Forum: F-35 Lightning II

geogen wrote:

ww - If you can allow me some expanded thoughts in response:

This main issue corresponds directly with my core motives to scrutinize JSF. The very unfortunate consequence of 'staying the course' with this 90s bubble-era influenced Program - as well intentioned as it was - is that the national strategy will be forced in part to downsize by default (not by choice), due to an unintended, significantly decreased tac-air force structure via the Program's inherently flawed recapitalization plan.

How is it inherently flawed? It was a pre-conceived, pre-planned success story, per order of the central Office - being a cheap fighter based on 3,000+ units sold. Only one problem however: This, I'm very sorry, is a blinded, flawed, unsustainable business plan and plainly unrealistic. Everyone's plans/strategies evolve over time: economics, finances, technical variables, strategies, politics and so on all change.. It is just not a program built around a formula to be 'successful and sustainable' while under a flexible procurement schedule including those in much lower annual production rates.

Now, with the unfortunate (surprise surprise) SNAFU's (costs and delays) of this unprecedentedly complex Program's multiple-jet-in-one development; we are finding out that due to realities, customers either cannot afford the jet on levels originally expected... or have other strategic schedules/plans (or political factors, etc) in the cards.

As far as USAF's future budgets go, nobody can predict exactly of course. But with common sense and from growing chatter in Congress at least, it would suggest that near-future Defense budgets will not escape federal cut-backs and that surely, 'buying power' will be reduced. When realizing FY11's $520billion defense budget could possibly buy USAF as few as 16 tactical jets though, it could then be seen somewhere in the range of 30-35 CTOL units/yr max, being afforded by AF and costing (PUC cost) far more than estimated.

So without recurring, substantially increased USAF budgets and without increased personnel (very unlikely), it's likely the 'stuck' JSF Program will have very unfortunately contributed to a future strategy seeing more 'Air-sufficiency', over 'Air superiority/dominance', by default.

I don't disagree that some cuts will/may occur, but I think that you're exaggerating how big they'll be. Unless our national strategy changes from being able to fight 2 regional wars simultaneously/1 major war and 1 Panama size conflict, then the budget will be dictated by needed capability.
I don't think too many lawmakers are willing to appear that soft on defense to gut the military. This is why I stick with the 1300-1500 figure. That's still 260-460 aircraft cut. Any larger cuts, WILL make the program unaffordable.

F-16.net Sponsor

Last edited by spazsinbad on Sep 21, 2010 - 02:25 AM; edited 1 time in total

OLD news but relevant: The director of air warfare on the Chief of Naval Operations staff, Rear Adm. Michael C. Manazir

Navy’s Projected Strike Fighter Shortfall in 2017 Based on Current Wars Usage Rates

http://defensetech.org/2010/05/24/navys ... z106ObCL6i

"The Navy held a conference call with reporters today to shoot down any rumors that it’s going soft on the carrier version (F-35C) of the Joint Strike Fighter in favor of the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet.

The Navy intends to buy 124 Super Hornets in a multiyear purchase plan between FY 2010–2013, for a grand total of 515 F/A-18E/F/G aircraft, said Rear Adm. Mike Manazir, head of naval aviation programs.

But the fact that the Navy continues to buy large numbers of Super Hornets does not mean it doesn’t plan to buy even more F-35s, a true “game changing” 5th generation stealth aircraft, he said.

The Navy and Marines planned buy remains 680 JSFs, Manazir said. How many of that total will ultimately be the carrier version F-35C or the Marine’s short take-off and landing version F-35B, remains a topic of discussion between the two services....

...Ultimately, though, the Navy really wants a 5th generation strike fighter and is counting on the F35C.

The Navy has expanded the capabilities of the Super Hornet to about “4.2-ish” generation capability, Manazir said, which is the limit of how much it can be upgraded. While some 5th generation low observable features are built into the Super Hornet, the fact that its weapons hang-off the wings, it cannot internally store weapons, means it has upper limits of stealthiness.

“The F-35Cs sensor fusion, data fusion and the stealth characteristics… allow it to get in there on day one of an anti-access denial kind of a fight,” Manazir said.

The Navy plans to operate the JSF and Super Hornet in combination, covered by an E-18G in a jamming role, to maximize the abilities of both aircraft. While functioning as a stealthy strike aircraft able to penetrate enemy air defenses the F-35C will also operate as a communications “node” on the Navy’s battle network, providing and transporting data to other ships and aircraft....

...the aircraft’s initial operational capability remains 2016, Manazir said.

“We continue to closely observe and interact with the contractor Lockheed Martin, and tell them what our requirements are.” Those requirements have not changed, he said. The Navy plans to field ten F-35C in the first squadron."
________________

March 19, 2008
CO of USS Nimitz [CVN-68] Bags His 1000th Trap! Capt. Mike Manazir traps aboard HIS own carrier, the USS Nimitz, for the 1,000th time in his 27 year naval aviation career!

http://tailhookdaily.typepad.com/tailho ... nimit.html

I’ve learned from the “leaked chart” that dashed red lines are bad.

I’ve learned that visually & technically, if you put the C on top of the bar chart, it becomes the problem.

I’ve learned that visually & technically, if you put the B back on top of the chart, it resumes being the problem.

I’ve learned that if I can live to FY 54, I can relax.

So much information, so little time.

Accountants revel in this stuff. This is what accountants do. This is why they get up in the morning.

OL

How many will actually survive the impending cuts (assuming the world doesn't end in 2012), I hear that the "buy" is going to be about 60% of the original pie in the sky numbers. Lets face it - we have no enemies that have air forces, and international politics won't let America be the world's undisputed dominant military superpower. (The first part is sarcasm, the 2nd part is the gospels truth). In closing: We are the dominant superpower of the day, but we're deliberately letting China play catch in the white world arms race. The mid-east nations, well, they are very defeatible even with F-15s, 16s, and 18s for various reasons. The Russians government is so corrupt and full of money hungry thugs that they will never start a war with the West.... they only want to export weapons for profit. That leaves China... and that's a whole other can of worms to talk about.

We'll see about 60% of the original requirement for the -35.

sewerrat wrote:

We are the dominant superpower of the day, but we're deliberately letting China play catch in the white world arms race.

And what a bright move that is, a real blinder...

shep1978 wrote:

sewerrat wrote:

We are the dominant superpower of the day, but we're deliberately letting China play catch in the white world arms race.

And what a bright move that is, a real blinder...

Does the US have any real influence on China's defense policy/decisions? The PROC will do what they want to do so long as they are willing to pay the costs involved. The US can either sit on its current lead and allow the gap to close or invest what's necesssary to ensure a contiinuing measure of superiority.

FY2007, LRIP 1, 2,
2*F-35A,
Deliveries are expected to complete in December 2010.

FY2008, LRIP 2, 12,
6*F-35A+ 6*F-35B,
Deliveries are expected to complete in December 2011.

FY2009, LRIP 3, 17,
7*F-35A+7*F-35B for USA,
2*F-38B for UK,
1*F-35A for Netherlands, Netherlans may cancel its order,
Deliveries are expected to complete in December 2011.

FY2010, LRIP 4, 32,
12*F-35A+14*F-35B+4*F-35C for USA,
1*F-38B for UK,
1*F-35A for Netherlands, Netherlans may cancel its order,
Deliveries are expected to complete in December 2012.

Qwe -

Source for that? Spud, you have a source?

From nine deliveries in CY2010 (five or six of which haven't happened yet) to 29 in 2011?

The numbers seem ok.. Energo has better access than I to confirm delivery dates.

From the last public MARS (Nov 2009), LRIP2 was 4.5 months behind and LRIP3 was on schedule.

Quote:

LRIP 2 -AF-II shipped on 19 Oct 09, one day ahead of schedule. AF-12 is now scheduled to ship 17 Dec 09, and AF-13 is scheduled for 17 Jan 09.

The DCMA is currently working on a MARS FOIA request for Dec 2009 through Mar 2010 and I filed a request for Apr 2010 through current.

FWIW: as far as who has more 'access' to what numbers and plans, etc... let's remember that if it's not data which is accessible via actual public releases; then it's either non-public (or not-yet-public) company/JPO estimates/info, or speculation. Something to consider.

Or.. it may have been released and I cannot find it ATM or the fact that the info is releasable and has not yet been.

DOD News Briefing with Secretary Gates and Adm. Mullen from the Pentagon

http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/tran ... iptid=4690

"SEC. GATES: Good afternoon.....

....We must all make every dollar count to ensure that our military has the forces and capabilities needed in a dangerous world.

An example of the savings of this new approach -- this new approach is delivering is the contract for the fourth lot of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighters. After extensive negotiations, the department has reached an agreement to use a fixed-price incentive fee contract for the purchase of 30 F-35s for the U.S. military. [Where are other two? 1 for UK and 1 Dutch?]

This type of contract shares the cost of overruns between the government and industry up to a fixed ceiling. It also shares the rewards when the programs come in under cost. The per-unit price we've negotiated for this new contract is 15 to 20 percent below the independent cost estimate for the F-35 prepared earlier this year.

The contract as structured will enhance the productivity of the Joint Strike Fighter program to reduce overall costs. The department will continue to closely monitor and aggressively manage this important program...."

Forum: F-35 Lightning II

How many F-35s will be ordered?