstrated through a substantial military build up, currently their defense budget is about 2.5% of GDP (according to CIA world factbook). That level is lower than the US and lower than Israel, the country whose situation is closest to Taiwan. Until the Taiwanese show that they are determined to defend themselves, a determination reflected in budgeting and a degree of national preparedness, it doesn't make sense to sell them the US's primary fighter. Worst case scenario, the Taiwanese decide that resisting China is not worth the cost and they surrender advanced US tech to China. Already, Taiwan has an issue with Chinese spying.

The US would be better served selling them surplus / outdated weaponry (such as all of the old Harpoon missiles), before the US goes and sells them the newest kit.

Forum: Program and politics

Abandon F-16s, seek F-35Bs: Taiwan senior military officials