Forum: F-22A Raptor

I don't understand one thing:
The Air Force Association article claims that the current production price for an F-22 is $142mln.
But if you do the math for the proposed 7 Raptor purchase for $1.75bn, it turns out those F-22s would cost $250mln each.

How do you explain this massive difference in price? I assume it's not just "low rate" production, since this order would come right behind current production, so there are no excuses like the cost of reopening production lines, retooling, retraining or whatever.

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Maybe it included the money to close the line...? I'm not sure.

Wasn't the odd $400 million for closing the line down allocated under the Bush administration? Or maybe they are included in the $1.75 billion number?

It's probably in part towards latest F-22 upgrade development costs, let alone essential equipment and spares added in? The F-35 will have plenty of follow-on development costs (not yet funded, nor advertised shall we say) which is only normal for any spiral upgrade-oriented program of such magnitude. If we truly think future USAF block V F-35s will come down in cost as compared to a block IV alternative a few years earlier (to even out the popularly envisioned avg unit price), not to mention block VI, over the blk V... I think we need some upgraded Situational Awareness assisted rethink.

My 2 ¥ yen.

F-35 blk 5 (along with blk 4) are primarily software upgrades to the radar and communications systems.

Blk 5 is due to start production in 2018 which is in the highest airframes per year (231). So yes, based on economies of scale and it's mostly software upgrades, the Blk 5 F-35s will likely be cheaper than Blk 4 (on average) since the Blk 4 is 132, 199, and 230 per year.

I have to just disagree, sorry. Software upgrades and various avionic upgrade implementations will come at a cost, they are not minor code upgrades which LM will just throw around at USAF as free bonus? Inverse radar capability, e.g., will be retrofitted at no cost to block IV? Let alone the added logistical and maintenance costs for substantially increased software end upgrades? I mean, new buy F-16 software package upgrades alone must be option-priced for potential buyers?

And besides, unit costs and development estimates as they are, are increasing seemingly every year based on Govt assessments, which is only normal and a cost of doing business with such a highly complex and unprecedented program integration.

Furthermore, the IRST capability added to EOTS sys (as advertised), the DIRCM system, and the weapons bay reconfiguration will surely come at a premium, let alone the upgraded COMS?? Add probable increased labor and material costs (inflation) given higher production demands and we have to be anticipating future yet-to-be-calculated premiums despite any real 'fixed-cost' FRP production contract offsets?

I don't know, your camp of thought could wind up being correct and the critics will have to eat their posts. Until then I'm sorry to be in the camp feeling it as a justified criticism.

Remember I did say "mostly software". Yes, DIRCM will add some cost.

You cannot discount that the first two years of Blk 4 will be LRIP airframes and the he last year of Blk 4 will be FRP MYB.

Take a look here and see that most of the upgrades are in Blk 4, not 5. fyi, the hardware for IRST is already in the EOTS. They just need to finish the software to implement it.

This PDF might interest you Geogen.

JSF production, sustainment, and follow-on development MOU.

Amounts on pg. 34.

http://www.jsf.mil/downloads/documents/ ... b%2007.pdf

SM, the significant software upgrades, plus supposed EW upgrade, internal weapons bay reconfig and DIRCM should nonetheless cost more as options, if all other things being the same. The other variables will no doubt be when FRP and 'fixed-costing' will commence (if they will be delayed as some assessments have alerted), any labor or material cost inflation (maybe China/India could offer a production capacity by say 2016), and what numbers will actually constitute various FRP BuyYear runs?

bum, thanks for link.

OK, guys, that's all very interesting, but what about F-22? Wink

For starters, if it was previously assumed that there would only be 187 F-22, then either line closing has already been paid for, or it is not part of plane purchases. Either way, it's unlikely that it's included in the 7 Raptor order.

So where does the $700mln extra charge come from?

Sales tax? Laughing

Yeah, right, if it were sold in the EU, it would ideally fit our import duty and value-added tax. Evil or Very Mad

I suspect that the $142M came from a full run of 321 (or whatever). $240M is what happens when you buy in significantly smaller numbers...

Just guessing...

Yeah, well, I don't know about 321, I would assume $142mln is the current cost they have while at full-scale production, when all the process problems have been resolved and worker learning curves are low. So what is the excuse for charging more for a smaller lot, when the production line is running at full steam?

Higher charge for smaller numbers is justified when you are producing just those very few pieces (here: aircraft), it's the negative side of the economies of scale, right? But here you're merrely adding 7 aircraft on top of 187.

Maybe I should e-mail LM. Wink

There could be support equipment and spare engines wrapped in the 1.75 billion. Not 750 million worth but that could make up some of the difference, just a guess. Not that it matters much since the money is headed elsewhere. Although I doubt the funding will be for something a that has been used in Iraq or Afghanistan since that is supposedly the measuring stick we're using to allocate funding. Two Cents

Forum: F-22A Raptor

unit price for the proposed 7 Raptors