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geogen wrote:

Ob, thanks for posting this article.

The one thing the religious-F-35 absolutists seem to ignore is that over the next 25 yrs there will be MANY alternative high-tech/high-capability proposals and developments which can jointly compete very well with future F-35 foreign sales. These will affect any LM/DoD's assumed monopoly re: an ultimate 4,000 total sales number.

Why all the rhetoric? Support for the f-35 is capabilities based. Capabilities that have been proven on other platforms. I don't know anybody credible for suggesting that the f-35 will be the end-all be-all of fighter aircraft. Moreover no one is suggesting that other manufacturers will not develop competitive products. However the f-35 does have a lead over other planes at this point. Technologically and temporarily it will arrive first. It will also receive block upgrades over its lifespan in order to remain competitive.

There's also saying that a bird in the hand is worth more than a bird in the Bush. The f-35, is a bird in the hand for Allied air forces right now. A joint South Korean development will take 10 years to field at the earliest. And that's at the prototype stage. Initial operation capability would take years more. By that time latter years f-35 will be significantly different than today's aircraft. Also, follow on aircraft will be in development at that point.

Myself I don't think the development of a new fighter from a foreign manufacturer threatens the chances of sales for the f-35. Especially since a lot of users will have a vested interest in keeping it up-to-date.

Having said that I have the utmost respect for SAAB and their products. I'm sure whatever aircraft they decide to manufacture next will be magnificent. However I think it's a bit of a stretch to assume it would be superior to f-35.

-- DarthAmerica

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DA, my 'rhetoric' was only aimed I guess, in good jest, at those who are faithfully adamant of a company line dream figure of 4,000 total F-35 unit sales by 2035. No insult, just making the point of the phenomenon of select few enthusiasts who are faithful in the absolute, fixed, long-term numbers. (Yes, call me a skeptic (since about 2001) and yes call me a proponent of other alternatives (from about the same 2001 timeframe)). But I still respect the F-35 and support it's best feasible, economical and potency outcome (so I confirm I'm not a basher).

I might differ however, in that SAAB and Korean industry might be able to produce a valid flying prototype in about 5 yrs after signing. Recall, they are not necessarily talking about a superior VLO design.

Note also: the Korean leadership is apparently not wishing to deploy VLO until others in region do so themselves (which is actually something admirable and pro-active for regional de-escalation).

If need be, I would think Korean leadership would find the best available counter to any future superior adversarial tech, no?

But personally, I'd wager on the F-50 ----> F-50XL progression and F-15K block III track (for next 10 yrs at least).

They can always request the latest refined block F-35 in future, if need be?

geogen wrote:

I might differ however, in that SAAB and Korean industry might be able to produce a valid flying prototype in about 5 yrs after signing. Recall, they are not necessarily talking about a superior VLO design.[/quote ]

5 years is certainly possible, but not likely in my opinion. Considering the technologies, that's a lot of research and development.

Quote:

Note also: the Korean leadership is apparently not wishing to deploy VLO until others in region do so themselves (which is actually something admirable and pro-active for regional de-escalation).

Humorous, the Korean to English translation is give us a better deal on f-35.

Quote:

If need be, I would think Korean leadership would find the best available counter to any future superior adversarial tech, no?

Again, Korean to English, f-35. Although through about 2025, it's unlikely any threat in the region would exceed the performance of their strike Eagles. Any SU-27 derivative no matter how advanced electronically, is still limited to about the physical capabilities of the F-15. They are remarkably similar aircraft. Since the South Koreans and the Americans Defense avionics industries have a considerable lead in electronics technology, the 15 is likely to retain its edge.

[/quote ]They can always request the latest refined block F-35 in future, if need be?

which in all likelihood is what they're going to do. Man tactical combat aviation is a very critical point right now. It's becoming increasingly risky to invest in the technology. This market saturation, economies of scale and newer technologies coming on line.

It is not to say that the Swedish and the Koreans couldn't collaborate on a fighter program. It's just that, the investment would be considerable. Considering the Swedish for aircraft design and cut me and mastery of robotics and automation. I'd be much more interested in seeing what they could develop in the unmanned aerial vehicle domain. Both countries could certainly combine their talents to make a very capable ucav. Admittedly though, COMSEC and infrastructure could limit the potential for a while and place a heavy burden on the automation.

-- DA

Newbie Joined: Jun 04, 2007 Posts: 9 Status: Offline

Saab has worked on stealth tech for a long time. If there's a customer who want something along the lines of the KF-X they can without a doubt build it. Technically and financially Saab got the capability to accept a large partnership role. Europe's largest industrial holding company is backing Saab so if there's another request to build and co-finance a new fighter like the request by the Swedish government then Saab can do it. Probably at a decent price as well. Also expect it to be a partnership with General Electric and other US corps. But obviously this proposal to South Korea is a very special case. Very few countries can even consider such a joint venture for a number of reasons.

Even before Saab flew the Gripen (which already does incorporate a number of internal and external design elements in order to reduce radar and IR signatures) they ran demonstrators on various flying LO/VLO solutions. Later with the more hands on experience from the Sharc and Filur demonstrators (such as experience with internal bay release, autonomous flight and VLO design) led Saab to get a forward position on the Neuron project. Some of it described here:

Quote:

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=awst&id=news/aw071408p1.xml&headline=European%20UCAVs%20Take%20Shape

A special emphasis has been placed on LO technologies. Although some team partners, such as Dassault and Saab, have already dabbled in low-observable shaping and materials - including applications on combat aircraft - Neuron is aiming at a level of stealth not attempted before in continental Europe. In part, it was only when development started that engineers realized how every design choice can impact stealthiness. Eight of the 13 technology efforts were related to radar and infrared low-observability.

For instance, Saab has built a model of the front forward-fuselage and the landing gear door for measurement at the outdoor radar cross-section facility in Linkoping. The emitter is about 500 meters from the test specimen and therefore provides good radar return data, Dussaugey indicates.

[...]

They will then move to Sweden, for LO trials and weapons release.

geogen wrote:

Ob, thanks for posting this article.

The one thing the religious-F-35 absolutists seem to ignore is that over the next 25 yrs there will be MANY alternative high-tech/high-capability proposals and developments which can jointly compete very well with future F-35 foreign sales. These will affect any LM/DoD's assumed monopoly re: an ultimate 4,000 total sales number.

That is, many changes in assessed variables and new competition will surely affect total F-35 sales over the next 20-25 yrs. Nothing currently can be absolutely estimated/locked in, over the next 20+ yrs.

Given my particular support and respect for SAAB in past and in future accordingly, I'd have to wish them well with a superior alternative if it comes to pass. And IMO, if anyone can make a more economical, sufficient alternative co-developed defense need (at least for the next 10 yrs) it would be Swedish.

I've even predicted that India would choose advanced Gripen II or Super Hornet in their Mig-21 replacement.

Either way, SK deserves a superior self-defense posture imo, until the peninsula and all Asia can achieve a comprehensive non-aggression pact and arms-control.

Would you like to explain what types are likely to compete with the F-35 in the next 20-25 years???? Wink

Corsair,

Believe you me, if we could predict the weather even 1 week out, we could earn pretty good respect for our prediction skills.

It's truly so hard to predict what precise competitive global military technology (and/or tactics) will exist in 20-25 yrs?

geogen wrote:

Corsair,

Believe you me, if we could predict the weather even 1 week out, we could earn pretty good respect for our prediction skills.

It's truly so hard to predict what precise competitive global military technology (and/or tactics) will exist in 20-25 yrs?

Well, modern jet fighters take decades to develope and build. So, if they don't start today its not likely we would see many if any within the 20-25 year time table given. Especially, considering the technology needed to compete with 5th Generation Types like the F-22 and F-35!

Enthusiast Joined: Jun 09, 2006 Posts: 37 Status: Offline

I don´t think it would take 20 years to develop as SAAB apparently would use technology from Gripen NG/Neuron programme to reduce risk. That would save a lot of time and still be a cutting edge system.

Click on the picture:

I guess it would be something between F-22 and F-35 in air to air capability (at much lower cost)...but just a guess. Laughing

Edit: Besides above two engine concept there are also a single engine version on the drawing board.

Edit 2: Click on the pictures!

Corsair1963 wrote:

geogen wrote:

Corsair,

Believe you me, if we could predict the weather even 1 week out, we could earn pretty good respect for our prediction skills.

It's truly so hard to predict what precise competitive global military technology (and/or tactics) will exist in 20-25 yrs?

Well, modern jet fighters take decades to develope and build. So, if they don't start today its not likely we would see many if any within the 20-25 year time table given. Especially, considering the technology needed to compete with 5th Generation Types like the F-22 and F-35!

I tend to agree with 10 to 15 years being the earliest if they start from scratch and that assumes things work very smoothly. If it's supposed to be a F-35 equivalent that is a very ambitious goal. At least as big of a project as the Super Hornet. AT LEAST.

-DA

Caprice wrote:

I don´t think it would take 20 years to develop as SAAB apparently would use technology from Gripen NG/Neuron programme to reduce risk. That would save a lot of time and still be a cutting edge system.

I guess it would be something between F-22 and F-35 in air to air capability (at much lower cost)...but just a guess. Laughing

The picture is way out of focus.............SAAB could clearly develope a 5th Generation but just like the Gripen it would need alot of help from other Western Counties like the UK and US for example (others too) Personally, I doubt the US would give the Stealth Technology needed for SAAB to even hope of compete with its own 5th Generation Fighters. While its possible for SAB to do it without outside help. It would take more money than SAAB could dream of...........Remember, the current SAF can only afford a small number of JAS-39's many of which will be rebuilds of older JAS-39A/B's. If, its lucky it may get some JAS-39E/F's (i.e. Next Generation) Gripens. If, its real lucky. Sorry, but any super SAAB 5th Generation Fighter is likely just a dream. To bad but reality is reality..... Sad

Enthusiast Joined: Jun 09, 2006 Posts: 37 Status: Offline

Click on the pictures.

Of course SAAB would need external help as with Gripen, with engines and some avionics for example. Regarding stealth they have significant experience from Neuron programme and own research programmes etc., so I don´t think that would be a impossible task.

And it would only be feasible economily if there is a outside partnership as with all other future fighter manufacturers.

Caprice wrote:

Click on the pictures.

Of course SAAB would need external help as with Gripen, with engines and some avionics for example. Regarding stealth they have significant experience from Neuron programme and own research programmes etc., so I don´t think that would be a impossible task.

Who would give SAAB help and on what scale? Really, SAAB should have joined the JSF or Typhoon Programs years ago......The point isn't that is not possible. Just extremely unlikely. Which, is nothing against SAAB.........its a great company and highly respected. At least by me........ Very Happy

Enthusiast Joined: Jun 09, 2006 Posts: 37 Status: Offline

I agree, it´s not likely but not impossible either. Smile

Plus as others here have said already, there will not only be US fighter on the market in the future (not that I don´t like them), for one reason or another.

This concept seems to grasp a nice niche with "only" AA weapons internal and UCAVS for the high risk strikes.

Using Gripen tech as a skeleton and build a stealth fighter around it may be a way to go - without the need to do massive research programmes comparable with JSF etc., who knows?

Corsair1963 wrote:

I guess it would be something between F-22 and F-35 in air to air capability (at much lower cost)...but just a guess. Laughing

I doubt it. There is simply too much content in the F-35 which they won't be able to match. They'll probably be able to make it lighter, a tad faster and a little more agile if they don't care about matching the F-35's range or its ability to carry bulky A2G stores internally. All it all, it'll be more A2A focused and more mission limited, probably half a step behind in RCS reduction and in sensors. It'll be maybe 10% faster and have Eurocanard level agility for what it's worth. All in all, it should be between a Rafale and an F-35A in terms of A2A, with some light duty A2G capability (ala F-5 Freedom fighter) at the expense of stealth.

Is that worth $10~20 billion upfront and about $75 million an airframe? From an economics and capability standpoint, heck no. But countries built stuff for more than these -- take the Rafale or Gripen for instance. Without the program there won't be an military aviation infrastructure left in Sweden or France. And, that is more important than having the best aircraft at the best price to these countries.

Enthusiast Joined: Jun 09, 2006 Posts: 37 Status: Offline

dwightlooi, that was my quote not Corsair1963.

Isn´t it hard to say for sure today what capabilities F-35 will have in ten years from now, some of the planned stuff may not be implemented...and are every aircraftsystem non american automaticly inferior? Of course other counties don´t have the financial resources so they must sometimes find other ways witch may, or may not, be on the same level in the end.

Remember a "story" told when swedish pilots talked with US ditto about data links in the beginning and got the polite answer: "interesting system, but we don´t need that".

Corsair1963 (forgot to answer in my last post), as dwightlooi has said, had SAAB joined F-35, that would probably have killed them off.

Guess South Korea is somewhat in the same position now - join the F-35 project and manufacture some parts (if they get the contracts) witch will drain their own aircraft industry or partner with someone else and develop a competing solution, even if the end result is 90-95% of F-35 capability (witch is debatable) and preserve their industry? Not sure it will cost $20 billion and $75million/airframe either if they do as mentioned above.

Regarding joining the Typhoon programme, I think SAAB today is glad they didn´t...

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