Forum: General F-22A Raptor forum

Quote:

Plan lays out aircraft acquisition through 2040

[...] F-22 Raptor: The service will spend $1.9 billion to upgrade its 180 fighter jets with improved communications and avionics gear. Retirement of the Raptors could begin in 2025.

Source: http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/2010/ ... n_030610w/

According to this the F-22 fleet will start to retire in 2025.

WTF... I thought they would stay in service until 2040?

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I suppose they will be flying 20 year old airframes then so you couldnt rule it out - and unlike the F-16 which is still in production 32 years later, there will be no newer airframes to keep them about - sad really.

The key word there is start. Some of the earliest F-22s were produced around the 2000ish time frame, meaning that they will be around 25 years old at that time. They aren't saying that 2025 will be the out of service date, just that it will begin the gradual drawdown. Just like today we are seeing the slow retirement of the F-16 fleets, so too will we see the slow returement of the F-22 fleet. I am sure that 2040 will at least be the out of service date, if not later. The good thing is that if they are forecasting a retiring of the Raptor starting in 2025, that means they hope to have a 6th generation replacement ready by that time. They aren't going to just retire one platform without another ready to do its job.

We all just need to stay calm on the Raptor issue. They are still rolling them out in Georgia, and will for a short while yet. 2025 is 15 years in the future...

HaveVoid wrote:

The key word there is start. Some of the earliest F-22s were produced around the 2000ish time frame, meaning that they will be around 25 years old at that time. They aren't saying that 2025 will be the out of service date, just that it will begin the gradual drawdown. Just like today we are seeing the slow retirement of the F-16 fleets, so too will we see the slow returement of the F-22 fleet. I am sure that 2040 will at least be the out of service date, if not later. The good thing is that if they are forecasting a retiring of the Raptor starting in 2025, that means they hope to have a 6th generation replacement ready by that time. They aren't going to just retire one platform without another ready to do its job.

We all just need to stay calm on the Raptor issue. They are still rolling them out in Georgia, and will for a short while yet. 2025 is 15 years in the future...

Thanks that makes me feel much safer now. now I can sleep at night knowing they will have fighter jets flying over my house protecting me from the evil Russians. Laughing

We all just need to stay calm on the Raptor issue. They are still rolling them out in Georgia, and will for a short while yet. 2025 is 15 years in the future...

Well, I remember 1995 like it was YESTERDAY! Very Happy

They'd better be using the F-22 long after I'm dead, I paid for the damned thing!

Quote:

According to this the F-22 fleet will start to retire in 2025.

No, according to that, F-22 retirement "could" begin in 2025. Could does not mean "will".

HaveVoid wrote:

The good thing is that if they are forecasting a retiring of the Raptor starting in 2025, that means they hope to have a 6th generation replacement ready by that time. They aren't going to just retire one platform without another ready to do its job.

We all just need to stay calm on the Raptor issue. They are still rolling them out in Georgia, and will for a short while yet. 2025 is 15 years in the future...

Haha sounds great. You get an A for optimism. Just a minor issue going forward though, namely money $$$.

Of course, beyond accidents and attrition, actual random retirements will likely start much earlier than 2025, especially if mistake jets become just too unsafe and expensive to sustain. Perhaps there are even a couple production jets already retired, who knows. But this is normal for any tactical Program and is expected, note F-16, F-15, whathaveyou. There will be no difference or voodoo magic for Raptor.

As far as 'not to worry, there will be a 6th gen ready by 2025' to phase in as Raptors phase out. No, that is not what any plan is calling for. Reportedly, a Raptor replacement could start development by 2025, yes. But the actual stated delivery date is reportedly estimated to be 2040 (a big difference).

One potential scenario though, sure, a speculative one at this time of course, is the so-called F/A-XX (perhaps a 5.5gen) which would theoretically be mature by mid to late 20s forinstance, if a total cancellation of F-35C (possibly F-35A too?) became reality.

But unfortunately, scratching our collective heads, this said projected spread (2025 to 2040) is already deducing a significant gap, just by definition - basically another miscalculated recapitalization strategy for Raptor, a la F-35 replacement plan for F-16! Shrug

The most logical AF recapitalization strategy, I'm sorry, one being more stable, accountable and reliable... would obviously have been (some variation could still be) to keep the F-22 strategic pipeline open, in order to continue block 35 variant procurement (the variant actually being expected to still dominate in 2035). That, in addition to evolved new buy F-16 blocks to replace those at 5,000+ hrs, while F-35A successively completes SDD development / IOT&E and is ready for procurement.

But the raw idea of stopping block 35 F-22s at only 85 units after an insanely expensive, albeit sunk-cost development, only to assume some kind of Raptor-replacement to be magically developed and phased in by 2025, while being well-intentioned, is a prime example of how not to do an acquistion process.

My post was somewhat poorly phrased. I did not mean to imply that this Raptor replacement would be operational in 2025, simply that it would be in the process of design/testing, and that we wouldn't be retiring the Raptor without some sort of replacement, be it in the air at the time, or on the drawing board. As far as how the recapitalization is being run, unfortunately nothing any of us can do will change it. On the positive side, aircraft with a small number in the active duty fleet have made positive impacts in combat crises, so its possible that 187 F-22s will be enough...maybe...or then again, maybe not.

It will be very unfortunate to see any Raptor airframe retired in what many believe to be "too soon" But, and I know alot here will hate hearing(or reading) this, at the rate of UAV(yes I said UAV) development, we will most likely be flying a rather large fleet of these highly lethal weapons systems by 2025. And by that time, who knows what these systems will be doing.

The F-22 won't be out of service by 2025, but it's numbers are small enough as it is. The force will be looking more and more meager as we get closer to 2030, even if the design itself will still be the most dominant fighter out there...

In all honesty, the world most likely isn't going to end because the USAF doesn't have that many F-22s. The F-35 will be an extremely capable design as well, and the Russians or Chinese won't be able to match the US in numbers of 5th gen fighters, not to mention America's advantages in other areas. It just seems sad that such an incredible aircraft will have its life cut short like this.

Forum: General F-22A Raptor forum

F-22s to be retired starting in 2025?