Forum: F-35 Lightning II

Slide The Dutchies To The Right Hand Side by Bill Sweetman at 7/11/2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFtLONl4cNc

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs/de ... d=blogDest

"The Netherlands has decided to delay and stretch out its acquisition of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. In a July 1 letter to parliament, defense minister Hans Hillen says that a revised plan, reflecting the most recent schedule changes "starts the flow of production aircraft in 2019, and lasts until 2027".

If, as is most likely, those are delivery years, they represent a three-to-four-year slip relative to the numbers in the most recent production, sustainment and follow-on development (PSFD) memorandum of understanding, which called for the Netherlands to sign contracts for nine aircraft in 2014 and ten in 2015 and subsequent years, with the final batch being ordered in 2021. (Deliveries are two years on from contract signature.)

This follows Norway's announcement that it plans to order most of its aircraft no earlier than 2016, to support 2018 deliveries and a 2019 initial operational capability (IOC). The latter date is to be confirmed, since Norway plans to declare IOC with the Block 4 configuration. Once the US has firmed up its own Block 3 IOC date (not yet declared by the US operator, but looking like 2018) the availability of Block 4 should become clearer.

The moves announced by Norway, the Netherlands and the UK in the past year have already eliminated 90 aircraft in the 2011-2016 buy years, compared with the program of record. The change is not surprising given delays to development and IOC dates: international customers can clearly benefit from delaying their orders, since according to the most recent Selected Acquisition Report, an F-35A ordered in 2018 costs $35 million less than a 2014 model.

Partner orders are important to the JSF program's plans for a steep production ramp to high rates. Under the non-binding PSFD MoU, eight international partners are expected to order 211 JSFs between now and 2016. This compares with 325 for the US and is larger than the number of F-35As that the USAF plans to buy in the same period. In 2016 alone, the partners are expected to order 86 JSFs to the US total of 108.

At the Paris air show, JSF officials said that Turkey was expected to make a commitment this year (reportedly for six aircraft) and that Italy and Australia should begin buying in 2012. What the program needs to shore up the production ramp, however, is for those customers to diverge from the example of the UK, Norway and Netherlands, which have committed to small numbers of test and training aircraft while pushing bulk deliveries to 2018 and beyond."

REFERENCE SONG: 'Pass the Dutchie' "This generation | Rules the nation "

http://www.stlyrics.com/lyrics/theweddi ... utchie.htm

Who'da thunk that Sweetman was a 'Musickal Yoof' fan? Rolling Eyes

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Nothing new on the horizon.
Politicians have decided to delay the decision of acquisition to 2014, making it a task for the next government/administration. If the F-35A is procured, the direct result of this delay is a stretched out acquisition with deliveries starting in 2019 instead of 2016. Deliveries will take up to 2027 if both the first as the second batch of planes are procured, although it's impossible for the RNLAF to purchase the second batch in it's current financial state. It's therefore to be expected that only the first batch of 65 planes will be ordered, resulting into a reduced overall delivery time.

Quote:

The change is not surprising given delays to development and IOC dates: international customers can clearly benefit from delaying their orders, since according to the most recent Selected Acquisition Report, an F-35A ordered in 2018 costs $35 million less than a 2014 model.

According to the very same letter Sweetman refers to, there is no actual benefit because of this delay. The unit cost rises from EUR 59,7m to EUR 60,4m, it creates a gap in operational capabilities and burns up acquisition budget in order to keep them F-16MLU's flying. The latter alone is expected to cost up to EUR 300-500m.
It's rather short-sighted to say that either the Netherlands or the RNLAF is profiting and therefore happy with the current state of affairs.

What mister Sweetman forgets to tell is, a delay will cost the Dutch, flying 68 F16’s
three longer then planned, at least: €300 million = US $421 million.
(As well as the Norwegians will cost longer flying the F16 a lot of money)

These are mainly updating costs etc. But without higher maintenance costs and
extra costs to be made because the jet gets older, wings and etc.
Over half a $ billion still investing in the F16, will make the F35 a lot less cheaper
then mister Sweetman writes about.

The delay is partly because of a later ordering the F35 by the Dutch government,
but also, in case of the Dutch, because of the US ordering system (Letter Dutch min of Defence)
Dutch F35’s will be ordered within US orders.

Mr. Sweetman knows more then the Dutch min of Defence!
Quote: which called for the Netherlands to sign contracts for nine aircraft in 2014 and
ten in 2015 and subsequent years,

As written to MP this year, the minister has no, and good not give data/information about
a knew delivery system as will be used by the US (involving also ordering Dutch F35’s).
Secondly, the next government will order the F35.

Mr Sweetman, with all that knowledge, could become the first min. of Defence of the
European Union in the future. Suppose no US aircraft will be bought during his term?

The IOT&E phase is a separate part of the SDD phase, the orders involving the UK and Dutch
F35’s differ from the full rate production F35’s as ordered by Norway etc.

Theoretically the UK and the Dutch have no obligation to buy also production machines
Practically either, it will not be possible to buy the F35 not by the UK and the Dutch.

Last edited by m on Jul 12, 2011 - 02:54 AM; edited 1 time in total

Till so far a number is used for 85 F35’s.
This is a fictive number for measurement and counting during all these years
As well as used, a dollar mid rate for counting the prize of a F35.
The actual prize is far less, because of a lower dollar rate.

The exact number of F35’s to order has never been mentioned by any Dutch government.
The number to order, as well as what the budget for ordering the F35 will be, is the
responsibility for the next government.
The only number mentioned by the government, years ago, a first batch of 50 F35’s

What has been stated is; 20% less F35’s can be ordered when not raising
a proposed budget of €6.2 billion. 20% less, would mean in that case 68 F35’s.
(The actual number of F16’s in the Dutch Airforce).
Otherwise the budget has to be raised to at least €7.6 billion.

Either a first €4.5 billion will already be put aside for ordering the F35.

Last delivery in 2027, is also a year counted by the government with a number of 85 F35`s
When less F35’s will be ordered, for example 60-70, the last ones will be delivered
some years before 2029.

Nothing new here.

Except that the worldwide supply chain was expecting something that resembled actual orders. They have investors that are wondering where the return on investment is. Idea

Nothing new, except that the MOU stating numbers of airframes and years isn't worth the electrons it was written with. It never has been.

elp wrote:

Nothing new, except that the MOU stating numbers of airframes and years isn't worth the electrons it was written with. It never has been.

I agree with that completely, because it's political reality. It's up to LM to get the F-35 into production for the US within reasonable range of the original price estimates or customers, whatever their promises, will simply walk away.

Well considering the world financial crisis, the delays are probably giving some a sigh of relief, since it means they won't have to shell out as early as planned.

What many folks and including many of the key decision makers have unfortunately not comprehended to date, is that even beyond the increasingly serious financial crisis fast unfolding (yes, which in part has been factored in and assessed as imminent, to one degree or another for years now by some at least - i.e. no, not in 20-20 hind), there is a necessary, long-term fiscal restructuring policy due to be implemented on both sides of the pond (special emphasis to come on the left side of the pond).

So again for those who might have missed it... long term budget policy restructuring is absolutely necessary to address the financial responsibilities for at least the duration of this decade.

For example, just today Moody's told Denmark they must make improved banking and financing policy governance going forward (on multiple levels of finance), in order to maintain.

In the US, we will be facing increasingly austere budgetary environments (which imho should have been planned for and already commenced in FY2011 let alone FY12 now). e.g. It's not a matter of simply waiting a couple years for the recession to blow over and bingo, start ramping up the cheap F-35 orders heading into FRP. That popular mindset alone unfortunately, has largely been responsible for keeping the very well intended, but catastrophically flawed and unsustainable 'stay the course' JSF business model, on course that is for very troubling TACAIR recap consequences. God speed..

Story about Dutch 'soon to be' participation in an overall F-35 'test' story of 2 pages in the latest edition of: [only conclusion text shown in graphic below]

Combat Aircraft Monthy European Edition Vol.12 No.12 Dec 2011

Lightning Partners Dutch F-35 Flight Test at Edwards by Frank Visser

Forum: F-35 Lightning II

RNLAF decided to delay and stretch out acquisition of F-35s