Forum: F-35 Lightning II

The F-35 quotes are for total program cost (including dev) averaged over all F-35s bought.

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LoL, Spud, sorry for going in circles on this but, 'Which' quoted price would that be? Just trying to nail down context. Of course, there are so many prices going around, from original estimated Total program avg 'Flyaway Cost', to estimated FMS unit flyaway cost, to revised estimated total program avg Flyaway Cost, to estimated Total Avg Program Unit Cost (a little different from Program's avg Unit Flyaway Cost estimate). I get the precise terms mixed up admittedly, so please forgive any confusion on exact terminology and only hope the point is understood.

Most likely though, the avg Unit Procurement Costs will go up from current estimates, based on the highly speculative, still official Total fleet buy figures which will be going down. (As will final Unit Procurement costs go up for advanced blocks such as blk 5, especially if procured in smaller numbers than projected).

Not saying this will cause the 'Dream to end', and I truly support block V being achieved ASAP, as close to schedule as possible (as a very arguably credible component to the future Tacair mix), but we really can't experience the dream before barely bedding down. imho.

I think alot are forgetting something. Imagine if we had an F-35/36/37 program for each service to fulfill their requirements? 3 seperate programs instead of one. How much do you think that would cost? 3 seperate production lines, suppliers, tooling, beaurocrats... How much do you think that would cost?

Yes, but... I'd concur, in that while well-intentioned, 'it' would probably not the wisest, calculating and most feasible tacair recap policy to necessarily implement 3 distinct, brand new, non-flexible, locked-in, all or nothing stealth a/c design/development/production fundings, over a pre-conceived schedule spanning 30 yrs and cost estimates banked on. Or fail. This wouldn't be the best approach or properly managed recap proposition, unless maybe, it was conceived of as a product of the 1990s bubble era and then it could be more understanable in thinking big and unlimited? Just one perspective, but I hear what you're saying. Seriously, one could arguably think the requirements should have been separately tackled on more realistically sustainable, variable timelines, according to different requirements, and including both evolved-design solutions, 'High-low' mixing and more Off The Shelf based (at least in the early blocks) new-build designs. For one thing, the USAF strat probably should have been viable from inception without needing 80 very cheap stealth jets/yr for a total of 1,760 procured. Periodically upgraded legacy a/c, even radically upgraded for exploiting entirely new platform capabilities could have been procured all along as part of an annual procurement budget - thus taking off pressure on demanding all 1,760 Stealth jets as such. Who knows, maybe by the early 2020s some new tech would come along, say semi-autonomous, auto-targeting VLO UCAVs, which would come into the mix of things, further reducing need for steady rates of manned strike planes? Maybe even far superior tech/platform designs (and requirements to justify them) would come along by the mid/late 20s justifying a draw down of 90s designed strike plane buys? Maybe financially or otherwise politically, procurement recap plans would need to be flexible and adaptive?

cywolf32 wrote:

I think alot are forgetting something. Imagine if we had an F-35/36/37 program for each service to fulfill their requirements? 3 seperate programs instead of one. How much do you think that would cost? 3 seperate production lines, suppliers, tooling, beaurocrats... How much do you think that would cost?

Might not be all that much more, especially if they required avionics and sensor commonality. A lot of the cost overruns have been due to trying to shoehorn Navy and Marine requirements into an Air Force airframe.

It needs to be understood that the marine and navy variants, although somewhat specialized and unique, do share slot with the VTOL ac, if anything production processes, tooling, methods, etc. To individually develop unique ac for those roles would cost even more in r&d and set up. Not to mention the common systems development savings. The program is large because it strives to make large changes and savings for the entire force. These jets are stuffed with the latest tech avail now, to provide that edge force wide for a long time to come.

Not as much as one would think.

bjr1028 wrote:

Not as much as one would think.

And what do you base that on? What kind of supply chain and manufacturing principles are you using? Apparently I need to be enlightened.

I'm looking at this and seeing similarities to the F-111/Tornado.

Not sure but it sounds like too much of a compromise with too many cooks in the kitchen. To produce 3 variants for multiple NATO countries for multiple missions is a tall order. While I have no doubt about the engine/avionics I am concerned about the software "bugs" that will have to be worked out once its fielded. I can only imagine the amount of coding LMC is having to go through. That and the somewhat limited airframe within which to house all of the necessary bells and whistles. I don't for a second believe the price LMC is quoting, especially given the "build out" capabilities that will be asked of it...

I hope I'm wrong and it's a world beater. B/C if it's not, USAF is going to be kicking itself for cutting the Raptor short. I'm surprised Israel hasn't objected more vigorously to said concerns. Perhaps they've been told in private of capabilities we're unaware of. Whatever the case, this thing is going to be a workhorse and see action on multiple fronts/continents for those that can afford it.

What many of you decline to notice is that currently if the F18 F16 F15 A10 and Harrier were cars they would be Classics but not only that they would have somthing like 300,000 miles a piece comparably. The military needs a new jet and the F35 is it, It has met every single criteria of all the Services and then some, The abilitys of the F35 (VSTOL/RADAR/ELECTONIC JAMMING SUIT/DEAMON HEALMENT MOUNTED DISPLAY/AND A SUPER COMPUTER THAT MAKES THE CRAY LOOK LIKE A COMADOR 64) are unmatached, and will mostlikely remain that way for a very very very long time, the T-50 is a prototype fighter aircraft that was obsolete from them molment it was concived to call it a 5th Gen aircraft is a mockery. Its stealth capabilitys are decent at best with the proposed electronic suit barely capable of finding its own wingman then it is a US stealth aircraft. If 20 years ago you said wanted one aircraft to replace 70% of all aircraft in the US fleet you would have been laughed at. The F35 makes this Dream possible.

wooterx wrote:

What many of you decline to notice is that currently if the F18 F16 F15 A10 and Harrier were cars they would be Classics but not only that they would have somthing like 300,000 miles a piece comparably. The military needs a new jet and the F35 is it, It has met every single criteria of all the Services and then some, The abilitys of the F35 (VSTOL/RADAR/ELECTONIC JAMMING SUIT/DEAMON HEALMENT MOUNTED DISPLAY/AND A SUPER COMPUTER THAT MAKES THE CRAY LOOK LIKE A COMADOR 64) are unmatached, and will mostlikely remain that way for a very very very long time, the T-50 is a prototype fighter aircraft that was obsolete from them molment it was concived to call it a 5th Gen aircraft is a mockery. Its stealth capabilitys are decent at best with the proposed electronic suit barely capable of finding its own wingman then it is a US stealth aircraft. If 20 years ago you said wanted one aircraft to replace 70% of all aircraft in the US fleet you would have been laughed at. The F35 makes this Dream possible.

I beg to differ ... I'm sure she will ripen and become a stellar platform!

But right now?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrZoJoajBD0

PS my civic has 350K and still performs her mission AOK!

VarkVet wrote:

PS my civic has 350K and still performs her mission AOK!

Even if your civic is some 20+ years old, I don't think it typically goes supersonic and pulls 5G+ maneuvers.

Nobody dies if your civic doesn't work.

Forum: F-35 Lightning II

Is the F-35 dream over?