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Russia's Georgian aggression a blessing in disguise?



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Obamanite
PostPosted: Aug 11, 2008 - 07:52 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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As I've been saying for years, and have made clear on this forum, far more than China, Russia represents a clear and present danger for the United States and the West (I've been right about the Russians as I am now about the F-35 Flying Turd). If nothing else, Russia's disproportionate aggression against Georgia - which admittedly badly miscalculated its forway into South Ossetia - makes clear Russia's plans to consolidate and expand its power. It is a blessing in disguise because we know now, and not too late, that we cannot stop production of the F-22 at only 183 examples. It also makes clear that the USAF and the USN have been right all along, contrary to what that idiot Gates has been saying, for having "next-waritis". We must be as prepared to take on rag-tag bands of terrorists as we are to take on a major world power such as Russia which may interpret our preoccupation with the so-called "war on terror" as a strategic weakness they can take advantage of. The choice between being prepared to fight a low-intensity conflict versus a major war is a false one; we must be prepared for both. And so in answer to the imbecile Gates I say: guess what, buckaroo? That next war you spoke so derisively about? It is happening NOW...

P.S. - Imagine if Georgia, as had been contemplated, were a part of NATO? If I were the USAF, I would be lobbying to send F-22s somewhere nearby. Don't forget that the Georgians have/had 2,000 of their troops in Iraq. They put their military where their mouth is. Are we prepared to do the same for them?
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DarthAmerica
PostPosted: Aug 11, 2008 - 08:38 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Calm down and don't be so impulsive. I assure you the number of F-22's or any other fighter in the USAF would have made no difference in this equation. The Russians choose Georgia for a reason. Proximity and purpose. The purpose was to reassert for those who have forgotten what territory Russia considers sacrosanct and feelings about Serbia and BMD. Moreover, there is more to this story than meets the eye. The Georgians would not have attacked SO unless they felt Russia would tolerate it. Also, the size of the attacking force would not have escaped the notice of US Intelligence WELL IN ADVANCE. I knew about it just based on my own research long ago...

http://strategypage.com/militaryforums/30-97935.aspx

...Look at the dates in the post. If I could deduce that independently. Imagine what others applying resources of governments knew. Militarily, this isn't an indictment of too few Raptors. It's an indictment of too few Soldiers and Marines. All the Raptors in the world would not have saved SO, nor will they save Abkhazia or the ultimate target which is regime change of Georgia. I hate to say it because I've learned to respect the Georgians, EXCEPT IN THE DFAC!!! I hope I'm wrong this time and I wish the answer was as simple as more Raptors. Unfortunately it isn't the case.


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Obamanite
PostPosted: Aug 11, 2008 - 09:17 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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I'm not saying more Raptors would have deterred the Russians from staging an invasion or pursuing regime change. I'm saying less Raptors, rather than more, in short-sighted pursuit of "winning" low-intensity conflicts such as Iraq and Afghanistan may put us in a position in the future we may come to regret. I think if Russia is allowed to run runshod over Georgia without a credible response by NATO, this will only embolden them vis-a-vis Ukraine, Serbia and former satellite nations that are now our allies. Thus, we cannot afford to neglect our "conventional" capabilities as a deterrent against Russia's latent (for now) expansionist designs. As I've said, what is troubling about Russia today is that they have developed an inferiority complex as a result of being a shadow of the former empire they once were. That Russia has embraced a tyrant like Putin, much like Germany did Hitler, is enough evidence of that. What makes them even scarier is that their abundant natural resources like natural gas and oil have given them the economic wherewithal to pursue their expansionist designs, something the Soviet Union lacked (not the resources themselves, but rather the capacity to exploit them). Russia must know that the U.S. will not neglect its conventional capabilities for the sake of achieving the near-term objective of pursing low-intensity conflicts. A strong USAF and USN alongside an Army with potent mechanized divisions are as indispensible today as they were at the height of the Cold War.

Further, I disagree with this idea that airpower could not have made a difference in the Georgia conflict, in the event we would have decided to intervene (the fact that Georgia "started it" makes it unlikely that we would, not to mention the danger of it escalating beyond control). Believe you me, part of the reason that Russia is clobbering Georgia right now is because they have achieved air superiority. Without it, they would not be bombing the airport on the outskirts of Tbilisi, the capital itself, numerous military installations, and civilian as well as military infrastructure, all of which is designed to pursue, as you have said, the ultimate goal of "regime change" in Georgia. One squadron, perhaps two, of Raptors would put a stop to that real quick. Once the Raptors established air supremacy, U.S. ground attack fighters and bombers could decimate advancing Soviet, sorry, Russian armor (pictures of long columns of Russian tanks in roads have spurred fantasies of what a few well-placed CBU-105s could do to them). Indeed, U.S. and NATO ground forces would never need to engage the Russians in order to help Georgia effectively defend itself, and we wouldn't be doing anything different in Georgia than what the old Soviet Union did in Korea and Vietnam. I am of two minds about it all: on the one hand I recognize the danger for escalation in the prospective involvement of U.S. airpower in the Georgia conflict; on the other hand, the Russians need to pay a price for their disproportionate response to Georgia's ill-fated foray into SO. If the latter does not happen, the Russians will be emboldened to pursue military action on an even greater scale in the future (think Ukraine), an eventuality we can ill-afford.
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biffbutkus
PostPosted: Aug 11, 2008 - 02:35 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Obamanite wrote:
As I've been saying for years, and have made clear on this forum, far more than China, Russia represents a clear and present danger for the United States and the West (I've been right about the Russians as I am now about the F-35 Flying Turd). If nothing else, Russia's disproportionate aggression against Georgia - which admittedly badly miscalculated its forway into South Ossetia - makes clear Russia's plans to consolidate and expand its power. It is a blessing in disguise because we know now, and not too late, that we cannot stop production of the F-22 at only 183 examples. It also makes clear that the USAF and the USN have been right all along, contrary to what that idiot Gates has been saying, for having "next-waritis". We must be as prepared to take on rag-tag bands of terrorists as we are to take on a major world power such as Russia which may interpret our preoccupation with the so-called "war on terror" as a strategic weakness they can take advantage of. The choice between being prepared to fight a low-intensity conflict versus a major war is a false one; we must be prepared for both. And so in answer to the imbecile Gates I say: guess what, buckaroo? That next war you spoke so derisively about? It is happening NOW...

P.S. - Imagine if Georgia, as had been contemplated, were a part of NATO? If I were the USAF, I would be lobbying to send F-22s somewhere nearby. Don't forget that the Georgians have/had 2,000 of their troops in Iraq. They put their military where their mouth is. Are we prepared to do the same for them?


While I think you are pretty much wrong about the F35, I'm in total agreement about the New Soviet Union - they are trouble on the horizon. Had Georgia been a part of NATO we could be involved in some serious muck....

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DarthAmerica
PostPosted: Aug 11, 2008 - 03:09 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Obamanite wrote:
One squadron, perhaps two, of Raptors would put a stop to that real quick. Once the Raptors established air supremacy, U.S. ground attack fighters and bombers could decimate advancing Soviet, sorry, Russian armor (pictures of long columns of Russian tanks in roads have spurred fantasies of what a few well-placed CBU-105s could do to them).


I'm sorry but that's just not how it works. One or two squadrons of Raptors would cause the Russians quite a bit of pain and suffering. But they could not stop the assault. In fact, the Russians would retaliate in very significant ways and perhaps against the Raptors themselves directly. Certainly against critical regional U.S. NATO military infrastructure. In short things could get wildly out of control and frankly, SO isn't worth it. Especially considering other priorities and the circumstances. We will retaliate. But not this way. IN fact this is actually Russia's response to Kosovo and the European BMD systems. We will hit back but the time isn't right for a direct fight IMV. Just as the Russians didn't rush into a response to Kosovar independence, we can not rush into our response. However, and I hope all the EU fans are paying attention. Russia knows militarily that you are incapable of stopping her without the USA on any level and they are demonstrating that.

We will hit back later or perhaps this is something far greater and we will see in few months why. One thing is absolutely certain. We knew what the Georgians were going to do, we did not stop it. We also knew how the Russians would react. Considering that, the potential for something greater is high. I just hope a lot of Georgians aren't dying for nothing.

Anyway, militarily, we are looking at about 150 Su-27's and Mig-29's plus another 150 or so Su-24's and Su-25's and about 100 Attack Helos. So any Ideal of injecting F-22's into the mix better not be half cocked. This is a fight that would require a substantial amount of the USAF/USN air superiority assets and support systems. If it was limited to just protecting Georgia and not violating Russian airspace due to political constraints then this would be a very tough task this close to Russia. And without ground forces IT ABSOLUTELY WOULD NOT SAVE GEORGIA. It would be a side show at best. This is an Army fight and we just don't have the forces available for that right now.

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Obamanite
PostPosted: Aug 11, 2008 - 04:16 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Think of Afghanistan when the Soviet Union was there. What broke the SU's back was the Stinger. Once they could no longer assault Afghan forces with impunity from the air, once they no longer had air superiority, it gave Afghan ground forces a freedom of movement they did not previously enjoy. If Russia continues its assault, I say that, at the very minimum, give the Georgians a crash course on the Patriot and funnel a few units to them. Once Russian SUs and Migs begin falling from the sky, it becomes a completely different ball game. It may not give SO back to Georgia, but it will safeguard the latter's current territorial integrity as well as save its democratically elected government. I think sometimes people underestimate the importance of air power and the critical role air superiority plays in conventional engagements.
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J.J.
PostPosted: Aug 11, 2008 - 11:28 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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The Stinger factor in Afghanistan is well known to the public from the history books. But sorry! This topic sounds like only political. OEF main combat phase is another story. And at least currently, there are some different conditions at Bagram AB, Afghanistan.
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PostPosted: Aug 12, 2008 - 04:42 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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I wonder what Georgia's true motives are for quite possibly starting this conflict (which they obviously can't win without outside assistance). They certainly know how to manipulate the media see http://russia-insider.livejournal.com/25329.html
That said, I don't know what the U.S. could do in this situation. I have to agree with DarthAmerica and others have already said. Airpower is fine, but it won't win this conflict, only boots on the ground will do that. And with our armed forces already stretched thin between Afghanistan and Iraq (which was a complete waste of time, resources, and manpower - we should have never got involved in Iraq, but don't get me started). Evil or Very Mad
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end
PostPosted: Aug 12, 2008 - 06:08 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Where is our unbeatable unmatchable F-22? Georgia freedom needs you!

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DarthAmerica
PostPosted: Aug 12, 2008 - 06:32 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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end wrote:
Where is our unbeatable unmatchable F-22? Georgia freedom needs you!


No, where are an additional 200,000 US ground combat troops backed by at least 50,000 deployable self sustaining EU troops. That is what is lacking. Not fighters which we have in abundance to deal with the Russian air force committed to this.

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bandit66
PostPosted: Aug 12, 2008 - 06:45 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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lol this forum is fo fun sometimes!!! weve got obamas sextoy over here preaching his politics and georgia calling for f-22 help!!!!!
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StolichnayaStrafer
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What about Southern Ossetia? If it would rather be reunified with Northern Ossetia, shouldn't they have the right to do so? Not that I support any Russian aggression, but Georgia pulled the trigger on Southern Ossetia first. After the breakup of the Soviet Union, some countries stayed with Russia while most left. However, there are some that might prefer to go back to their old ways and inclusion with Russia. Supposedly Russia stopped its attacks, while Georgia claims things are still going on. Hopefully the big picture will become clearer soon, eh?

Either way, we certainly don't need to stick our noses in there right now- let the UN, NATO, or somebody else get involved and let us sit one out for a change!!! Idea

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Obamanite
PostPosted: Aug 12, 2008 - 09:14 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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DarthAmerica wrote:
end wrote:
Where is our unbeatable unmatchable F-22? Georgia freedom needs you!


No, where are an additional 200,000 US ground combat troops backed by at least 50,000 deployable self sustaining EU troops. That is what is lacking. Not fighters which we have in abundance to deal with the Russian air force committed to this.

-DA


Ground troops would NOT have been necessary to allow the Georgians to mount an effective response. Read below:

Quote:
Russian jets, unchallenged, sow terror among Georgian troops

By Tom Lasseter, McClatchy Newspapers
Mon Aug 11, 6:02 PM ET

TIRDZNISI, Georgia — The Russian fighter jet screamed low to the earth and peeled off so quickly that the bomb wasn't visible until it hit the ground. The explosion shook everything and sent a shower of debris flying over the head of a young Georgian soldier.

The soldier, lying against an embankment on the side of the road, shouted in a panicked voice for everyone to stay still. His palms were flat on the dirt in front of him. "It's Russian MiGs," the soldier said, his eyes wide.

For three days, Russian jets and bombers have unleashed a massive aerial campaign against Georgian forces that, more than anything, dramatically changed the war's direction.

Until Russian jets showed up, Georgian tanks and infantry looked to be on their way to defeating rebel forces in Tskhinvali, the capital of the breakaway province of South Ossetia .

But Georgia's ground troops couldn't do much against Russian aircraft, whose repeated bombing runs drove them from Tskhinvali on Sunday and chased them along the road toward the town of Gori. In the early morning hours Tuesday, it suddenly seemed possible that all that remained of the war was for the Russians to brush past Gori into Tbilisi, Georgia's capital.

At first, news of Russia's aerial attacks came in fragments. An airfield was hit, a radar station demolished. But by Monday, as bombs fell among the withdrawing Georgian forces, it was only too clear what the Russians had been up to.

The early strikes had made it impossible for Georgians, who in the war's first day had shot down four Russian aircraft, to mount an effective response. Now Russian jets could dominate the skies.

Col. Gen. Anatoly Nagovitsin , the deputy head of the Russian military's general staff, put it bluntly: "I can report on Russian supremacy in the airspace. Georgian aircraft stopped flying."

Outside Tskhinvali, Georgian soldiers huddled beneath trees and bridges, trying to stay out of the line of sight of passing Russian jets. In addition to military trucks, troops were being moved around in civilian buses and vans. In Gori, soldiers worked out of a university building.

They had to hide; there was no answer to the Su-25 fighter jets, TU-22 bombers and others streaking nearby, looking for prey.

"We have good artillery, but not good antiaircraft systems," said Sgt. Ucha Chulukhadze , a Georgian soldier who was standing in a small shelter on the side of the road.
To speak with a reporter, he and other soldiers insisted on walking across the street, where there was shade and they'd be less visible.

The soldiers looked tired and unsure what would happen next.

"If no one stops them"— the Russians— "then they will do worse here than what they did in Chechnya," said Eldar Durglishnti, a reservist who'd been called up for the fighting.

When a car load of journalists started to leave, one of the soldiers walked up to the window with a plea: Call the Red Cross and tell it that he was getting cell phone calls from soldiers who were stuck in bunkers in Tskhinvali.

A group of Georgian soldiers who were standing next to a truck down the road, its tires flat, heard the boom of an airstrike in the distance and scrambled to take cover.

"It's coming again," one of them hollered, looking at the sky.

Later in the afternoon, a Georgian sergeant was sitting on a curbside in Gori, recounting what he'd seen Sunday in Tskhinvali before his unit retreated. Moving his hand through the air like a plane, he mimicked the sound of bombs falling.

"There people were dying," said the soldier, who gave only his first name, Dato. "They dropped bombs everywhere . . . they destroyed us."

A group of people had gathered at the hospital across the street, many of them female soldiers, to check the lists of wounded and dead posted on a wall. Tracing the names with their fingers, the women spoke in low voices.

When a soldier hobbled up, his hand bandaged, a friend looked back and explained, "he was shot," which meant that he'd heal to fight another day.

Those who were caught by the bombs of Russian jets wouldn't be seen again.

An ambulance doctor, Levan Makashvili, was reading a newspaper in the hospital's parking lot and trying to keep his mind off the war for a few moments.

The aftermath of the bombings, he said, was terrible.

"The ones with head wounds," he said in a matter-of-fact tone, "they frequently die."


I'm sorry, DA, but you represent the old mindset that proposes only boots on the ground can dictate the course of a conflict and have learned nothing from Dessert Storm and the Balkans conflict. U.S. air power, or at the very least effective Georgian air defense, could have turned the tide in favor of the Georgians, and would have humiliated the Russians as they should have been to prevent them from getting any ideas about future plans to consolidate and expand their influence. As McCain has argued, Putin intends nothing less than the resurgence of the Russian empire. Their crushing of Georgian forces has now emboldened such a quest. As Bill Kristol - that wacky Neocon of whom I am ordinarily not fond - recently wrote in the NY Times:

"When the “civilized world” expostulated with Russia about Georgia in 1924, the Soviet regime was still weak. In Germany, Hitler was in jail. Only 16 years later, Britain stood virtually alone against a Nazi-Soviet axis. Is it not true today, as it was in the 1920s and ’30s, that delay and irresolution on the part of the democracies simply invite future threats and graver dangers?"

You can rest assured that massed armor formations such as those Russia built up would have been sitting ducks against U.S. air power. And a couple of F-22 Raptor squadrons, backed up by a couple of Patriot batteries and ground units equipped with Stingers, would have obliterated any Russian air assault. Russia needed to get spanked now, not later. Now, we've got to watch out for Ukraine, next in Russia's radar screet of former Soviet satellites which need to be "punished".

Now, regarding what I wrote earlier about an increased push for major conventional hardware such as the F-22, there is this:

Quote:
Georgia Conflict Could Revive Big Military Spending, Analyst Says

By Christopher Hinton

NEW YORK (Dow Jones) -- A prolonged conflict in southwest Asia between Russia and Georgia could eventually benefit military contractors that build heavy weapon systems such as Lockheed Martin and Boeing Co., one analyst said Monday.

"No less than the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1978, [the] events of the past several days are a bell-ringer for defense stocks," said Paul Nisbet, an analyst with JSA Research, an aerospace equity research firm. "We strongly urge purchase of aerospace/defense issues, a sector which has declined with the broad market since the start of the year."

Heavy weapon systems, such as the F-22 Raptor being built by Lockheed (LMT) and Boeing (BA), along with ships, tanks and artillery, will be in higher demand as the U.S. positions itself to check the growing challenges posed by Russia and China, Nisbet wrote in an industry note.


The U.S. will get more, a lot more than 183 F-22s...
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StolichnayaStrafer
PostPosted: Aug 12, 2008 - 09:46 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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I heard that Georgian air defenses shot down something like 10 aircraft, possibly including a TU-22. Also that Russia confirmed the loss of 3 SU-25s.

Anybody got some solid info on aircraft downings? No mention of Georgian aircraft so far, except about them using SU-25s in their attack as well. The only film clip I've seen(if indeed from the area) were of an SU-25 firing a heap of 57mm rockets and some MI-24s flying around, the nationalities not clearly visible at the time.

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Obamanite
PostPosted: Aug 12, 2008 - 10:06 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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StolichnayaStrafer wrote:
I heard that Georgian air defenses shot down something like 10 aircraft, possibly including a TU-22. Also that Russia confirmed the loss of 3 SU-25s.

Anybody got some solid info on aircraft downings? No mention of Georgian aircraft so far, except about them using SU-25s in their attack as well. The only film clip I've seen(if indeed from the area) were of an SU-25 firing a heap of 57mm rockets and some MI-24s flying around, the nationalities not clearly visible at the time.


You heard right. Or rather, Georgia claimed 10 aircraft, Russia claimed four, including one TU-22. From AvWeek:

Quote:
Georgia Strikes Back With Air Defenses

Aug 11, 2008
By David A. Fulghum and Douglas Barrie

If the land war in Georgia so far seems to be going decidedly in favor of the Russian army and navy, the Georgians seem to be racking up a lopsided score with their air defenses.

Over the weekend, the Russians made a successful advance on land through South Ossetia to the outskirts of the Georgian east-west transportation hub of Gori. There also was a one-sided naval battle - that resulted in the sinking of a Georgian gunboat - in the Black Sea off the coast of the second breakaway enclave of Abkhazia.

However, Georgian air defenses appear to be taking a steady toll on Russian aircraft. Russia has admitted to losing a total of four aircraft (the Georgians claim 10) in the conflict. So far they've admitted to the destruction of three Su-25 Frogfoot strike aircraft and a Tu-22M3 Backfire bomber that was flying a reconnaissance mission.

Photos from the combat area show the wreck of the Tu-22 and a Frogfoot as well as a picture of the Backfire pilot in a Georgian hospital. The pilot was Col. Igor Zinov, a 50 year-old Tu-22M3 instructor pilot stationed at the Russian Flight Test Center at Akhtubinsk. (See Aviation Week's defense photo gallery for photos.)

"Ergo, the Russians are using their A-Team, as expected," a U.S. analyst says.

Other analysts say the Georgians are probably operating the SA-11 Buk-M1 (low-to-high altitude) and the (low-to-medium altitude) Tor-1M mobile air defense missile systems.

"The Russians have gone to great lengths to try and implicate the Ukraine in the Russian Air Force losses, even going as far as to suggest that an SA-5 sold to the Georgians by the Ukraine was responsible for the Backfire loss," a second U.S. analyst says. "That's clearly not the case, but shows the Russian attempt to bring the Ukraine into the periphery of this event by implication, and to attempt to explain how one of their premier long-range attack assets could have been shot down so easily.

"The Russian press has been making lots of noise about the BUK and TOR systems, and I would say that the BUK is the most likely culprit for all of these aircraft losses," the analyst says. "If so, it points out a major flaw in the Russian plan - not gaining [and] maintaining pure air superiority [and] dominance over the battlespace by taking out the Georgian air defenses and air defense network before they went into the conflict."

Russian-built and designed air defenses are apparently exploitable, as was shown in the Israeli Air Force's total shut down of Syrian air defenses prior to bombing a suspected nuclear site. But Russia apparently has yet to apply the digital keys to unlock the Georgians' network.

During the months before the conflict, the Russians claimed to have shot down several Hermes 450 UAVs (made by Israeli-based Elbit) with fighter aircraft stationed at least temporarily in South Ossetia.

The Russians say they shot down a Georgian Frogfoot outside the town of Eredvi in South Ossetia today. The Russians - in a stunning piece of irony - have twice bombed the Su-25 Frogfoot manufacturing plant on the outskirts of the Georgian capital of Tbilisi.

So if the Georgians over-estimated their ground forces, "it appears that the Russians underestimated the Georgian air defense abilities in this conflict, and have paid the price," the second U.S. analyst says.

Georgia's foreign minister, Eka Tkeshelashvili, and deputy interior minister, Eka Zguladze, will be in Brussels tomorrow for emergency talks at NATO headquarters. The two officials will meet with NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, and address the North Atlantic Council.


Unfortunately, AvWeek has rather overstated Georgian air defense successes. They exacted a toll, but not enough of one to constitute a "lopsided score," if for no better reason than that Georgia stopped flying altogether soon after the conflict started. Also, four, at most 10 aircraft downed out of hundreds if not thousands of sorties flown by the Russians hardly amounts to a successful air defense of Georgian territory. In other words, Russia may not have achieved air supremacy, but they deffinitely had air superiority.
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