Forum: Program and politics

The F35 is not really an item for some time in the Netherlands. Probably we won’t hear that much as well, coming two years, because a next government has to decide ordering the F35.

Some update about the F35 concerning a first order. When a next government will go ahead with the F35, 10 additional F35’s will be ordered. Last LRIP series, delivery in 2019

Letter to Parliament, Jan. 20 2012
http://www.defensie.nl/actueel/kamerstukken/

Quote: Mocht een volgend kabinet besluiten tot de aanschaf van de F-35 als vervanger van de F-16, dan schaft Nederland volgens de nu voorziene invoerreeks naast de reeds aangeschafte twee toestellen nog eens tien toestellen aan in de LRIP-fase.
Volgens de huidige planning worden deze eerste tien toestellen in de laatste LRIP-reeks geproduceerd en in 2019 opgeleverd.

Translation: If a subsequent cabinet decisions to the purchase of the F-35 as a replacement for the F-16, then according to the Netherlands planned now input string in addition to the already purchased two appliances another ten aircraft in the LRIP-phase.
According to the current planning these first ten aircraft in the last LRIP-series will be produced and in 2019 delivered.

Not that sure about the LRIP series? Does he means LRIP 8? A bit confusing, some time ago, on F16.net, more LRIP series were mentioned

F-16.net Sponsor

Perhaps this is what you had in mind? http://www.f-16.net/index.php?name=PNph ... p+9#212343

via SWP Knotts 14 Dec 2011 brief:

http://atlanticalliance.ca/userfiles/fi ... Canada.pdf (0.6Mb)

http://www.f-16.net/attachments/f_35mas ... 11_201.gif

I gotta say, I really like that 1763 number. Techno-trash or no techno-trash, it should be a step up over the Viper, and that kind of numbers will probably result in NEW(!) squadrons, and ANG units that were stuck with drones/C-21s/intel taskings will actually have the ability to provide NORAD/Noble Eagle intercepts. Even if that 1763 is split between F-35s and F-15SEs, F-22Bs or what have you, it sounds great.

spazsinbad wrote:

Perhaps this is what you had in mind? http://www.f-16.net/index.php?name=PNph ... p+9#212343

Thanks Spasz. So the last LRIP series is LRIP-11. Any idea what year LRIP-11 starts?

According to year scale at top of graphic LRIP-11 starts CY (Calendar Year) 2016?

We started LRIPing by building aircraft that we thought might be defective. Now that we are building known defective aircraft, why don't we stop for a few years and resolve the problem?

Stopping production is unproductive. However reducing numbers of LRIP aircraft is productive in the circumstances.

hcobb wrote:

We started LRIPing by building aircraft that we thought might be defective. Now that we are building known defective aircraft, why don't we stop for a few years and resolve the problem?

Basically the way the numbers stack up is that it's cheaper to build aircraft that will need reworking later than to rework legacy kit to keep it flying while F35 is perfected.

It's certainly more cost effective,

Ian

Basically the way the numbers stack up is that it's cheaper to build aircraft that will need reworking later than to rework legacy kit to keep it flying while F35 is perfected.

It's certainly more cost effective,

Ian[/quote]

Stobiwan -- Do you have any numbers or report references that reflect this? I'm not debating your correctness - you probably are--. I just haven't seen those numbers that show this. Mostly I have heard stong terms like "We will not buy anymore iron fighters!"(meaning 4.xG). Its a challenge because the -35 testing is still at about the 1/5 stage so the full extent of potential problems hasn't been exposed yet. Unless the program directors feel that the really hard (from a rework viewpoint) structural unknowns have been significantly addressed.

FYI, remaining LRIP F-35A units will unfortunately likely cost > $180m per bird (total procurement unit cost) after all final block III retrofits are completed (compared to about $90m today for F-18E Total procurement cost). Eventual block IV retrofits will of course cost extra. LRIP 11 aircraft delivered by end of 2018 or early 2019 could achieve IOC as early as end of 2019. Time to start preparing and budgeting for an unplanned credible F-16 MLU for at least some units... IMHO. Perhaps AESA and similar updates conceived for possible USAF F-16 SLEP?

geogen wrote:

FYI, remaining LRIP F-35A units will unfortunately likely cost > $180m per bird (total procurement unit cost) after all final block III retrofits are completed (compared to about $90m today for F-18E Total procurement cost). Eventual block IV retrofits will of course cost extra. LRIP 11 aircraft delivered by end of 2018 or early 2019 could achieve IOC as early as end of 2019. Time to start preparing and budgeting for an unplanned credible F-16 MLU for at least some units... IMHO. Perhaps AESA and similar updates conceived for possible USAF F-16 SLEP?

Program Acquisition Unit Cost and Average Procurement Unit Cost are costs in a specific US situation. As explained in the same last letter, these figures are not useful in a Dutch situation.

Unit cost/Stuksprijs
Quote (google translation): This chapter describes the current (2010) Program Acquisition Unit Cost and Average Procurement Unit Cost mentioned.
As set put in the letter of July 5 2007 (26 488 Papers, no. 60), these parameters are not useful for Netherlands since the calculation is based on three types of devices and
because the cost of development and related infrastructure be included.

In the annual report for 2010 F-16 replacement is overview of the basic unit price for the average Dutch input sequence.
It is also the historical price movements recorded. after the publication of the annual report in March 2011 in the letter of July 1, 2011 the reported average basic unit price of € 60.4 million,
according to the information on which the report is based SAR (Letter 26 488, No. 275).

Quote: For the development of the F-35 according to the report an increase of $ 3.2 billion ($ 2002 base year). Netherlands makes a fixed contribution of $800 million to develop the F-35.
The cost overrun results therefore not a higher Dutch contribution.

Till June 1, 2012, a new letter expected, when more and new US figures are known, €60.4 million per F35’s (July 1, 2011) will be used (€60.4 million at midrate: $1 = €0.83).

You are right about the F16’s, €300 million will be needed for the airframe and etc. (New wings, strengthening airframe, new air conditioning, new barrels etc.)

But this amount concerns the F16 MLU updates included (MLU updates, European partners).
Norway and probably Denmark as well, will fly less longer with the F16 MLU and leave the MLU partnership sooner. Belgium and the Netherlands (plus Portugal) will be left.

Don’t have the impression the F16 MLU will be updated like the US F16’s (new radars etc.).
Personal impression, a two way solution; delivered F35’s as first line jets and resuming F16’s as second line jets till all F35’s will be delivered.

The project is in it’s last phase, this means ordering by the Dutch government, in charge, or not.
It’s not a question the F35 or another jet anymore. It’s ordering the F35, or no jet at all.

When this government will not go ahead with the F35, selection and replacement of the F16 will have to start all over again. A setback by probably some five years?
As well, after an investment (+$1.5 billion) it’s hardly impossible taking such a decision.

Another problem is the Euro crisis, a lot of money will be needed saving the Euro. The Dutch are one of the stronger Euro countries (with Germany, Finland and Luxemburg).
Since last decissions no Euro country is allowed making depth's, till a certain degree.
Another problem concerns rating (P&St), it's not impossibe Euro stronger countries will be rated lower as well. That much money will be needed backing the Euro, this will or could have an impact on their ratings.

This could have an impact on the needed budget for replacement or total F35’s to be ordered.

Forum: Program and politics

Netherlands: 10 additional F35's, last LRIP series