Forum: F-35 Lightning II

I was reading a defense news article that made the following statement, and it sorta grabbed my attention:

Ashton Carter, defense undersecretary for acquisition, technology, and logistics, said at the hearing that the Initial Operational Capability dates for the U.S. Air Force and Navy F-35 have been shifted to 2016, a three- and two-year delay respectively. The Marine Corps date remains 2012, he said.

Last I had read, the IOC for the USAF had fallen to late 2015. Am I to understand that it has now become 2016?

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hope it's a typo !

Same here! If people are all concerned abouit fleet levels when we are facing a 2015 IOC, I'm sure that another year's worth of delay would only exacerbate that situation further. Though, if people are truly concerned about potential fleet levels for the Guard and Air Sovereignty, couldn't active duty units take on some of that responsibility until the F-35 rolls out in sufficient numbers. It seems like between all of the F-16s and F-15Es in the fleet, not to mention the F-15Cs that the active duty/ guard establishment should be able to take care of business until 2015/2016. Or, even better, why don't we use the F-22 to do some of that work until then. Maybe if we give it something of true operational impact to do, people would not view it as such an easily replaceable or equalable platform. Not to mention, it might lift some of the anti-Raptor stigma in D.C.

Any way you slice it, 2016, or 2015 for that matter, sounds an awful long ways away from here...

The USAF and USN 2016 IOC was released today by Dr Carter at the Senate Armed Services hearing.

The USMC still projects IOC for December 2012 with block 3 software (I believe USAF and USN IOC is with block 2 aircraft).

The original cost projection of the F-35 was an average cost of $50 million in constant year 2002 dollars. The new estimate is now $80 to $95 in 2002 then year dollars. In today's dollars that is $95 to $113 million. This is merely a current estimate and likely to increase.

The 60% to 90% is more than enough to trigger a Nunn McCurdy breach and Sec Donley will so inform Congress shortly.

lb wrote:

The USAF and USN 2016 IOC was released today by Dr Carter at the Senate Armed Services hearing.

The USMC still projects IOC for December 2012 with block 3 software (I believe USAF and USN IOC is with block 2 aircraft).

I think you got that reversed? USMC will be IOC under block II fitting their requirements - which has been the deduced block initially operating for years now, per USMC's firm date of expected IOC.

and Have Void - IIRC, it was recently reported that revised SDD maturity date estimates expected completion by late 2015, with IOC to follow. I know at least some on this board who had inferred that actual IOC status to be a few months after that date. That makes sense logistically and whatnot.

As far as FMS models go being a different can of worms though, IOC will now likely be farther out than this, given various differences in IOC definition between USAF and other operators. (USAF apparently just needing the block software integrated, in order to declare). E.g., RNoAF block III IOC can be extrapolated as being declared in 2018 now, rather than 2016 originally expected.

Perhaps FRP will start in FY17? My revised assessment would be for USAF to deploy about 80-100 combat coded 'FOC' F-35A block III by 2020. (Also worth noting, far fewer FOC F-16s than currently anticipated should be expected in 2020-2021, especially if there is any significant combat contingency involving airpower between now and 2020).

Now I'm all confused again. This is from a testimony:

Navy Secretary Ray Mabus, testifying with Conway and chief of naval operations Adm. Gary Roughead before the House Appropriations Defense subcommittee, said the recent restructuring of the JSF program, "will have the effect of getting the program on the path of where it should be," with the aircraft's initial operating capability (IOC) date holding at 2012 for the Marine Corps, and 2014 for the Navy's carrier version.

"Our focus is still on making our first JSF squadron deployment in 2016," Roughead said. "The adjustments we've made will enhance that probability."

So, is the USN back on for a 2014 IOC in order to meet what they are saying, or are people starting to contradict eachother's numbers? Last I checked, there hasn't been an F-35C flight yet, so it seems like the right hand isn't talking to the left, or vice-versa

(on another note, the testimony that this came from had some interesting things to say about "sombering" news regarding heat and noise signatures, and how they are identical to current 4th gen aircraft)

Quite right I did reverse it- USMC will go IOC with block 2.

The testimony from Adm Roughead sounds like what he was saying a few weeks ago- what is the date and which hearing exactly are you referring to?

The information I cited is from the March 11, 2010 from Senate Armed Services. Dr Carter's use of USAF and USN IOC of 2016 is brand new as he so stated.

According to what I'm reading, what I posted that he said was also from the 11th. Hmmm...this is odd.

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i= ... &s=AIR

Actually looking at his opening statement he didn't say 2014 IOC but rather getting aircraft to sqdn's- which I assume means training units. In any case Dr Carter is in charge of acquisition, it is he and his office that restructured the program. He stated USAF and USN IOC of 2016 was brand new information. If anyone offers conflicting information one should assume first that the new information has simply not filtered down through the system to them.

The status of the program heavily depends on how certain aspects evolve over the next 6 to 18 months. The flight test program really needs to get in gear. The F-35C has not made a single test flight, CF-1 has yet to fly. When we hear about carrier qualifications then we'll have enough data to know what is going on. Right now it's all projections based on assuming X, Y, Z all occur with a given time frame and we are no where near X.

Forum: F-35 Lightning II

Another IOC Slip?