Forum: General F-35 Forum

LINK to PDF from DOD in the story below with links below that...

Drones to Increase 45% in Pentagon 30-Year Aviation Plan By Roxana Tiron - Apr 11, 2012

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-1 ... -plan.html

Annual Aviation Inventory and Funding Plan Fiscal Years (FY) 2013-2042

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rCLGl9FIO910 (PDF 281Kbs)

Some Direct Quotes from the DOD PDF Plan itself

"...Acquire fifth-generation fighter/attack aircraft while maintaining sufficient inventory capacity. Legacy fighter/attack aircraft are important today, as evidenced by their involvement in the current operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, the capability limitations of 4th generation aircraft against anti-access threats make them less survivable in the future, hence the Department’s emphasis on 5th generation capabilities. The Department’s fifth-generation assets will grow from about 7 percent of the current force of manned fighter/attack aircraft to about 25 percent by FY 2022. The Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) will account for the bulk of the DoD’s fifth-generation inventory. This aviation plan reflects revised planning for the JSF and incorporates the Department’s latest estimates to fund the additional system development and demonstration needed to complete design and testing as well as reduce the risk of procuring aircraft too early in their design. The DoN slowed the F-35 production ramp to meet top line budget requirements and address programmatic risk due to concurrent testing and production. The reduction of F-35B/Cs is mitigated through management of strike fighter inventory across the Department and in coordination with the U.S. Air Force. The DoN continues to pursue initiatives through supply and service life management programs to extend the life of its legacy aircraft. By FY 2042, almost all of today’s “legacy” force will have retired and the Department will have begun recapitalization of its fifth-generation force. Because long term projections involve inherent uncertainties, the Department is continuing to evaluate projected threats and will maintain the agility to adopt alternative means for defeating those threats...."
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"...F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.
The difference between the CAPE and SCP cost estimates for the F-35 is primarily attributed to the areas of procurement (2%), MILCON (86%), and O&S (6%). The largest difference between CAPE and SCP estimates of procurement costs is attributable to the assumed future levels of commonality between F-35 variants. The CAPE estimate reflects less commonality among the three F-35 variants than the SCP estimate and, as a result, the CAPE estimates of variant unit costs are higher because of the inherent procurement inefficiencies associated with reduced commonality. The SCP estimate for MILCON uses previously-generated, narrowly defined service estimates that did not include all MILCON efforts required to support the entire F-35 fleet. The CAPE estimate is based on the facilities and infrastructure required for the joint training center planned for Elgin Air Force Base, and service-specific requirements for the Air Force, the Marine Corps, and the Navy. To estimate O&S costs, the SCP reflects the manning structure outlined in the MER. The CAPE estimate adjusts mission personnel to better reflect the actual staffing of the F-16 and F-22, which are on average more senior in grade than those in the MER. Also, the CAPE estimate of unit-level consumption costs is higher than the SCP, primarily because the CAPE estimate uses an F-22 analogy for government-provided consumables while the SCP uses legacy Navy data. The CAPE estimate also applies cost growth to both the air vehicle and engine, while the SCP applies cost growth only to the air vehicle...."
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Another LINK:
DoD’s 30-Year Aviation Plan:
http://defensetech.org/2012/04/12/dods- ... tion-plan/
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Another LINK:
Pentagon Aviation Plan To Cost $770 Billion Apr 12, 2012 By Jen DiMascio
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/ ... e=Pentagon Aviation Plan To Cost $770 Billion

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It'll be more than 45%. I believe that figure only includes a few categories of UCAS and while I just skimmed the report it's not clear fighter sized UCAS are listed in the planning. It's a sure bet this number will increase given USN UCAS-D (X-47B) entering service this decade along with the USAF operating a similar system eventually.

It's also worth noting both the F/A-18E/F replacement and F-22 follow on are named in the 30 year plan, F/A-XX and F-X. Further the number of tactical aircraft are planned to very marginally increase from today's levels. One would be forgiven for suspecting this number will at least marginally decrease.

As long as USAF gets 1600-1700 F-35s and maybe ~300 manned 6th-gen fighters, I will be one very happy guy. Stick in the odd squadron of SEAD/buddy UCAVs and we have a done deal.

We may not need 6th-gen manned fighters. Imagine an F-35 riding heard on a pack of stealthy, inhumanly maneuverable autonomous drones. Air combat might end up more like "Starcraft" than "Ace Combat".

count_to_10 wrote:

We may not need 6th-gen manned fighters. Imagine an F-35 riding heard on a pack of stealthy, inhumanly maneuverable autonomous drones. Air combat might end up more like "Starcraft" than "Ace Combat".

I actually see it more as Battletech, but the F-35 is not especially suited for the airborne C2/C3/C4I/whatever role. This role would be better filled by a two-seat, twin-engine aircraft or something akin to a VLO S-3 Viking.

southernphantom wrote:

count_to_10 wrote:

We may not need 6th-gen manned fighters. Imagine an F-35 riding heard on a pack of stealthy, inhumanly maneuverable autonomous drones. Air combat might end up more like "Starcraft" than "Ace Combat".

I actually see it more as Battletech, but the F-35 is not especially suited for the airborne C2/C3/C4I/whatever role. This role would be better filled by a two-seat, twin-engine aircraft or something akin to a VLO S-3 Viking.

You are assuming that the human in the F-35 is still flying the plane. At some point, the "pilot" will just be just telling the plane he is sitting what to do in the same way he is telling the rest of his drones, because the plane is better at flying itself than he is.