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aaam
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Posted: Jan 31, 2012 - 07:21 PM
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tacf-x wrote:
But, but...Boeing supports evolutionary concepts over revolutionary!
In all seriousness we know almost as a fact that the F-32 would have faced more problems in development and might have been cancelled already considering the issues Boeing had getting the thing to take off vertically despite stripping and modding the inlet and the like.
Ironically, Boeing was originally not supposed to be one of the finalists. The Gov't selected Lockheed (who had to redesign their a/c just had they had to do with the YF-22) and MDD. The latter originally proposed a lift fan powered by gas bled from the main engine (the other DARPA concept), but decided they'd have better results from a lift engine.
Boeing said, "Hey wait a minute! Our concept offers more performance yet lower risk than that, and we'll build the thing ourselves with our own money if you don't let us in". The Gov't never wants that to happen, so they re-evaluated and the final selection was Lockheed and Boeing. This resulted in MDD realizing they could not longer survive on their own and were open to being eaten by Boeing.
The JAST/JSF competition was the only time Boeing ever lit an afterburner or built a plane designed to go beyond the Mach. It didn't work out well for them, they just didn't have the experience. Whether the -32 would have had more problems in development is really moot. The decision wasn't even close. As was pointed out at the time, for Boeing to win, Lockheed would have to fail, and fail spectacularly. That didn't happen.
This is a bit off-topic, though. Here's a question related to this topic. People here and elsewhere say that the Northrop/MDD design would have been riskier than the Lockheed/Boeing one. Without directly trying to restart the whole which one was "better" dance, given that the EMD/production F-23 would not have had changes so extensive, in what ways was it riskier? I've heard that there were concerns that it was thought that they might have problems on the large one piece section, but If I recall, Northrop/MDD built that part on production tooling for the dem/val to allay that concern.
As I said, one of the great "what-ifs" of "what might have been"... |
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Roscoe
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Posted: Feb 05, 2012 - 09:21 PM
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Elite 1K

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aaam wrote:
Roscoe wrote:
southernphantom wrote:
That_Engine_Guy wrote:
Obviously not or it would have won!?
TEG
Wrong, politics supersedes reality.
You've never been on a source selection team, have you? Aircraft win on technical merit, but that merit usually involves a lot more than just raw performance. Cost and manufacturing capability are just as critical.
Folks who claim Lockheed won because of politics are frankly sore losers...
First, unlike most other situations, USAF never said it would select on performance, cost, risk, etc. In fact, it never actually said what it would select on except that it would be at the discretion of the Secretary of the Air Force.
OK, I need to see documentation for this claim. Having been acquisition trained and having sat on or assisted multiple source selection boards, this assertion smacks of pure fantasy. No source selection in modern times has ever been at "discretion of the Secretary of the Air Force" or any similar position. All Requests for Proposals (RFP) go out with clear grading and selection criteria (except the original tanker RFP which didn't anticipate some of the offerings that would be presented and the Source selection team screwed up by giving extra credit to EADS/NG for items that they separately told Boeing that had no interest in).
The problem is that this competition had classified requirements and therefore the data was not releasable. Leads to a lot of speculation (to include most of the "leaks" that folks point back to) but no one here talking knows and no one here that knows is talking because they can't. |
_________________ Roscoe
<b>"It's time to get medieval, I'm goin' in for guns"</b> - <i>Dos Gringos</i>
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aaam
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Posted: Feb 07, 2012 - 04:56 AM
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Senior member

Joined: Aug 21, 2010 - 11:52 PM
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Roscoe wrote:
aaam wrote:
Roscoe wrote:
southernphantom wrote:
That_Engine_Guy wrote:
Obviously not or it would have won!?
TEG
Wrong, politics supersedes reality.
You've never been on a source selection team, have you? Aircraft win on technical merit, but that merit usually involves a lot more than just raw performance. Cost and manufacturing capability are just as critical.
Folks who claim Lockheed won because of politics are frankly sore losers...
First, unlike most other situations, USAF never said it would select on performance, cost, risk, etc. In fact, it never actually said what it would select on except that it would be at the discretion of the Secretary of the Air Force.
OK, I need to see documentation for this claim. Having been acquisition trained and having sat on or assisted multiple source selection boards, this assertion smacks of pure fantasy. No source selection in modern times has ever been at "discretion of the Secretary of the Air Force" or any similar position. All Requests for Proposals (RFP) go out with clear grading and selection criteria (except the original tanker RFP which didn't anticipate some of the offerings that would be presented and the Source selection team screwed up by giving extra credit to EADS/NG for items that they separately told Boeing that had no interest in).
The problem is that this competition had classified requirements and therefore the data was not releasable. Leads to a lot of speculation (to include most of the "leaks" that folks point back to) but no one here talking knows and no one here that knows is talking because they can't.
Fair enough.
Keep in mind, there never has before or since been a competition/selection like the ATF. I doubt if any company today would be willing to participate in such a one. Consider, though, the environment at the time...few programs coming up, basically this one and the ATA (flying Dorito) The prize as it appeared then was spectacular: 791 or more for USAF. 500 for USN. Significant export orders down the road, and probably domination of the fighter market in the West for decades to come. Again, as it appeared then. That's why everyone went for it.
Now, you can find contemporary accounts of the competition as I described, including AF's own descriptions at the time. For much of the following decade you can find "post game analysis" in many of the most respected publications, all of which saying basically the same thing and in significant detail, especially about the "traffic lights". I refer you to Aviation Week, Flight International, World Air Power Journal, Interavia, Armed Forces Journal, et al. There are a number of distinguished individuals throughout this field that are all pretty much describe the competition the same way.
Yes, there were classified parts of the requirements. For example the development of the reduced fin AIM-120C was classified, so the public RFP referred to a requirement to carry a certain number of AIM-120As, while the real requirement was to carry a larger number of AIM-120Cs. There are always classified requirements on a program like this. What is the actual RCS requirement for the F-35? The minimum acceptable radar range? You don't need to know these specifics to be able to know why or to disclose why a certain proposal was chosen.
What made this competition unique was that it was a Dem?Val, not a flyoff. I've covered some of that elsewhere. One thing that points to the uniqueness of this competition is that here we are over 20 years later and we still don't have a really clear idea of how Lockheed/Boeing beat Northrop/MDD.
That's unique. It was disclosed fairly soon why the F8U-3 lost out to the F4H. (The former accelerated better and was more agile, but the latter could accommodate a bigger radar, was two crew, could carry more armament, was more versatile and probably came aboard the boat better). The A-9 was a better and more accurate gun platform, but the A-10 was more survivable, easier to repair and shrouded its engines better. We know why the F-16 beat the F-17 and where it was better. In the FX competition, the North American proposal offered the most potential performance, but the McDonnell proposal could also exceed the requirements and was considered less risky technically. We know how Lockheed won the CX competition as well AAFSS. In VFX, only MDD and Grumman could meet the requirements, but MDD just met them while Grumman's proposal significantly exceeded them, albeit at higher cost. We know where there X-35 beat the X-32, and it wasn't just looks. Heck, we know how the Blackbird beat the Kingfish!
Then there's ATF. Not a lot of detail there. Secretary Rice said neither aircraft was more maneuverable or more stealthy. Well, watch what the F-22 can do low and slow, and that seems a curious statement. Take a look at the exhaust plume from the YF-23 compared to the YF-22 and that seems a curious statement. The Secretary said that Lockheed/Boeing documented their proposal better. That was MDD's area and MDD admitted that they had fallen down on that area. Tom Gunn, one of the senior marketers involved with the proposal, attributes the loss to that, and to MDD having a too arrogant former Air Force General as their PM who managed to tick off a lot of people in the customer team. Aside from that, there's not that much info about the relative performance and costs of the two aircraft, even after all this time. The "leaks" and analysis regarding the two aircraft have been remarkably consistent, but there's never been an official statement on that--again, unique.
This is not saying that there was cheating, or something to hide. AF said right up front that the purpose of the prototypes was to validate the bidders' claims for their aircraft, and once that was accomplished, it was up to the Secretary of the AF to select the winner according to whatever criteria he saw fit. There was nothing hidden about it. There wasn't a hint of a protest because there was nothing to protest. They agreed to that when they made their proposal/bid.
Personally, from what I've been able to divine over the years, I think the YF-23 was the better plane. It seemed to offer more performance and potential and was closer to what USAF claimed they were looking for in their general pronouncements prior to Dem/Val---but that's just me. I don't think it cruised at 200,000 feet at M8 after a vertical takeoff armed with two 16" naval cannons and Photon Torpedoes. That doesn't mean the YF-22 design was bad. If it was, we'd know it by now, and I doubt if Secretary Rice would have picked it. Whatever criteria the AF used to pick it, be it cost, documentation, industrial policy or whatever was valid and in compliance with the solicitation. AF got one heck of an airplane, just not enough of them. |
Last edited by aaam on Feb 07, 2012 - 08:03 PM; edited 1 time in total
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thebigfish
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Posted: Feb 07, 2012 - 10:32 AM
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Joined: Dec 22, 2011 - 12:15 PM
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Very interesting forum this one, guys. One thought that comes up could the F23 be "resurrected" in some form as a competitor by some interested company. I doubt very much since the apparent lack of potential buyers since quite a few seem wedded to the F35. But in the international market if it can be seen as superior to legacy planes could it be possible?
Could the F23 be marketed as a "simple plane" with VLO, simple avionics etc with POTENTIAL for growth? So get the true low cost up front but then buyers have the option to upgrade as they want over time?
Just a way out there thought. |
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aaam
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Posted: Feb 07, 2012 - 08:09 PM
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Joined: Aug 21, 2010 - 11:52 PM
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thebigfish wrote:
Very interesting forum this one, guys. One thought that comes up could the F23 be "resurrected" in some form as a competitor by some interested company. I doubt very much since the apparent lack of potential buyers since quite a few seem wedded to the F35. But in the international market if it can be seen as superior to legacy planes could it be possible?
Could the F23 be marketed as a "simple plane" with VLO, simple avionics etc with POTENTIAL for growth? So get the true low cost up front but then buyers have the option to upgrade as they want over time?
Just a way out there thought.
Not a prayer. The tooling likely no longer exists. It would cost a gazillion bucks to restart it and bring it to production readiness. It would not be a "simple plane", by its very nature. There's virtually no market. The only organizations that would have a need for sufficient numbers of them to make the idea viable either already have or are developing their own.
Lastly, the US Government owns either all or a good portion of the design. They are simply not gong to let such a thing happen. |
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thebigfish
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Posted: Feb 08, 2012 - 02:49 AM
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aaam, Understand what you say and agree. So it sounds like essentially competition in the fighter market is now becoming non-existent. So the force of capitalism (competition) which the western world used to drive improvements in standards of living is no longer applicable! That is an interesting thought and potentially troubling.
I can see some logic in that having one source of defense technology so it it some what controlled. Yet however as the latest speculation about the Chinese hacking of the F35 shows in this age it may be unavoidable that this technology gets out. Having competitors such as a resurrected F23 or such like could reinvigorate the industry.
It will never get to the point where one plane suits all, there will always be several designs out there so why not do something that promotes proposals with out losing too much of the simplified supply chain targeted by Defense. (if at all possible) |
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aaam
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Posted: Feb 08, 2012 - 03:54 AM
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Joined: Aug 21, 2010 - 11:52 PM
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thebigfish wrote:
aaam, Understand what you say and agree. So it sounds like essentially competition in the fighter market is now becoming non-existent. So the force of capitalism (competition) which the western world used to drive improvements in standards of living is no longer applicable! That is an interesting thought and potentially troubling.
I can see some logic in that having one source of defense technology so it it some what controlled. Yet however as the latest speculation about the Chinese hacking of the F35 shows in this age it may be unavoidable that this technology gets out. Having competitors such as a resurrected F23 or such like could reinvigorate the industry.
It will never get to the point where one plane suits all, there will always be several designs out there so why not do something that promotes proposals with out losing too much of the simplified supply chain targeted by Defense. (if at all possible)
It's not so much that it's non-existent. It's that even though competitive prototypes have always resulted in better planes with lower costs, it's that governments are not willing for whatever reason, be it the initial up front costs and they are not willing to wait for the back end savings or simply don't want to have to make a decision for which they can be criticized, to do this anymore.
There is also the hubris that feels we know so much our computers and simulations can answer everything for us. For example, despite all the press, the F-35 is not really having any more problems than a normal development program. What happened though was that we felt our models and simulations told us so much we could afford to develop at a glacial pace and have a large amount of production concurrent with the development and testing, because we wouldn't have many problems since our sophisticated models would answer the questions for us and there'd be no surprises. It's coming back to bite us. We should have built a lot more development aircraft much faster and then started production further down the road. But that also means more up front money although you save overall. Competition and its benefits are why I was such an advocate of the F136 alternate engine for the engine (you can find a lot more about this issue elsewhere on the forum).
To return to the question at hand, it's simply not economically feasible to resurrect the F-23 now, 20 years later. It's too late for competition on that front. |
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thebigfish
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Posted: Feb 08, 2012 - 09:37 AM
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| Okay sure 20 years has passed for the F23, so not the F23 but something else? Have the F136 in another airframe? And it does not have to be Super VLO just something to put LM in a different frame of mind. Again I know it will not happen. But gut feel, says it is wrong the way things are now. Anyway enough on this . Thanks aaam for your thoughts.. |
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aaam
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Posted: Feb 10, 2012 - 04:43 AM
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thebigfish wrote:
Okay sure 20 years has passed for the F23, so not the F23 but something else? Have the F136 in another airframe? And it does not have to be Super VLO just something to put LM in a different frame of mind. Again I know it will not happen. But gut feel, says it is wrong the way things are now. Anyway enough on this . Thanks aaam for your thoughts..
Don't want to go into F135/F136 here, there's another topic for that. But just for informational purposes as it relates to competition, which also applies to a resurrected F-23...
F136 was designed specifically for the F-35. Right now, there's no other airframe that needs an engine like that, although had it continued on who know what may have happened. In any case, like the F-23, the US gov't owns the design because they paid for the R&D. For whatever reason (not going there in this topic), the gov't decided it didn't want any competition for the F135. So it would not allow GE/Rolls to complete development even using their own money, in fact it wouldn't even allow them access to the engines and test equipment they had already built.
Again, not revisiting F135 vs. F136 here, just using a current example of how things have gotten so much more complicated nowadays. |
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ericchase88
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Posted: Feb 22, 2013 - 09:14 AM
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aaam wrote:
The YF-22-YF-23 competition remains controversial today, and will probably go on forever. Part of the reason I think it remains so is because it was unique in the history of aircraft selections, so much remains unknown and what little has leaked out seems puzzling.
First, unlike most other situations, USAF never said it would select on performance, cost, risk, etc. In fact, it never actually said what it would select on except that it would be at the discretion of the Secretary of the Air Force. What little bit that came out before the air demonstrations was somewhat confusing, given the outcome. Maneuverability had to be as good as the F-16’s best, and both aircraft exceeded the requirement, but thanks to its thrust vectoring, the YF-22 was better at the left edge of the envelope. It would said that extra credit would not be given for exceeding the requirement, but some eyebrows were raised when maneuverability was one of the few things mentioned later in the limited info given out, and that’s part of the basis for the questions over the years. USAF had said that its main concerns were stealth, speed and range/payload and in those areas it was said that the performance of the Northrop/MDD plane was better. Some have said that except for maneuverability in the areas where thrust vectoring was relevant, the YF-23 was better in almost everything else. Sometimes much better, sometimes only somewhat better. It was generally acknowledged that it was definitely stealthier, especially in IR. It was definitely faster. In fact, to this day, the supercruise speed of the YF-23 with YF120 engines remains classified.
As an aside, thrust vectoring does not make you turn tighter, it lets you point the nose independently of the direction of flight better. This is particualry useful on the F-22 as it seems it’ll be another five years before it can use AIM-9X in full High Off Boresight Mode.
The way the competition was run, was that there were a number of requirements. The purpose of the flights was to demonstrate how well the teams could validate their predictions and meet the requirements. A “stoplight” was assigned to each criterion: Red for couldn’t meet. Yellow for met, but with concerns. Green for fully met with no concerns and supposedly for some criteria there was a Blue stoplight for significantly exceeds or special merit in that particular category. The “lights” were not cumulative, and no points were assigned. The aircraft were not to be compared with each other and the evaluation teams were not to compare notes. No one was to fly both aircraft to compare handling. In fact, the only person to ever fly both was Paul Metz (after the ATF competition he left Northrop and went to work for Lockheed) and he has never compared the two. The teams were to make no recommendations to the Secretary, simply report. This meant he was free to use whatever criteria he wanted to make the decision, and the decision has never been fully explained. There was some unofficial talk about “producability”, with some concern regarding Northrop being able to produce certain large scale single piece assemblies. The fact that they had two aircraft sitting there that had done it, plus that they were doing the same for the B-2 was not considered sufficient. Documentation for the YF-23 to F-23 transition program was poorer, MDD afterwards admitted it and we all know that to the gov’t paper is everything. In addition, it was mentioned that the AF was concerned about the Northrop management plan. There will be a slight pause here for the chuckles to die down regarding the irony of the Government passing judgment on anyone else’s management plan.
Regarding the weapons bay layout, we can’t really say which layout was “better”. Northrop didn’t put a launcher in its prototypes. USAF did express some concern regarding the fact that Northrop’s launcher design reportedly used a single arm mechanism, which could end up restricting its ability to launch should it fail or be damaged, and Northrop planned to change it on the production model. On the other hand, the YF-23’s weapons bay was quite large, sometimes described as being like that of a B-25. Also, it could carry two AIM-9s on the main weapons bay doors. One thing Northrop did say was that their design was not a trapeze.
We do know a bit regarding changes for the proposed EMD and production versions. There would be less modification needed than for the YF—F-22. The housings for the thrust reversers would naturally be removed. The intakes were to be revised, incorporating a half conical centerbody. The IR absorbing tiles at the exhaust always had been scheduled to be replaced with different material, but Northrop wasn’t going to spend the money for that development unless they got the contract, so the tiles were an expedient for the YFs. The aircraft was also going to have some frames added, possibly for more fuel, but primarily to allow all the length needed to mount the full forward weapons bay for two AIM-9s. I do not know if the launch rails provision on the main weapons bay doors would be retained, I suspect yes. As fortuitous fallout, the increased fineness ratio and cleanup might have made the production version even faster.
Anyway, the decision remains a topic for friendly arguments today. The fact that it wasn’t the usual competition on performance and/or cost keeps the pot simmering, and the lack of much detail on just how the YF-22 was selected adds to that. And, the fact that Northrop was ready to go months before Lockheed was but was told by USAF not to fly, even using their own money until Lockheed was ready didn’t help (Northrop got paid to keep the planes ready and to keep their team together, BTW).
Personally, I think the YF-23 was the better performing design and had the most potential, but what do I know? In any case, with two such excellent designs to work with, USAF couldn’t lose.
Actually, from what I read, the EMD F-23 has higher fineness ratio because its longer but its volume distribution is also poorer because of the redesigned weapon bays. It's not clear if the F-23 is more or less draggy than the YF-23. |
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geogen
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Posted: Feb 22, 2013 - 01:21 PM
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Regardless... one must say, that was a truly epic and welcomed comment made here on this forum by AAAM, regardless of what one feels about the YF-22 vs YF-23 contest. Thanks for that input.
That being said... if one could only look forward to a more applicable and prudent YFB-22 vs YFB-23 contest within the next couple years??  |
_________________ The Super-Viper has not yet begun to concede.
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