Forum: Modern Military Aircraft

It is my personal assessment that Boeing has an F-15 pipeline issue in their focus. Yes, there are *potential* near-term F-15 airframe orders which could transition ultimately into the F-15SE production, but if no such near-term 'interim' F-15 orders are indeed exectured, then could the entire F-15SE concept be in trouble?

Maybe if the final assembly line was transferred to say, Korea it could mitigate some of the 'interim' procurement gaps and line closures, if any and more reliably enable the sustainment of the F-15 class going forward. But if not the case, and if no immediate 'stopgap' orders are placed for F-15s, then is it possible for said *potential* future orders to be in jeopardy?

I'd propose then, an hypothetical introductory F-15SE block strategy similar to say how the multi-tranche EF Typhoon class or F-35 block program was planned. Basically, start now with an entry level airframe, simply to kick-start the initial program and then continue development and upgrades accordingly as they mature. Perhaps even an interim order of 6-10 'bridge' jets either as 'Leased' USAF attrition airframes or a combination of USAF, RSAF, Royal Saudi AF, or ROKAF 'attrition orders could be sufficient to continue the line in case other potential future orders were delayed?

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How should the transfer of the production line buy any time at all? If there are no new orders there would be no need or does your scenario envisage SK buying F-15SE for its FX-3 requirement and Boeing transfering the assembly line with KAI building the SE on its own and for potential additional customers? There are rumours that the Saudi contract for the F-15SA is already signed and this would buy Boeing some years anyway.

Some variations of both your comments could perhaps be what I was contemplating with specific regards to KAI taking over eventual assembly. Smile

Thanks for your input always, scorp.

Indeed, the F-15SA would of course be key in any relatively smooth continuation of assembly operations, so we'll have to wait and see on that point.

My main consideration was to ponder a contingency back up plan in order to best bridge any potential near-term gap and thus mitigate possible future production set-backs.

I have also heard the many rumors about the F-15SA order already being a done deal, they are just waiting on an appropriate time for the announcement. This would keep the production line going until 2018-2019 with around 15 airframes a year.

However the last SG is being delivered by the end of this year and the last F-15K delivery is set for April next year. If delivery's are not set until 2014, what is the line going to do for that year of no production? The line was temp shut down in 2001 while the last ten USAF Eagles awaited funding so maybe a year long production break could happen again?

Boeing's flight test hanger is big but I don't see them going right into production next year and just holding the aircraft in St. Louis until delivery time.

In any case, Boeing seems pretty confident the production line will suffice until the next decade.. certainly a possibility the Silent Eagle will happen.

geogen wrote:

Some variations of both your comments could perhaps be what I was contemplating with specific regards to KAI taking over eventual assembly. Smile

Thanks for your input always, scorp.

Indeed, the F-15SA would of course be key in any relatively smooth continuation of assembly operations, so we'll have to wait and see on that point.

My main consideration was to ponder a contingency back up plan in order to best bridge any potential near-term gap and thus mitigate possible future production set-backs.

One of the big problems is that the current operators might not be willing to buy additional aircraft to keep the line running for Boeing. The USAF has no interest in additional F-15s as it would eat into an already tighter and tighter budget. SK won't place some orders just in case either, but as said the SA deal could be through already which will keep the line running until 2015+. SK is a potential buyer but it somewhat looks like they might go the F-35 route. Typhoon has little chances in SK, increasing those of the F-15SE.

131stfwfan's question is a good one, with the current orders being completed next year there will be a gap. But I'm certain we'll learn more in the not to distant future.

Yeah, thanks for the informative reply 131stfan...

I guess on that particular point, my gut was trying sense whether any 'attrition-justified' stopgap order could be placed, even if something low as in a 6-8 jet order, just to keep the line going seamlessly in the near-term? Maybe you guys are correct and the SA deal will go through on an "American jobs" basis if anything else (if SA is still interested in the acquisition) when the timing is right, but perhaps a small short-term transition deal would be optimal nonetheless?

Regardless, I'd still contemplate that Boeing consider - if not already - some sort of phased 'block' F-15SE marketing plan as a fully mature, final product might still be some years off. Why not introduce and offer an entry level block 1 SE model, which could be offered sooner keeping the line in operation, yet be fully retrofitted to a later block config per customers requirements later down the road?

geogen wrote:

It is my personal assessment that Boeing has an F-15 pipeline issue in their focus. Yes, there are *potential* near-term F-15 airframe orders which could transition ultimately into the F-15SE production, but if no such near-term 'interim' F-15 orders are indeed exectured, then could the entire F-15SE concept be in trouble?

Maybe if the final assembly line was transferred to say, Korea it could mitigate some of the 'interim' procurement gaps and line closures, if any and more reliably enable the sustainment of the F-15 class going forward. But if not the case, and if no immediate 'stopgap' orders are placed for F-15s, then is it possible for said *potential* future orders to be in jeopardy?

I'd propose then, an hypothetical introductory F-15SE block strategy similar to say how the multi-tranche EF Typhoon class or F-35 block program was planned. Basically, start now with an entry level airframe, simply to kick-start the initial program and then continue development and upgrades accordingly as they mature. Perhaps even an interim order of 6-10 'bridge' jets either as 'Leased' USAF attrition airframes or a combination of USAF, RSAF, Royal Saudi AF, or ROKAF 'attrition orders could be sufficient to continue the line in case other potential future orders were delayed?

How much would it cost for Korea to build an F-15 assembly line, and how soon do you think they could possibly start producing aircraft? It wouldn't make any economic sense to go to that trouble, for ~40 aircraft. There'd have to be orders of hundreds, for them to have the economies of scale necessary, for that to be feasible.

Please God, give the USAF super-SE's! The airframe worries me one heck of a lot less than the F-35.

The F-15SE will be a strong contender in South-Korea's 3rd phase F-X tender with the F-35 as its main adversary (other contenders will not stand a chance). Just my 2 cents - Boeing simply won too much in the near past with the F-15K and it can easily be a disadvantage rather than an advantage. They know this of course, that's why they signed a memorandum with KAI for producing CWB's and that's why they let KAI produce parts for the F-15K - keeping their foot in the door.
Until the 3rd phase F-X tender gets its winner, the St.Louis line will be kept busy by F-15SA's, I think that's the most probable outcome - the Saudis have the money, want to spend it and need their F-15S's to be beefed up.

It was recently announced the Saudi F-15SA deal has been delayed.. although no one really knows why. Apparently the deal was pretty much done, but the Saudi's have yet to put any money up for the new Eagles.

The final F-15K will be delivered in April... looks like a production break is going to happen.

The situation is basically a repeat of the year 2000. USAF was done buying the aircraft and the export orders were not in the books yet. USAF gave Boeing a bone to keep the line open for five years (by taking a year break and making 2-3 airframes from 02-05) and that bought time for the 60 F-15K's and 24 F-15SG's to be finalized.

Now Boeing is left waiting again...

OK, thanks for that update I did hear something along that line recently in a report and on a blog site.

It's what I was basically preparing for in the first place actually when first posting this thread -- planning for immediate contingencies to fall back on, even on a piecemeal basis and in small orders, in case the 'expected' SA order was delayed or canceled for whatever reasons.

The thinking at least was... it would seem to be important that if F-15SE was to have any viable and reasonable opportunity, that there might have been an interest to at least have even as few as 4-6x F-15E mods specially ordered in FY11 or FY12 as attrition, etc, either by an existing customer, or in a deal cut with SA to just start the US training contingent off at least, or even to cut a deal with USAF for attrition, etc... if anything to keep a year to year transitional line functioning to better the feasibility for a seamless F-15SE-lite (or delayed F-15SA) production capacity. It would seem that the last thing they'd let happen would be a full break in the line these days for even a year or two? Maybe it's easier to jump right back into a Boeing F-15E production line, than say certain other modern fighters might require. Or heck, maybe Boeing could offer to just transfer the final assembly to an Asian country e.g., if one is interested in future evolved F-15 mod procurement? Anyway, just my conjecture on this topic... thanks for the heads up, good luck to em.

You all realize F-15 (and unfortunately F-16) production WILL end at some point.

Notice F-4 Phantoms are no longer built; nor are P-38 Lightnings....

Shrug

TEG

That_Engine_Guy wrote:

Notice F-4 Phantoms are no longer built...

Shrug

TEG

Well, not BUILT per say, but definitely brought back to 'service' through Combat Archer and the 82ATS. Not the right kind (meaning replacing old old old Eagles with AUP2000+), but still being generally useful and hinting that Phantoms would be some of the first things out of the Boneyard in a dire emergency.

As for F-15 production ending, it all depends on securing more orders from the sheikhs and RoK, or the slim chance of the USAF throwing Boeing another bone and buying a few attrition replacements, actually doing something EFFECTIVE to keep several thousand jobs for once. Then again, I wonder if the next administration would clear SE's to Taiwan in place of F-35s?

Quote:

Please God, give the USAF super-SE's! The airframe worries me one heck of a lot less than the F-35.

Does the F-22 worry you? If not, the same people who built the F-22 are building the F-35. Can't you see the similarities in their airframes? What would worry me is if I had to take a F-15SE into combat instead of an F-35.

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Forum: Modern Military Aircraft

F-15SE transition: Now or never?