Forum: General F-35 Forum

Last edited by popcorn on Apr 01, 2012 - 05:15 PM; edited 1 time in total

The folks at SLD take a trip back in time to 1957 and does a "what if" and asking the GAO to project 55 years into the future to the year 2012. Interesting read..

http://www.sldinfo.com/the-1957-perspec ... -military/

THE 1957 PERSPECTIVE ON THE 2012 US MILITARY

by Robbin Laird

Recently, we have seen yet again, a US government report on the life cycle costs of the F-35 fleet from a 55 year perspective!

One could ask a simple question: what has mandated this question and why are they not fired?

There are many questions one can ask in life but wondering about the lifecycle costs of combat systems 55 years in the future is not one of them.

There can only be one purpose of posing this question: to come up with a PR number to club the program...

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I feel like it would have more punch if someone could actually fill in the $XX with a reasonable ball-park figure. How much did all of those F-4s cost (including maintenance, fuel, and ordinance)? How about in 1980's dollars?

Interesting question. Did some very basic counting, concerning historical fuel prices and fuel did cost per flying hour. As well as cost per year (180 flying hours).
Doesn’t matter some more or less, this gives an idea about fuel costs per hour, compared with fuel costs per hour in 2011/2012.

Did use 4000 lbs -5000 lbs per flying hour of an F16.

Source: pounds per hour
Tucson-based F-16 pilot reaches 5,000 flying hours. May 13, 2011 (by Maj. Gabe Johnson).

Fuel costs: Low figures used
U.S. Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Retail Sales by Refiners (Dollars per Gallon): 1975-2012
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHa ... PG&f=M

Fuel cost did raise: 1975-2011/2012

Fuel cost per flying hour:
o 1975: $172 -$215
o 1999: $224 -$281
o 2011: $1775 - $2218

Fuel cost per 180 hours:
o 1975: $ 31,100 - $ 38,875
o 1999: $ 40,473 - $ 50,591
o 2011: $319,526 - $399,408

1975: $0.292 per gallon
o 4000-5000 lbs per flying hour: $172.7810 - $215.9763
o 180 flying hours per year: $ 31,100.58 - $ 38,875,73

1999: $0.380 per gallon
o 4000-5000 lbs per flying hour: $224.8520 - $281.0650
o 180 flying hours per year: $ 40,473.36 - $ 50,591.70

2011: ±$3 per gallon
o 4000-5000 lbs per flying hour: $1775.147 - $2218.9347
o 180 flying hours per year: $319,526.46 - $399,408.46

wow, tenfold in recent decade.
Yet fuel is not majority of flying cost

Not majority of flying cost. Never realised, but indeed this seems less important

Actually, concerning fuel cost, military fuel did not became that expensive, compared with wages

Made a comparison with a average wage in 1976, at that time common in my profession, and what’s more or less common in my profession in 2012 (Netherlands).
This shows fuel cost in 1976 was not that different compared with military fuel cost and a wage in 2012.

Wage: 1976-2012
1976: Fl. 865 = €132.58 = US $ 292.19
2012: Fl.4187= €1900 = US $2530.61

Fuel cost: 1975-2011/2012
1975: $0.292 per gallon
o 4000-5000 lbs per flying hour: $172 - $215

2011/2012: ±$3 per gallon
o 4000-5000 lbs per flying hour: $1775 - $2218

Wage versus fuel cost per hour
o 1975/76: US $ 292.19 <-> $172 - $215
o 2012: US $2530.61 <-> $1775 - $2218

Used rates:
Fl. 865 (Rate June 1976: $1 = fl. 2.7379)
Fl. 865 = US$ 292.19

Fl. 865 (Rate: €1 = fl. 2.20371)
Fl. 865 = €132.58

We seem to forget the relation between historical figures, figures nowadays and figures in the future.
The mentioned huge costs for the F35, 55 years, has to be seen in perspective.
As well as in the 70th, some 100 bombs were needed to destroy a target, while now only one or two bombs, or missiles, are needed to achieve a same, or a much better effect.

Not even that, with the advanced weapons now in use, in fact war, after war costs, became cheaper.
A lot less, collateral damage, houses, infra structure etc. will be destroyed, compared with decades ago.

Avoiding collateral damage and sparing civil lives, as best as we can, became highly important last decades. But this was -/and is only possible because we do have highly advanced jets.
In fact, when one is against the F35, or any other new advanced jet, one is against new techniques to prevent collateral damage, and civil life, in a better way than we ever did before.

Forum: General F-35 Forum

Back to the Future (SLD Style)