Forum: F-35 Lightning II

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-1 ... ation.html

Rolling Eyes

Andy

F-16.net Sponsor

Will never happen. Will the program be cut? Yes, I've always known that. But at this point the F-35 is IT unless both houses of congress decide that we can live with 40 year old F-15s and 30 year old F-16s until their wings fall off. I can certainly envision a world in which the planned buy of airframes is cut in half, and that the entire combined air forces of the US are cut in half.

They need to stop replacing small exhaust pipes with ever larger ones. The force has to have sustainability. Fiscal responsibility.

Panetta is an Obama appointee. Right now, the Obama administration is in 'get reelected at any cost' mode. They're looking for somewhere to get money to buy votes with new entitlement proposals. He'll be gone a year from now. What the HASC and SASC recommends is more important and even then there will be a huge, drawn out argument. So far, he's one guy running his mouth.

As I said in another thread " The Axe Man Cometh". What will really be interesting is, the political side of this predicament that they have irresponsibly spent themselves into. Their intent was to force the issue of socialism at the expense of capitalism and they now have painted themselves into their corner. If the entitlement programs are not abolished and defense put back on a solid financial budget, then these politicians will be "recalled" (as in expendable) and our national defense will ultimately prevail. We the people who work and pay taxes will determine where our money is used, mine will be for the F-35 program, each and every airplane; no cuts. Smile

It's not just a matter of one politician or bureaucrat deciding to cancel the F-35. It's a matter of automatic cuts taking place after a November 23 deadline unless the super-committee can agree on which programs to cut in favor of others. That failing, every program will receive an indiscriminate cut of around 23%, which is a problem because building military systems isn't like trading commodities. For example, you can't build 3/4 of a warship and expect 3/4 capability, and you can't cut a fighter development program by 1/4 and expect 3/4 of the planes in 1/4 more amount of time.

And BTW, this isn't just something that is being talked about; it will happen in 8 days unless there is a breakthrough. The cuts are already in written law (agreed to by both parties) and will take effect.

Even so, that's a whole lot different than terminating the program.

stereospace wrote:

Even so, that's a whole lot different than terminating the program.

You're still not getting it. It's not a matter of cutting the Pentagon's budget by 1/4, and then leaving it up to the DoD to decide what to chop. These mandatory cuts are across the board and will render every big-ticket program untenable come FY2013. Panetta will be forced to cancel the F-35 along with other programs, whether he wants to or not. He has been warning Congress about the consequences of failure (by the super-committee) for weeks.

Everyone needs to stop viewing this as another F-22 situation. That cancellation was motivated by Gate's personal conflicts and Obama's politics. What's happening now is much more serious.

What is the annual size of the US DoD Budget?

What is the size of the budget cut that could be mandated?

What about the economical factor and the impact on the US aviation industry?
Possible foreign sales may be a 1000-1500 F35’s is a large amount of money and employment.
One can expect this will harm the US aviation industry. Suppose most level partners will order in that case Rafale or Typhoon, other buyers possibly also Russian jets.

luke_sandoz wrote:

What is the annual size of the US DoD Budget?

What is the size of the budget cut that could be mandated?

Neither one matters. If it was simply a 23% cut to the Pentagon's budget, the DoD could shuffle money around to where it's needed most; but "sequestration" means that every major program will bet cut the same, no matter what its priority is, with catastrophic results for all the large projects.

Quote:

Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., said he knows the panel is under great pressure to get a deal done to chop $1.2 trillion from the 10-year budget, but he believes its members can succeed by Nov. 23, the day before Thanksgiving.

"I believe they will reach an agreement by the deadline," Cantor told reporters.

The Super Committee is stuck on the trade-off between revenue increases and spending cuts. If it fails to reach a deal, the law that it is operating under requires automatic cuts, called "sequestration," to take effect. That would entail chopping $600 billion from the defense spending budget and another $600 billion from the entitlement programs Medicare and Medicaid.

"I don't think the sequester will be applicable. I'm confident they will get a deal," Cantor said.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/11 ... z1doav29Sr

About 1/3rd of the budget is personnel which can't be cut without firing people. The two other main parts of the budget are operations (and maintenance) and procurement followed by R&D. Operations and maintenance can only be cut so far. Procurement and R&D are the two biggest parts of the budget that can be drastically cut and still maintain and operate the current force at the expense of the future force. So if the sequestration nightmare is triggered procurement will be gutted. The F-35, among hundreds of others, will be put on hold while even more programs are simply totally canceled.

Last edited by maus92 on Nov 16, 2011 - 12:18 AM; edited 1 time in total

If the Super Committee comes to agreement, one of the terms of the agreement might be the cancellation of the F-35 anyway, although the earlier Simpson-Bolwes commission recommended cutting the total buy by half, and selectively modernizing existing airframes. The recent announcement of F-15/16 upgrades, and buying former British Harriers, along with continuing purchases of new F-18's might be a reflection / realization of the inevitable.

lb wrote:

The F-35, among hundreds of others, will be put on hold while even more programs are simply totally canceled.

That raises the question of whether the F-35 program is simply too big to put on hold. Idling it may still not save the required 23%; indeed, it may cost more in the short term than continuation or cancellation.

Forum: F-35 Lightning II

US Defence Secretary - F-35 may be cancelled.