Forum: F-35 Lightning II

I'd like to bring into discussion a possible RAAF F/A-18 replacement scenario. Perhaps this following force makeup has been previously discussed here, so forgive me if it's the case. (I know the topic has been beaten to death in general, although I'm wanting to the following concept to pertain to more recent analysis.)

1) 24 EA/F-18F/G have already been procured to replace F-111 force, completing its retirement by next year.
2) Remaining F/A-18 frontline squadrons will be in modern shape after latest upgrades are complete, although the birds demand higher maintenance and unpredictable, 'efficient' lifespan.
3) Entire F/A-18 force needs to have a replacement schedule perhaps starting in 2016 and completing by 2020 under current plan?
4) The first F-35 blk IV(?) squadron of 8-12 a/c however won't likely become FOC until about 2020!
5) Capability gap under this scenario can be assessed accordingly.
6) Consider current EA/F-18 blk II prices and stability of program (including potential for further spiral upgrades) and considering long-term economic unpredictability.
7) Consider unpredictable delivery, status, capability and even price of F-35 block IV/V over the mid and long-term. (CY08 cost estimates for FY10 F-35A were heavily underestimated including $30m inaccuracy, per F-35A unit Total Flyaway. Unreliable evidence supporting Program's future F-35 block III/IV price estimates any more accurately?
8.) Recommendation: RAAF should plan to continue developing a more reliable F-18EF infrastructure, training and support logistics for expanded efficiencies and economy in the near-term. Perhaps 2 additional FOC squadrons of 24 F-18E/F could supplement 24 EA-18G adaptable airframes over the next 8-10 yrs. Potential for engine/strengthened airframe design upgrade available to meet future requirements.
9) An F-35 squadron of perhaps 20+8 training a/c could be procured in 2015-16 for scheduled FOC by 2020 (calculated to replace final F/A-18 squadron's retirement). This squadron could possibly be planned as such with the intention to be the first FOC, FMS block V combat squadron. Being delivered and being FOC as readily as otherwise possible under the current pure F-35 buy scheme, this hypothetical new-concept squadron could instead take over as Quarterback for 3 experienced, fresh, modern Super Hornet squadrons -- squadrons which have already been flying, as Fully operational deterrence for years and armed with the most capable NACC phase A-A and A-G weapons currently planned.

IMHO, the most feasible and effective fighter recapitalization option (regardless of ones full opinions of the Super Hornet, pros and cons).

Below tables are respectfully submitted as a stark example only, for convenient Economical (and clearly disparate) comparisons of certain block I and block II F-35 costs and current EA/F-18 costs. They should be in no way implied as suggesting a long-term cost-imbalance, yet all JSF Program prices going forward are speculative and potentially subject to negatively impacting adjustments. Your feedback and alternative contingencies are welcome.. Highest respects to the RAAF.

http://img525.imageshack.us/img525/4504/f35vf18.jpg
http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/3144/f35vf18b.jpg

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Can't Australia during the "gap" simply rely on a constant rotation of a U.S. flat tops in the region? It's not like a high end confrontation in their domain will occur in isolation.

Last edited by Conan on Nov 09, 2009 - 09:51 AM; edited 1 time in total

They could, but they won't.

Remember Mark Binskin's remarks at the Super Hornet roll-out ceremony?

He is the Chief of Air Force.

Draw a line between the two and see what conclusions can be found...

Why would it take 4 years for a squadron to go from IOC to FOC?

According to [url=http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/budget-pressure-delays-landing-of-new-fighter/story-e6frg8yo-1225764574500] the first squadron will be IOC around 2017.

These pilots will be trained at Eglin AFB, so when the F-35s arrive in AUS, they are ready to go.

Eglin Pilot Schedule:

Even with a 2-3 year delay, F-35 will arrive in AUS before 2017.

Enthusiast Joined: Apr 23, 2009 - 08:44 AM Posts: 97

- The supers are going back to the USN 2025 (latest).
- there is no guarantee that the gumbies will be wired up to full spec
- australia does TLS costings a bit different from the US, so using any US based models is likely to be skewed.

www.filefront.com/user/SpazSinbad · Elite 1K Joined: May 05, 2009 - 10:31 PM Posts: 1094

gf0012-aust, The Oz Super Hornets have been bought outright so whenever they may be sold back to USA is moot. 12 of the 24 will be fully wired in the factory to be upgraded to Growlers as required. I don't believe any Growly bits have been bought by Oz thus far.

Enthusiast Joined: Apr 23, 2009 - 08:44 AM Posts: 97

spazsinbad wrote:

gf0012-aust, The Oz Super Hornets have been bought outright so whenever they may be sold back to USA is moot. 12 of the 24 will be fully wired in the factory to be upgraded to Growlers as required. I don't believe any Growly bits have been bought by Oz thus far.

No they haven't been bought outright. They are to be returned to the US/USN circa 2020 and 2025 latest. They are interims. They're not reselllers.

I attended the Shornet briefing for RAAF in Apr this year where both BACC capability leader and the BACC RAAF lead PM reinforced that they were interims and being returned pending JSF roll out timelines. The above was also subsequently reinforced at the NACC briefing on JSF and by CAF (Binskin). Govt also via DefMin has also reiterated that these are going "home" circa 2025.

6 are to be wired. There are no project timelines to make them full gumbies yet and that depends on the status of JSF as it slides into staged IOC in RAAF. All thats happened is a commitment to fit harnesses for gumby fitouts. There is no project scope change in BACC to pre-harness any others either as the air combat capability reports already state that there is no need to maintain the gumbys beyond 2025. That may be subject to change (JSF IOC timeline variables) but NACC has primacy over BACC and BACC is short lived.

Elite 1K Joined: May 05, 2009 - 10:31 PM Posts: 1094

gf0012-aust, here is the news: "The Federal Government says it will spend $35 million upgrading half of the RAAF's still-to-be-delivered F/A-18F Super Hornets with the capacity to enable an upgrade of their electronic warfare capabilities. But a final decision to upgrade the planes, which would cost $300 million, will not be made until 2012. The Government purchased 24 of the multi-role fighters several years ago to maintain the RAAF's strike capabilities after the F-111 strike aircraft are retired. Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon says the upgrades will turn the RAAF Super Hornets into the electronic-warfare capable Growler variant." 27feb2009

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009 ... 502964.htm
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"Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon yesterday announced that 12 of the 24 Super Hornets currently on order from Boeing will be wired for electronic attack capabilities while they are still on the production line, allowing the RAAF to upgrade the aircraft to the E/A18 Growler configuration at a later date if the Government decided to do so.

''Wiring 12 of the Super Hornets as Growlers will give us the opportunity to provide taxpayers with better value for money,'' Mr Fitzgibbon said.

''If finally pursued, the relatively small investment will significantly enhance the Super Hornet's capability by giving electronic attack capacity and therefore the ability to nullify the systems of opposing aircraft.''

The wiring will add a modest $35million to the $6.6 billion price tag attached to the controversial program started by the Howard government.

Once modified, the aircraft could then be upgraded to full Growler capability through acquisition of electronic warfare pods.

If all 12 aircraft were eventually converted into Growlers, it would cost an additional $300 million.

According to Mr Fitzgibbon a final decision will not be required until around 2012.

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/lo ... 46665.aspx
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In 2020-25 whenever they are 'resold' back to the USN would be difficult to predict. Probably the USN will need them by then though. Rolling Eyes

Enthusiast Joined: Apr 23, 2009 - 08:44 AM Posts: 97

spaz, check your PM

Elite 1K Joined: May 05, 2009 - 10:31 PM Posts: 1094

geogen, just found this graphic re Total Cost of Ownership on APA website - thought it might be useful to your discussion here. Graphic from there (Source: Defense Acquisition University): http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-NOTAM-111109-1.html

www.filefront.com/user/SpazSinbad · Elite 1K Joined: May 05, 2009 - 10:31 PM Posts: 1094

gf0012-aust, the PM system on this board blows. Have tried sending a reply this morning twice. They might reach you but then again maybe not. To me it seems as if the reply has not been sent (twice). I prefer you e-mail me for a much more reliable reply. Thanks. E-mail should be visible in my profile on this board.

Enthusiast Joined: Apr 23, 2009 - 08:44 AM Posts: 97

spazsinbad wrote:

gf0012-aust, the PM system on this board blows. Have tried sending a reply this morning twice. They might reach you but then again maybe not. To me it seems as if the reply has not been sent (twice). I prefer you e-mail me for a much more reliable reply. Thanks. E-mail should be visible in my profile on this board.

ack. check for incoming

Question: Would the RAAF consider the proposed "Growler Lite" vs the current E/A-18G in USN Service???

Elite 1K Joined: May 05, 2009 - 10:31 PM Posts: 1094

Sydney Australia 'Daily Telegraph' reports:

"Last Updated: November 12, 2009 Australia buys first stealth fighters as part of major defence plan EXCLUSIVE by Ian McPhedran From: The Daily Telegraph November 12, 2009 12:00AM

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/a ... 5796703633

"AUSTRALIA will buy about a dozen US-built Joint Strike Fighters in the first phase of a $16 billion plan to equip the air force with the stealth planes.
It is understood the National Security Committee of Cabinet is due to sign off on the nation's biggest ever defence project on November 27.

Defence Minister John Faulkner and Defence Materiel Minister Greg Combet have finalised a submission for "second pass" approval of the project.

Up to 100 of the so-called "fifth generation" fighters, described by US generals as a "giant leap", will eventually be purchased in batches of 20 or so to be delivered between 2014 and 2021.

The first operational RAAF squadron of the multi-role fighter jets will be in place by 2017.

The price of the JSF will vary depending on purchase dates, production schedule, delivery dates and currency fluctuations, but will have a "fly away" price of about $80 million each.

The purchasing schedule will coincide with the phased retirement of the ageing fleet of F/A-18 Hornets.

Meanwhile, two dozen Boeing Super Hornet fighters will be delivered to Amberley RAAF base in Queensland from 2012 under a $6 billion project to cover any capability "gaps" in the JSF delivery schedule.

Government sources said no decision would be taken on the final number until several years down the track.

The RAAF will be locked into the JSF type, but the total number and price will not be known for some time.

"The final number will probably be a matter for a future government," a source said.

Mr Combet recently toured Lockheed Martin's huge JSF production facility at Fort Worth in Texas and came away convinced that the stealth plane, which is almost invisible to current radars, was the way ahead.

"On all relevant issues - that is, the capability of the JSF, its cost and the schedule for delivery, and Australian industry participation - I came away with greater confidence," he said."
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Some 'old' Oz news speculation (in comparison to above speculation apparently)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politic ... 5796727927

Budget fear puts off buy-up of F-35 jets Patrick Walters, National security editor From: The Australian November 12, 2009

Forum: F-35 Lightning II

RAAF F-35 sqn Quarterbacking F-18 Supers