Forum: F-35 Lightning II

This article hits hard into something that people have mentioning whispered asides for a few years now:

Quote:

It is the JSF, however, that offers the greatest long-term challenge to the European fighter aircraft manufacturers. The F-35 is one of only two fifth-generation fighters currently in existence - the F-22 Raptor being the other - and it is the only one available for foreign customers (the US Congress refuses to permit the F-22 to be exported). No other combat aircraft on the international market approaches the JSF in terms of technology, particularly in stealth and avionics (radar and other onboard sensors). It is simply in a class by itself and represents a life-or-death threat to its European competitors.

Read more: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion ... 72681.html

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The author may be a bit too optimistic re the F-35 usurping the eurojets in MMRCA.

Still, if Japan is any indication, its going to be a much tougher sell from here on for other manufacturers. Specially if it turns out that aside from its acknowledged tech superiority the jet is actually quite competitive in price.

With the Chinese expected to sell increasingly capable products at significantly lower price point and the F-35 dominating the high end at competitve pricing with Gen4+ Eurocanards, where does that leave the latter?

And thus we see the real reason why some "tame" journalists have such a problem with the F-35 program and are undoubtedly being encouraged to write overly pessimistic stories about it, hoping that white anting the F-35 program will erode it's political support and thus it's viability as an overall project...

Other manufacturers are rightly very worried about the F-35, when one honestly considers it's likely price and capability...

(Reuters) - Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) expects to build at its Fort Worth, Texas, facility the first four F-35 fighter jets to be delivered to Japan, with some component production work and final assembly to move to Japan for deliveries in 2017 and beyond (dec. 21, 2011)

Quote: Steve O'Bryan, Lockheed's vice president for F-35 business development, said the price per plane, excluding research and development spending, had already dropped 42 percent over the first four production batches, and would continue to drop in coming years as production accelerated.

Current planning projected a "unit recurring flyaway cost" of about $100 million for the eighth batch of fighter jets, measured in then year dollars, O'Bryan said. That price would drop to around $90 million for the ninth batch, and $86 million for a tenth batch, he said.

Eventually, Lockheed expects to reach an average unit cost for the plane of about $65 million.

O'Bryan said the effect of Japan's order on the projected unit costs had not yet been calculated, but it would clearly help drive costs lower. Japan's initial planes would be included in the eighth batch of fighter jets, the Pentagon office that oversees the F-35 program said in a statement on Monday.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/12/2 ... 8620111221

The last I'd heard there are going to be 9 LRIPs.. anyone know differently?

Flight Global Graphic 20 Dec 2011 online edition:

http://www.emagazine.flightinternationa ... 516,544517

That's assuming the US Congress doesn't bankrupt the USA before then.

stereospace wrote:

That's assuming the US Congress doesn't bankrupt the USA before then.

Sad but true. I can't even believe the idiocy that occurs with supposed 'statesmen'.

The market is splitting into two parts:

High end customers who can afford and demand 5th gen fighters

and

Low end customers who beg for refab used 4th gen fighters.

Which of those two markets do the Eurocanards sell into?

Europa fighters will, and can never be competitive.
First they are older technology; On par with a late block F-16.
Secondly Europe has no fighter industry.
You have France and you have the UK. Each with some partners and competing each other out of the sky. There is NO European Fighter.
Costs?
Well, compare unit cost for a 100 fighters to unit cost for some 4.000 fighters.

Any country would by long and by far prefer to buy F-16's over any of this competition.
Development? The UK model being multirole by 2018?? Hello, need some sand????

The Griphen? Who buys paper airplanes?? There is no Griphen N/G flying.

Any one wanting proven technology and with his head on his body, will choose an F-16 over anything around.

Or an F-18 or an F-15, but certainly no Eropean plane.

PS, I am European, but I have my eyes open.

hcobb wrote:

The market is splitting into two parts:

High end customers who can afford and demand 5th gen fighters

and

Low end customers who beg for refab used 4th gen fighters.

Which of those two markets do the Eurocanards sell into?

Umm, well, none really. The hottest market right now is in the middle east, which has capital and demand, and long standing ties with the US industry, forged through war and sealed meeting rooms. They want the latest, and without much objection from Israel or instability worries, the closer Iran gets to a nuclear weapon, the more willing and eager the Arabs will be to seek continual modernization of their air defense forces into the next logical progression. Saudi Arabia is in discussion with Pakistan to buy nuclear weapons if and when the need for MAD arises. So money is not an issue over survival. It makes sense to buy American, we're there and will be the first ones on the scene, interoperability is crucial with limited resourced and the kind of realities a conflict there would incur.

The deal in Kuwait with France is hanging on by a life thread, if there is more than words and paper there. The other Gulf countries, and now Egypt, which will face scrutiny in the US market, could offer some sort of short or mid term hedge, life support, but we shall see.

Iraq will take some time, and could branch out, but it can't help the Eurocanards as it stands now anyway.

Latin America is on the lower end of the spending spectrum, but European powers have a colonial image in the Western Hemisphere, and there is not enough influence or demand to change those conditions. I will be a little surprised if Europe does end up winning the Brazil tender.

Africa, well, yeah. Nothing really going on here, with the exception of South Africa, and few Maghreb countries, there is no force or industry to speak of that might be of significance.

Asia, again, it's more of the same, strategically speaking, the US is the only one who maintains a presence and thus it is not surprising that most of the forces in the region operate US hardware. The Philippines have asked for a squadron of 12 second hand F-16s from the US, support and training are assumed. Some months ago, a pair of their Broncos were ambushed by Mig-29s well within Philippine airspace in one of their lower and western archipelagos. The OV-10 pilots tried valiantly to turn the tables but the Migs just ran circles around them. This humiliation seems to not have been forgotten.

The South China sea nations and those of the Indian ocean and PAC RIM areas have much more than dollar amounts and availability to think about. Which purchase makes a bigger statement, that Vietnam bought F-16s from the US, or Rafales from France? Hypothetically speaking.

Unfortunately for the Europeans, they must save themselves, and in this time of shrinking budgets and austerity, it's a bleak picture.

[quote="PhillyGuy"]

hcobb wrote:

Unfortunately for the Europeans, they must save themselves, and in this time of shrinking budgets and austerity, it's a bleak picture.

Unfortunately for the Americans, we are in the same situation and must save ourselves as well. Another request for a debt increase limit of $1.2 trillion today. My goodness, the insanity has to stop. I fully support the F-35, I just do not support the additional debt. The very fighter that we need for force projection against what potential foe? China, which to a certain degree, lends us the money to build the plane. Oh the irony. Sounds like the Chinese are doin a little Reaganistic policy to the USA.

Really, we most all support a strong armed forces, but this money guzzling fed govt will be the end of the US as we know it. If priorities are not made that bind the Fed govt to Constitutional laws and purpose, several hundred F-35's are not going to save us from ourselves. If projections continue on their present course, we can only hope for nuclear deterrance such as the Russians.

[quote="Orangeburst"][quote="PhillyGuy"][quote="hcobb"] Unfortunately for the Europeans, they must save themselves, and in this time of shrinking budgets and austerity, itAmen to that, these idiots running this country are the downfall of it. Why not try to sell off some of that MASSIVE oil reserve I keep hearing about.

One area of advantage for Euro military aircraft sales may be those countries that are seeking to develop their own fighter industry. On the surface it appears as if US has government really does restrict against the leaking of secret sauce to potential export partners. This may have played no small role in India's recent decision to boot both US contestants.
It is far more cost effective to pay 20 or even 30 million more per article and get billion dollar research secrets handed to you than to learn by trial and error how to do that research yourself.

And what do you get the secrets to building exactly?

Why have the Japanese stopped F-2 production, whatever happened to the AIDC F-CK-1 Ching-kuo, etc?

Taking the time to make a copy of something that has already fallen behind does what for you exactly?

Sounds like a great way to spend money without actually defending your country.

Now building commercial aircraft for export is a great reason to tie into the Boeing supply chain.

Forum: F-35 Lightning II

Europe loses out in Asian arms market