Forum: F-22A Raptor

Hey folks I've been a member here since 2005 but through a different name but since then I haven't really paid much attention to military aircraft due to work and all. Anywho I would just like to say I'm glad to be back but can someone keep me up to date. What's going on with the whole F/A-22 raptor? I heard that the Raptor isn't replacing the F-15 and that the F-16 is doing that? Is Obama scrapping the Raptor as well?

Thanks
Brad

F-16.net Sponsor

Brad,
The F-22 is being capped at 187. It will continue to get upgrades in the future and will hold the position of Air Dominance fighter, although it does have a limited A2G capability with either 1000 lb JDAMS or 250 lb SDBs. There is an issue of the oldest airframes not being able to get the latest upgrades, but that may get addressed in a later budget now that there is a 187 cap.

It will mainly take over the role of Air Superiority from the F-15C.

As for the F-16, it's missions will mostly be taken over by the upcoming F-35A which has a planned IOC of 2013. The F-35 has the ability to carry, internally in it's "stealthiest" mode, up to two 2000 lb JDAM (or laser guided) bombs and two AIM-120D A2A missiles. For Air Superiority missions, the F-35 can carry 4 A2A missiles at IOC with plans for more around the 2017 timeframe.

Brad -

Hiya. Yeah, as you can imagine there are plenty of 'perspectives' on this whole issue of whats being replaced by what and how many will eventually be what and when, etc, etc. But you are correct, things are not as they were 'assumed' to be, according to previous USAF recapitalization plans that were estimated when laying out legacy aircraft replacement policy. And it's definitely in flux going forward, with new 'unexpected' alterations to the 'assumed' calculus looming.

Re: F-22, there are apparently around 120 PAA coded F-22, of which about 85 are designed to be ultimately upgraded to block 35 capability - the level of F-22 capability originally conceived as being required for true 5th gen deterrence over the longer term. The problem is, the F-22 was never designed or conceived to be cut after 85 block 35 capable units being procured (short of peace breaking out between major powers of the world). In addition, things 'security-wise' could be said to be more sketchy and unpredictable looking out 5 yrs even, then mostly envisioned when F-22 was pre-IOC and required procurement numbers being calculated were considerably higher.

Re: F-35, the initial IOC dates will be for test/training units. Credible squadron numbers, which are Fully Operational Capable however, might not be until 2016 or later. Even then, under best case scenarios (no further delays or reduced orders), the USAF tactical airpower shortfall - being the reality under current recap plan - is not expected to be bridged until 2020 (according to GAO). This strategic gap is one of the major 'yikes' factors being talked about sometimes in US Congress and recently by a few ANG voices even. It's really not even a relevant debate now unfortunately, about expected technical specs or upgraded capabilities and their dates expected, etc, -- it's more about what the price will be for the following LRIP aircraft and even initial FRP units (compared to the original Program estimates) and if Congress/Services will soon be reducing FY orders by considerable numbers. If so, the price could further increase and Foreign sales further reduced... more so than pessimistic estimates made by JET/GAO, potentially creating an F-22 like scenario (which could be proposition the USAF would not want to enter, especially after F-15/16/18 lines are closed). This is a point which has given jitters and raised alarm to F-35 critics over the recent past.

Ironically, if Congress and USAF knew back in mid 90s that F-22 would be capped at just 85 upgradeable units providing future Air-superiority and capped largely due to miscalculated, over-lapping JSF/F-35 procurement plan needs (and other miscalculated major replacement programs needed in conjunction), and that the eventual JSF program itself would suffer severe unexpected cost increases - which would potentially result in significant systemic recapitalization risk... USAF and Congress would probably have scratched BOTH F-22 and future JSF point-blank and gone in the interim with upgraded F-15 and F-16 variant developments as stop-gaps (combined w/ asymmetrical weapon system concepts).

Sorry Geogen, your F-35 timeline is WAY off. You are confusing DT&E Units with IOC units.

Test and evaluation units are getting their jets NEXT YEAR. Here is Eglin AFB's schedule for aircraft over the next few years:

Here is Eglin AFB's schedule for pilots for the next few years:

Here is Eglin AFB's schedule of Maintainer training over teh next few years:

This does not even count the other test and training units, just Eglin.

The FACT is that in 2013 they plan to have a fully functional, front-line USAF F-35A unit with the Block 3 software (2012 for the USMC and 2014 for the USN).

As recently as within the last 30 days they, LM and the JPO, have confirmed that these are still the planned IOC dates.

As far as price goes, the Big O's admin has recently expressed the desire to INCREASE the rate at which the F-35 will be produced over the next few years. Add to this LM's recent acknowledgment of being UNDER BUDGET on the last two LRIP cycles, the GAO estimates are looking weaker and weaker.

SM - I know, it was a lengthy post, my apologies - although one expanded on more for Brad in case he was interested in reading through the whole thing. lol.

But I think you misread part of my post in particular. I didn't necessarily doubt first USAF IOC units by 2013. But I was saying 'Fully functional' either with regards to the 2016 ballpark... I said 'credible, Fully Operational Capable squadrons' by 2016 or later. A slight difference. Sure, I concur that in 2012-2013 there's a solid chance of block III SDD phase achieving maturity and accordingly, and the first USAF IOC 'units' (likely one full squadron) being declared IOC under USAF/DoD JSF-specific terminology.

But SM, and I think your charts only verify this estimate, the first 50+ CTOL jets will be designated Training squadron jets (IOC training squadrons). I.e., doing the simple math off the FY procurement estimates: the first jets delivered AFTER the first 60 or so Training jets, which could be assumed as designated for the first FOC Fighter Squadron, would be ordered in 2012 (assuming FY12 order is on track) and likely delivered in late 2014 for an initial USAF FOC Fighter Squadron deployed by early 2015!

As I said credible FOC squadrons in 2016 (perhaps 3 Fighter squadrons deployed at operational bases), that would imply your 48 CTOL jets ordered in 2013 (2 squadrons) delivered late 2015, thus giving 3 FOC USAF squadrons by 2016! I'm just going off the same estimate schedules, SM, but of course even that is up interpretation I guess, as will be interpreting history of this program 30 yrs from now, no doubt.. Sheesh. Wink

SM, I seriously hope that by 2013 I can say: 'you know what, darnit, that Spudman guy from the forums way back was right and a very determined guy at that, who wouldn't give up on the official estimates'.

Many will just unfortunately assess different procurement numbers for USAF however, over the later LRIP years and even FRP orders to be expected. FY11 will be a big year indeed, determining if the expected ramp up to at least 24 USAF jets (43 total US jets) is on track and projecting more reliable trends for future acquisition. Respects always-

hehe... sometimes I get a little defensive when it comes to people who I think are just making numbers up. Sorry if I came on a little strong. Wink

From what I can see, by the end of 2013 LM is scheduled to have produced 52 F-35As. This number does not include the increased buy schedule that Gates called for earlier this year. By the end of 2013, Eglin is scheduled to get ~35 F-35As. This leaves ~17 F-35As for other training facilities and for the IOC unit.

I know the USAF has not explicitly said what the definition of IOC is, but the US Navy has come close. In their announcement that they were accelerating the IOC date by 6 months, they said it was going to be a "fully deployable" unit, IIRC. Links to come.

---edit---
I found the info at http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsN ... 5420090917

Quote:

WASHINGTON, Sept 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. Navy said it planned to deploy the carrier-based version of Lockheed Martin Corp's (LMT.N) F-35 fighter six months earlier than previously planned.

"The Navy has moved the initial operating capability date of the F-35C from fiscal year 2015 to the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2014," Navy spokeswoman Lt. Callie Ferrari told Reuters on Thursday.

The U.S. government fiscal year ends Sept. 30.

"The initial operating capability will be the first time a squadron of F-35Cs will be deployable," Ferrari said.

I concede I don't know the exact USAF expected schedule for creating and deploying it's first F-35A Fighter Squadron to an Operational base, vs precisely how many of the initial LRIP F-35A will be dedicated to Training Squadrons. Would you have this press release?

But just so you see where I'm coming from - I'm working off the earlier press release stating some 113 F-35s (combined A,B,C variant) originally planned for training squadrons at Eglin will likely now be split up - a portion of which will apparently be based at Luke, or an alternative 2nd Main training base. So 113 LRIP training birds could imply what, 72 F-35A (for 3 initial training squadrons)?? And reportedly, this initial 113 originally intended of Eglin is just part of an eventual 10 combined variant US Training squadrons. But for discussion sake here, I'll stick with the 72 LRIP F-35A Training birds...

So 72 F-35A will take us about half-way into Lot 6 LRIP order w/ delivery expected by around mid '14. Hence, the other half of Lot 6 would almost comprise numbers adequate for the first Fighter Squadron, as could be deduced? The following Lot 7 LRIP F-35A deliveries therefore, expected to be 48, would be delivered by end of 2015 - giving the 3 initial 'Fighter Squadrons' as previously noted above - FOC potential by early 2016?!?

So I guess where I'm debating you on the F-35A 'deployment' debate SM, is more in interpreting the charts and trying to better conclude details from sometimes vague press releases and expectations, etc. In fact, when you get the chance, I'd be very interested if you could walk through the actual LRIP Lot orders yourself and piece together an actual counter deployment schedule (comprising both Training and Fighter sq) which differs from mine.

Re: USN F-35C's reported IOC date 'from fiscal year 2015 to the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2014'... it's interesting to note that the 15th F-35C to be produced (comprising this first F-35C Training Squadron deployed to Eglin), won't even be delivered until mid-2014 itself, according to the schedule. So I'll have to respect this ambitious goal indeed, of achieving Training Squadron level IOC status by Q4 2014 and will support them all the way.

But the whole capping of F-22's to 187 is only temporary right? I mean they aren't just going to scrap everything after all these years right?

Thanks
Brad

Yep... 187 is all they get.

LoL Brad... SM and I just clobbered each other w/ about 10,000 words related to some of the current issues and that's all you can close this thread with?!? Cheers

SpudmanWP wrote:

Yep... 187 is all they get.

IF Russia or China start to deploy thei fift-gen fighters in numbers biggers then 200 i strongly suspect that USAF wold quickly buy other Raptors.

Neno wrote:

SpudmanWP wrote:

Yep... 187 is all they get.

IF Russia or China start to deploy thei fift-gen fighters in numbers biggers then 200 i strongly suspect that USAF wold quickly buy other Raptors.

Does not work that way. We like to destroy the tooling, shut down the lines, disperse the talent pool, and wait 30-40 years for the next thing to come along.

There will be no more Raptor produced because they cannot fight the Taliban in Afghanistan. Whistle

Quote:

Does not work that way. We like to destroy the tooling, shut down the lines, disperse the talent pool, and wait 30-40 years for the next thing to come along.

There will be no more Raptor produced because they cannot fight the Taliban in Afghanistan. Whistle

Lol Philly. Frustrates the heck out of me too. As for me the rose-colored glasses haven't come off with respect to DARPA/DoD programs - I believe that potential opponents won't field a contemporary to the Raptor in significant numbers until the last half of its operational life - and by then the sky will be full of block 5/10/who knows what JSF's with Gen 5+ hardware (6 AIM-120C/D internal, IRST, ASRAAM). I also think that the effort "saved" from extending Raptor production is "indirectly" bringing 6th generation fighter tech closer: combined cycle propulsion (for efficiency at super/hyper/and sub sonic speeds), advanced networking/datalinking, integration of manned/unmanned platforms, true all-aspect stealth (maybe even optical stealth), directed energy weapons, etc.

Granted, this article concedes that money "saved" (which it isn't) from capping F-22 production doesn't get transferred to 6th gen fighters... but to me it says that conceptually and developmentally our efforts are already towards the future [while Sukhoi is still trying to explain why they won't be able to put the PAK-FA into the air this year as promised]: http://www.airforce-magazine.com/Magazi ... ghter.aspx

Jetnerd

Don't forget DIRCM, JDRADM, and Internal AEW.

PhillyGuy wrote:

[

Does not work that way. We like to destroy the tooling, shut down the lines, disperse the talent pool, and wait 30-40 years for the next thing to come along.

There will be no more Raptor produced because they cannot fight the Taliban in Afghanistan. Whistle

I always find it absolutely facsinating the way that America is its own worst enemy, no other nation does it quite like America does thats for sure.

I just know the F-35 is going to be borked up by some non technical matter, well 'I just know' is taking it a bit to far perhaps so i'll simply say i'd be amazed if it didn't get raped by some kind of political nonsense. Numbers being slashed and therefore costs spiraling is my best guess with each unit probably ending up costing eight times what it should....

Forum: F-22A Raptor

What's happening with the F-22