Forum: General F-35 Forum

"In the troubled world of defense acquisition, the U.S. Navy’s Boeing P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft shines as a rare example of a program that appears to be broadly staying on both schedule and cost."

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/ ... rst%20P-8A

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the P-8 as a model example, really? Airframe already existed with little modification. Equipment inside, already existed. This is the equivalent of custom fitting a B-737 for a NBA team. It's not that hard (compared to even the F-16 which piggy backed a lot of older technologies.

Sufa Viper

Double Post, Sorry

Sufa Viper

So is it that JSF forgets its initial goal of building an economical quantity fighter, or that 5G fighters do cost so much, at least twice of a super hornet, no matter how many planes you build?

megasun wrote:

So is it that JSF forgets its initial goal of building an economical quantity fighter, or that 5G fighters do cost so much, at least twice of a super hornet, no matter how many planes you build?

At full rate production, an F-35 won't be anywhere near 2X the cost of a Super Hornet.

wrightwing wrote:

megasun wrote:

So is it that JSF forgets its initial goal of building an economical quantity fighter, or that 5G fighters do cost so much, at least twice of a super hornet, no matter how many planes you build?

At full rate production, an F-35 won't be anywhere near 2X the cost of a Super Hornet.

I have the impression that it will be a number like that.
In the latest Air Force Aircraft Procurement document, FY13, the projected F-35 Flyaway Unit Cost after FY2017 will lower to 107 million. And it is more than last year's document, which projected to something around 90 million.
http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/budget/
While Super Hornet 2011 Flyaway Unit Cost is something like 55 million.

Actually the flyaway cost of a FY17 F-35 is $89.00 million according to the budget. (page 4, you need to add the Airframe, Engine and electronics line)

When you look at the year to year changes in Flyaway estimates, you must consider the context.

In the FY2012 budget, the total production from 2013 to 2016 was 184 F-35As (with a Flyaway in FY2016 of $89mil). In the FY2013 budget, they gutted this buy to a total of 118 (with a FY2016 flyaway of $111). The reduction was 36% with only an increase in price of 25%. You cannot gut a program that much and still expect the prices to remain anywhere near the same.

The F-35B&C programs were even cut by a larger margins, 38% for the B and 64% for the C.

btw, the latest F-18E Flyaway cost is $82 mil, not $55. (you also are comparing REC Flyaway of the F-18 with the Full Flyaway of the F-35).

Last edited by maus92 on Mar 24, 2012 - 02:17 AM; edited 4 times in total

megasun wrote:

I have the impression that it will be a number like that.
In the latest Air Force Aircraft Procurement document, FY13, the projected F-35 Flyaway Unit Cost after FY2017 will lower to 107 million. And it is more than last year's document, which projected to something around 90 million.
http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/budget/
While Super Hornet 2011 Flyaway Unit Cost is something like 55 million.

SpudmanWP wrote:

When you look at the year to year changes in Flyaway estimates, you must consider the context.

In the FY2012 budget, the total production from 2013 to 2016 was 184 F-35As (with a Flyaway in FY2016 of $89mil). In the FY2013 budget, they gutted this buy to a total of 118 (with a FY2016 flyaway of $111). The reduction was 36% with only an increase in price of 25%. You cannot gut a program that much and still expect the prices to remain anywhere near the same.

The F-35B&C programs were even cut by a larger margins, 38% for the B and 64% for the C.

btw, the latest F-18E Flyaway cost is $82 mil, not $55. (you also are comparing REC Flyaway of the F-18 with the Full Flyaway of the F-35).

We need to be specific when using a "flyaway" cost, because mixing the flavors clouds the issue.

URF for F-35A in FY2017 is estimated to be ~$89M [4,268.058/48] - the cheapest year.

URF for F-18E/F in FY2013 is estimated to be ~$54M [1,413.401/26] - the cheapest year (production authorization ends in FY2014 with a buy under minimum sustainable rate)

The URF is calculated by dividing Flyaway-Total Recurring Cost by units ordered, since Unit Recurring Flyaway (URF) is not reflected directly in the budgets.

Sources: USAF PB FY2013, USN PB FY2013

The flyaway cost can be meaningfully compared to another cost metric: the weapons system cost. The weapons system cost (often referred to as the procurement cost) is the total price of the aircraft.
A good way of looking at the difference is the flyaway cost is the cost of making the aircraft, but the weapons system cost is the cost of buying the aircraft. Weapons systems costs may include ancillary equipment costs, one time non-recurring contract costs, and airframe, engine and avionics support costs.

For example, the flyaway cost for the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet up to 2009 (for the 449 units built) was US$ 57.5 million per, but the weapons system cost was 39.8% higher, at US$ 80.4 million per unit. [4] Not surprisingly, advocates who want to minimize the costs of an aircraft will often report the "flyaway cost" as the purchase price.
Conversely, the production cost of technologically complicated aircraft will always be higher during the low rate initial production period, and costs per units invariably drop as an aircraft is put into full production.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flyaway_cost

Quote:

We need to be specific when using a "flyaway" cost, because mixing them clouds the issue.

Completely agree with you there.

Your numbers are correct, but need some considerations to be considered an "apples to apples" comparison.
1. No MAWS on the F-18
2. No FLIR in that price (add a couple of mil)
3. No IRST in that price (add a couple of mil)
4. The F-35 is based on 2017 dollars and the F-18 is 2013 (add $4 mil for inflation [2% per year])
5. The F-35 will continue to get cheaper as it goes into FRP, while the F-18 will only get more expensive due to inflation.

At no time will a F-18 be half the price of a F-35 (with all the combat-required electronics carried).

SpudmanWP wrote:

Quote:

We need to be specific when using a "flyaway" cost, because mixing them clouds the issue.

Completely agree with you there.

Your numbers are correct, but need some considerations to be considered an "apples to apples" comparison.
1. No MAWS on the F-18
2. No FLIR in that price (add a couple of mil)
3. No IRST in that price (add a couple of mil)
4. The F-35 is based on 2017 dollars and the F-18 is 2013 (add $4 mil for inflation [2% per year])
5. The F-35 will continue to get cheaper as it goes into FRP, while the F-18 will only get more expensive due to inflation.

At no time will a F-18 be half the price of a F-35 (with all the combat-required electronics carried).

1. ATFLIRs are factory installed and included in recurring flyaway for F-18s - it has been for some time. IRST will not be included since they will be moved from plane to plane - much like the TARPS pod. Maybe a future MYP will include them.

2. Not sure about the inflation allowance - it is unclear how allowances for inflation are included in the costs beyond BY2013. [It would also be unfair to use a FY2013 URF for the F-35A]

3. F-18s can have 2 sets of eyes. WSOs need job security.

4. The F-35 only has one engine - a concern to some Canadians, and those who fly over [cold] waters.

5. F-35s don't do towed decoys that are standard w/ F-18s.

6. F-35s need to get cheaper, but after FY2017, the cost to complete URF trends upward: ~$97M [148,729.485/1,529].

7. If a MYPIV agreement for F-18s becomes necessary, Boeing has an incentive keep F-18s significantly cheaper than F-35.

megasun wrote:

wrightwing wrote:

megasun wrote:

So is it that JSF forgets its initial goal of building an economical quantity fighter, or that 5G fighters do cost so much, at least twice of a super hornet, no matter how many planes you build?

At full rate production, an F-35 won't be anywhere near 2X the cost of a Super Hornet.

I have the impression that it will be a number like that.
In the latest Air Force Aircraft Procurement document, FY13, the projected F-35 Flyaway Unit Cost after FY2017 will lower to 107 million. And it is more than last year's document, which projected to something around 90 million.
http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/budget/
While Super Hornet 2011 Flyaway Unit Cost is something like 55 million.

FY17 isn't FRP, and the Super Hornet's $55m, doesn't include jamming pods, ESM pods, targeting pods, ATFLIR, external fuel tanks, towed decoys, etc... the F-35 cost includes all avionics/sensors.

Future projected costs in budgets is in "Then Year" dollars (ie inflation included).

Sidestepping the costs debate, the bottom line of any successful weapons program is if the end-product gets the job done.
Legacy jets are already in serious peril going up against a modern air defense system, the kind of technology that already proliferates. The threat will become even more ubiquitous and lethal in the coming years. Legacy jets may cost marginally cheaper to buy at the outset but offer significantly less capability and utility going into the future.

Forum: General F-35 Forum

So What Makes a Good Weapons Program Anyways?