Forum: F-22A Raptor

Why do you pick a Blk4 F-35?

What difference do you see from Blk3 to Blk4 that makes that much of a difference?

Also, you say a F-15SE is "$10-20m cheaper than a block IV". What numbers are you basing this on?

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Just hypothesizing that a potential F-15SE would also be procured around the same time when orders for block IV would be procured, say 2014? Initial F-15SE orders could compete with block III, sure.

Regarding the estimated cost difference: I was merely guesstimating there (yep, could be plus or minus). Perhaps an SE priced at about $125m in 2014, vs $135m (in then year dollars) for a block IV unit? I'm speculating in part that FY2014 could still be under a 'cost reimbursement' pricing scheme - perhaps the final year as such.

And arguably, block IV model will include software upgrades (for slight cost increase over blk3) in addition to some speculated hardware upgrades (as well as thermal management improvements) as suggested in the RNo MoD advert? Also calculating some unexpected Block III/IV price hikes, vs Boeing's willingness to sell at a 'fixed' price from the get go.

That's the rough math I guess... but as always, I'll stand corrected.

Respects.

The 2010 LRIP F-35As just went for ~$145 million (flyaway).

What makes you think that MYB FRP jets will only be $10 mill less?

Like it or not, but the MYB jets will be much less than $100 million.

Believe me SM, while it's unfortunate I may appear to be cheerleading for and gleam at the prospects of severely underestimated costs, it's the furthest thing from the truth and I wish to heck USAF could get MYB for "much less than $100m" ea. Regardless though, of my tactical/technical-based opinions which I have of the F-35 spiral plan vs other potential alternatives, I would seriously be satisfied (and more supportive at that time) of such sub-$100m unit pricing.

Regarding your reply:

Quote:

"What makes you think that MYB FRP jets will only be $10 mill less?"

Firstly, we're talking 'then year dollars' so in FY14, that hypothetical $135m would be less than $135m today. But technically speaking SM, the FY14 date being hypothesized in the example above is actually still LRIP (btw, I truly don't anticipate an accelerated LRIP buy, being requested by DoD)... hence why I didn't mention the projected initial MYB year FY15 in the example. Moreover, the FY14 could still be under 'cost-reimbursement' pricing scheme.

Quote:

"Like it or not, but the MYB jets will be much less than $100 million."

It just depends on how many annual CTOL procured will actually be agreed to by Congress, as well as how many USAF will be able to afford given full plate and uncertain budgets. Also, it will come down to actual Manufacturing, labor, material issues. One potentially miscalculated piece of the F-35s ultimate 'Fixed-price' mystery, could also be Currency-exchange related, IMO.

If the dollar is as relatively weak as it is today, by say 2014, the foreign sub-assembly and produced components of F-35 could be 'fixed' at a higher dollar price than say estimated in 2002-2007? Another thing, I just can't assume how a 'fixed' price will go as planned if JPO wants a long-term fixed order buy rate, rather than a year to year procurement plan. As said, Congress and USAF may have other intentions year to year and the cancellation penalties could be horrendous?

I'm sorry to be so skeptical in my particular forecasts, but I'm really thinking this out strategically, waay out, taking into account many historic and plausible factors which could feasibly become just as real as the original 2002 best-case scenario estimates.

I.E. since about 2007 I've assessed and currently assess about 35 max CTOL units procured at peak MYB years. Lastly, I don't see USAF CTOL procurement past say 2024. For a whole myriad of reasons: incl. financial, economic, strategic, political, and technical.

The only possible scenario (one I've postulated before) which I could currently contemplate as altering this dire projection (something I would support even as a JSF Program critic), would be to LEASE perhaps the next 330-350 LRIP F-35s under a 'Multi-year big block lease' (to potentially get Cost-reimbursed costs down too). The lease could extend over perhaps 20-25 yrs, held by DoD, sub-leased to services, etc. and could be justified as a 'National security Systemic-risk threat', a la catastrophic automotive failure scale.

After such hypothetical Lease, the year-to-year MYB schedule/costs would still be up in the air, but at least the 'Strategic schedule' could have a higher probability of survival, with Services getting higher recapitalization rates, IMHO. That's where I currently stand.. Respects, SM.

Forum: F-22A Raptor

F-22s will quarterback the war for the combat air force.