Forum: F-35 Lightning II

hb_pencil wrote:

m wrote:

Yep, but are, or could these comparisons really made in Canada with other jets?

As far as I know the F35 is one of the first jets to predicts these cost … as far as possible.

What DND did was to survey the other manufacturers and approached foreign operators in order to model possible costs. All of the competitors have been in service for a decade, so there was some ability for them to compare long term costs.

Doubt Canadian computers could predict this a decade ago.

Typhoon > UK Natonional Audit Office 2011:

Quote: the unit cost of support per aircraft has risen by approximately a third.

Quote: Risks remain as the aircraft will be in service for another 20 years and it is unsurprising that 84 per cent of forecast support costs are not yet on contract.

Quote: There is also difficulty in determining the full cost of infrastructure maintenance and utility as Typhoon is not the only consumer of these items at the stations at which it is based.

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m wrote:

hb_pencil wrote:

m wrote:

Yep, but are, or could these comparisons really made in Canada with other jets?

As far as I know the F35 is one of the first jets to predicts these cost … as far as possible.

What DND did was to survey the other manufacturers and approached foreign operators in order to model possible costs. All of the competitors have been in service for a decade, so there was some ability for them to compare long term costs.

Doubt Canadian computers could predict this a decade ago.

Typhoon > UK Natonional Audit Office 2011:

Quote: the unit cost of support per aircraft has risen by approximately a third.

Quote: Risks remain as the aircraft will be in service for another 20 years and it is unsurprising that 84 per cent of forecast support costs are not yet on contract.

Quote: There is also difficulty in determining the full cost of infrastructure maintenance and utility as Typhoon is not the only consumer of these items at the stations at which it is based.

The analysis was done in 2009... before the decision in 2010 I think by that point the issues with the Eurofighter were pretty apparent to the RAF and MoD.

Yep, but could "Canadian" computers predict these costs?

Flying costs: £70,000 (US$81,000) an hour! Tornado: £35,000 (US$40,000) an hour.
In service, Trance 1 only: 12-16 years. Tornado''s two years longer in service (2021) than Trance 1 (2019). Trance 3: 17 years

Too much costs are uncertain, don't have the idea the RAF has a clue what to expect?

m wrote:

Yep, but could "Canadian" computers predict these costs?

Flying costs: £70,000 (US$81,000) an hour! Tornado: £35,000 (US$40,000) an hour.
In service, Trance 1 only: 12-16 years. Tornado''s two years longer in service (2021) than Trance 1 (2019). Trance 3: 17 years

Too much costs are uncertain, don't have the idea the RAF has a clue what to expect?

Well does anybody then? Would Cassadian really be able to provide a better information than what RAF/MoD are able to offer? Probably not. These are all estimates.... and judgement has to be based on the best evidence possible. According to the DND analysis, the F-35's costs were significantly less.

Hb pencil. Don't think anybody can, but the F35 has a case being the first jet, to some extend, predict these costs as far as possible

m wrote:

Hb pencil. Don't think anybody can, but the F35 has a case being the first jet, to some extend, predict these costs as far as possible

Earlier programs attempted to take into account the "total lifecycle costs" including the F/A-18E. You can see that in the 1996 SAR, and this 1998 GAO review. I think the five years that the Eurofighter had been in service by that point is just as illustrative as all of the pre-production analysis that the Program Office has produced for the F-35.

That's not to say the F-35's analysis is not important or as detailed as its predecessors. IT is as important and is more detailed. But I believe that DND had all the information it needed to make the decision it did.

By the way M, I sent you a PM.

Forum: F-35 Lightning II

Canada has the most idiotic reporters