F-16 Reference
5th Gen Fighters
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Obamanite
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Posted: Jul 03, 2008 - 03:25 AM
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Interesting article coming from Aviation Week:
Quote:
Dutch Refuse To Consider Super Hornet
The Netherlands defense ministry refuses to include Boeing's F/A-18E/F Super Hornet in an evaluation of potential candidates for its next-generation fighter requirement.
Lockheed Martin's F-22 Raptor also will not be considered, despite a direct request from the country's Parliament to include both U.S. fighters in an evaluation of potential alternatives to the Lockheed Martin F-35A Joint Strike Fighter (JSF).
The Dutch appeared to be firmly committed to the F-35A ever since they joined the JSF System Development & Demonstration program as a Level 2 partner in 2002. But recently there has been growing concern, particularly among left-wing parties in the Parliament, about perceived cost overruns.
In May, Parliament called for the addition of the Super Hornet, Raptor and Sweden's Saab Gripen Next Generation to the shortlist of JSF alternatives. The request was part of a compromise that enabled the defense ministry to proceed with a plan to order two F-35A aircraft for participation in the F-35 Initial Operational Test & Evaluation that starts in 2011.
According to Jack de Vries, the Dutch state secretary for defense procurement, the F/A-18E/F had been considered as a candidate in 2001-2002 but was at that time deselected because of limitations in range, self-protection and sensors. "The twin-engined jet is also relatively big and heavy, so that it does not fit inside our NATO-standard F-16 hardened aircraft shelters; also, its through-life cost is relatively high," says de Vries, who predicts that these considerations will also play a role in Denmark, which has the same size shelters as the Netherlands.
Boeing recently entered the Super Hornet as a late-entry contender for the Danish fighter requirement, competing against the F-35A and the Gripen Next-Generation.
In a June 27 letter to Parliament, de Vries suggests that while Australia and the U.S. Navy are ordering Super Hornets, they are doing so "until the JSF will be available in sufficient numbers." He states that the Dutch have no need for an interim solution as they plan to buy the F-35 early.
"Based on how Americans and Australians regard the Super Hornet in relation to JSF, and based on the results of our evaluation in 2002, the F/A-18E/F cannot be considered as a relevant option for F-16 replacement in our country," de Vries says.
As for the F-22, de Vries points out that the aircraft is "much bigger and heavier than the JSF and requires two engines, resulting in considerably higher operating and through-life costs." The acquisition cost per aircraft would also be much higher, he says, while there is a U.S. ban on exporting the F-22 "even to friendly allies."
The defense ministry will, however, consider the Gripen Next Generation as an alternative option, alongside the three existing alternatives (the Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 3, Dassault Rafale Standard F4 and Lockheed Martin Advanced (Block 60+) F-16E/F), de Vries says.
"In our previous evaluation, the Saab Gripen was deselected because it was found to have considerable shortcomings in range, armament, self-protection, interoperability and sensors," de Vries says.
"Saab has recently announced that a new version of Gripen is being developed, Gripen Next Generation, information on which so far is limited to what has been published in open sources. We will investigate this Next Generation variant in the coming months, particularly to assess the developments compared with the previous Gripen version. To do this, we need cooperation from the manufacturer, and we have contacted the company to ask for the information required."
De Vries says that provided the Gripen Next Generation meets the minimum requirements, it will be reviewed using the latest insights.
The new evaluation will be performed by the defense ministry with help from independent analysts from Dutch defense research institute TNO Defense, Security and Safety; the country's National Aerospace Laboratory NLR; and RAND Europe.
Quite apart from the opinions being bandied about on this forum, if I am going to trust anyone's judgment regarding the F-35 even more than LM or the U.S. goverment, it is that of the nations which could, if they wanted to, pursue other alternatives at little to no political or economic cost to them. Moreover, one would expect the Dutch defense ministry to know far more about the F-35's capabilities than, say, ELP or LO. As such, this strikes me as yet one more vote of confidence for the F-35. In particular, the following statements are significant:
"According to Jack de Vries, the Dutch state secretary for defense procurement, the F/A-18E/F had been considered as a candidate in 2001-2002 but was at that time deselected because of limitations in range, self-protection and sensors. 'The twin-engined jet is also relatively big and heavy, so that it does not fit inside our NATO-standard F-16 hardened aircraft shelters; also, its through-life cost is relatively high,' says de Vries, who predicts that these considerations will also play a role in Denmark, which has the same size shelters as the Netherlands."
Those who would propose buying more Super Hornets in lieu of the F-35C have always struck me as delusional. The SH is simply not in the same class as the F-35 "in range, self-protection and sensors." Even more delusional are those who advocate for the F-16E/F in favor of the F-35A. With the possible exception of range, the "Super Viper" is even more limited than the SH (it has none of the limited LO features of the SH, for instance, and its AESA radar is not in the same class as the APG-79).
Even more damning to the arguments advanced by the likes of ELP and LO is the following:
"In a June 27 letter to Parliament, de Vries suggests that while Australia and the U.S. Navy are ordering Super Hornets, they are doing so 'until the JSF will be available in sufficient numbers.' He states that the Dutch have no need for an interim solution as they plan to buy the F-35 early.
'Based on how Americans and Australians regard the Super Hornet in relation to JSF, and based on the results of our evaluation in 2002, the F/A-18E/F cannot be considered as a relevant option for F-16 replacement in our country,' de Vries says."
So on the one hand we have LM, the U.S. government, the Australian government, and the Dutch government, all of which are privy to sensitive and classified information, vouching for the supremacy of the F-35 versus a 4.5 Gen aircraft like the SH, as fine as the latter may be. And yet desk jockeys like ELP and LO, who have no access to anyting but open-source material, speculate wildly about the alleged shortcomings of the F-35. C'mon, folks! Get real! This would be like me arguing with my mechanic about how to fix my carburator, when I don't even know where the carburator is or what it does!
Short of being bribed by LM, I see no reason why the Netherlands or Australia or any other allied nation which is considering purchasing the F-35 would go and do such a supposedly bone-headed thing unless they understood the F-35 to be clearly superior to the alternatives, and these include the SH, the F-16E/F, the Typhoon Tranche 2 and the Rafale. Again, the only airplane out there that can best the F-35 is the F-22, and that one is, currently, off the table for nations other than the U.S. |
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LowObservable
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Posted: Jul 03, 2008 - 01:55 AM
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Your car probably doesn't HAVE a carburator, unless you're a collector.
One certainly would expect the Dutch defense ministry to know lots about the JSF. Indeed, they get it from their MoD experts, who present charts (sample below) which are drawn directly from the same LM unclassified briefs that we all see.
And seeing that the "big and heavy" Super Hornet weighs less than the JSF, I'm not sure about the minister's advisers.
And since neither ELP nor I have advocated the Super Hornet as a JSF substitute, anyway, I fail to see how this is "damning" to our arguments.
I wish some of the posters on this board would learn to read, but that might expose them to ideas. |
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dwightlooi
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Posted: Jul 03, 2008 - 02:28 AM
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LowObservable wrote:
And seeing that the "big and heavy" Super Hornet weighs less than the JSF, I'm not sure about the minister's advisers.
The F-18E weighs about 1 ton (2,200 lbs) more than the F-35A empty. This is despite being able to about 2 tons (4,400 lbs) less internal fuel and missing the Lightning's two large internal weapon bays with a capacity for 2.6 tons (5,700 lbs) of ordnance. The Super Hornet is also about 3m longer and 3m wider than the F-35A.
The F-35 is extremely compact and light for what it packs. In fact, it is probably the most space and mass efficient jet fighter ever built in the history of aviation. |
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That_Engine_Guy
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Posted: Jul 03, 2008 - 02:34 AM
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Twin engines have always been expensive. Even since the P-38/P-51 days.
Mustang (P51D) $54,000 each
Lightning (P-38L) $114,000 each
F-16/F-15 was the same way...
Eagle (F-15E) $31.1 million (fiscal 98 constant dollars)
Viper (F-16C) $18.8 million (fiscal 98 constant dollars)
Of that cost, consider $5 million is for each F100-PW-229 installed. 1x or 2x
Now consider maintenance costs of twin engines.
(This is a very rough estimate to illustrate the single/twin engine debate)
"In fiscal year (FY) 2002, the Air Force spent $899 million on acquiring or maintaining F100 engines" the USAF has about 3300 F100s, that equates to around $272.5K PER F100 engine.
So over the life of say 25 years for a single engine fighter, you'll spend about $6.8 million on engine maintenance costs above the $5 million purchase price of a single engine. Say an $11.8 million life cycle costs for JUST the engine.
(We won't discuss fuel $ costs as the price keeps doubling every 2 years lately... )
Over the 25 year life of a twin engine fighter you'll spend about $13.6 million on maintenance costs above the $10 million purchase price for both engines. So now we have a live cycle cost of $23.6 million for two engines.
Now consider a fleet of 100 aircraft. $1.18 billion for a single engine fleet or $2.36 billion for a twin engined fleet; again not counting costs for the larger aircraft or using twice the fuel at the spiraling costs. As you can see you can "just double" the costs when it comes to the engines.
The more things change the more they stay the same...
Raptor (F-22A) $142 million
Lightening II (F-35A) $58.7 million
The "new" F119 is about $11M each from what I've heard. The F135 should be similar in price, but may be a bit more if there are more advanced materials in it. (And I'm sure there will be )
On the other hand, both the F119 and the F135 are suppose to have less parts and be cheaper/easier to maintain than the F100 series engines. (At almost $1 Billion in F100 maintenance PER year do you blame anyone for that!?!)
Jet engines aren't cheap, they are some of the most highly engineered, highest tech machines on earth today. IMO they are more advance than rocket engines as they accumulate countless hours and cycles of operation over many decades of use and can weather the associated wear, tear, and maintenance. (Space Shuttle Main Engines get used about 8 minutes at a time every 3 or 4 months and are pulled, inspected, and refurbished after each flight! )
If I were buying my own personal Gen-V aircraft to fly for fun, I'd be on order list for a Lightening II with a SINGLE shiny-new F135-PW-100 motor!
Keep 'em flyin' (singles or twins)
TEG
(Edit -grammar - sorry) |
Last edited by That_Engine_Guy on Jul 03, 2008 - 02:38 AM; edited 2 times in total
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Obamanite
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Posted: Jul 03, 2008 - 02:35 AM
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[quote="LowObservable"]Your car probably doesn't HAVE a carburator, unless you're a collector.[/qoute]
Exactly. I know nothing about cars. It probably has a fuel injector. I think...
Quote:
One certainly would expect the Dutch defense ministry to know lots about the JSF. Indeed, they get it from their MoD experts, who present charts (sample below) which are drawn directly from the same LM unclassified briefs that we all see.
How is this surprising? Or indicative of what the Dutch MoD knows? As you wrote, this is what they present to the public. Surely you don't expect them to present their own classified assesments, do you?
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And seeing that the "big and heavy" Super Hornet weighs less than the JSF, I'm not sure about the minister's advisers.
It does, in fact, weigh less. Empty weight of more than 30,000 lbs. vs. about 28,000 lbs. for the F-35A. Moreover, it does take up more space. It is also considerably longer than the F-35.
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And since neither ELP nor I have advocated the Super Hornet as a JSF substitute, anyway, I fail to see how this is "damning" to our arguments.
So, if not the F-35C for the U.S. Navy, what is the alternative if not the SH??? And I am quite certain you, ELP and others have said the USAF could do with larger numbers of F-22s and new-buy F-16E/Fs and forgo the F-35 entirely. |
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LMAggie
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Posted: Jul 03, 2008 - 03:30 AM
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LowObservable wrote:
One certainly would expect the Dutch defense ministry to know lots about the JSF. Indeed, they get it from their MoD experts, who present charts (sample below) which are drawn directly from the same LM unclassified briefs that we all see.
You are not privy to the same information that the Dutch MoD is...I know that for a fact. You make some good arguments, but stick to what you know. |
_________________ “Its not the critic who counts..The credit belongs to the man who does actually strive to do the deeds..”
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geogen
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Posted: Jul 03, 2008 - 05:29 AM
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Ob, I respect your enthusiastic support for a truly fine future F-35 export aircraft model, but one needs to make a more realistic analysis from the posted article.
1) Folded-winged super-hornets couldn't fit inside a NATO shelter?
2) Super-hornets per deselection in 2001-2002, don't have adequate modern self-protection and sensors today (and in future upgrades) as compared to EF, Rafale, Gripen and F-16E/F today?
3) Let's talk about delivery schedules... when could RNLAF expect full complement of the above said aircraft, in comparison to full delivery of F-35 orders?
Perhaps an extension period for current RNLAF legacy fleet is necessary afterall, therefor (such as would be the case for RAAF), if selecting F-35? (and such an F-16 life extension as some in NL govt are in fact supporting?)
Personal note: the F-35A should have been independently developed ahead of B,C (under the official program). Best 'off-the-shelf' avionics/computing/systems should have expedited the basic concept from the start with buyer selected 'open-architecture upgrade' options available according to future needs and means. It should have been ready for full rate production by 2009-2010, to fill appropriate world-wide re-capitalization requirements on a timely, competitive basis. |
_________________ The Super-Viper has not yet begun to concede.
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Conan
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Posted: Jul 03, 2008 - 08:23 AM
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LowObservable wrote:
One certainly would expect the Dutch defense ministry to know lots about the JSF. Indeed, they get it from their MoD experts, who present charts (sample below) which are drawn directly from the same LM unclassified briefs that we all see.
You think that professional military forces make their capability acquisition decisions based on open sourced information?
Uh-huh.  |
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Conan
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Posted: Jul 03, 2008 - 08:27 AM
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Quote:
According to Jack de Vries, the Dutch state secretary for defense procurement, the F/A-18E/F had been considered as a candidate in 2001-2002 but was at that time deselected because of limitations in range, self-protection and sensors.
1. F/A-18E/F didn't have APG-79 AESA, ATFLIR, JHMCS or IRST in 2001/2. They do now...
2. F/A-18E/F didn't have a digital RWR, a fibre optic towed decoy in 2001/2. They do now. They also have a new internally carried self-protection jammer...
3. Range? I think you'll find the SH compares quite well in range compared to an F-16... |
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Obamanite
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Posted: Jul 03, 2008 - 10:49 AM
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Geogen, I'll try to answer your questions to the best of my ability. Mind you, all I know about the SH and F-35 is open-source
Quote:
1) Folded-winged super-hornets couldn't fit inside a NATO shelter?
If one is to believe the Dutch - and I can't imagine they would have any reason for lying - apparently not. The limitation may not have to do with span but length, as the SH is nearly 10 ft. longer than the F-35.
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2) Super-hornets per deselection in 2001-2002, don't have adequate modern self-protection and sensors today (and in future upgrades) as compared to EF, Rafale, Gripen and F-16E/F today?
I would have to imagine that the Dutch - unless outrageously near-sighted and downright dumb - would have considered all the upgrades that the SH was, at the time, soon slated to receive, including the most important, which was the introduction of the APG-79. It was well known at the time that by this time (2008) the SH would be a much improved aircraft compared to its status then. Even then, the SH does not have the sensor-fusion, the EOTS, the DAS or the EW capabilities of the F-35, not to mention the most important self-defense measure, namely VLO. The EF, Rafale, Gripen and F-16E/F suffer from the same fundamental defficiencies, and I expect the Dutch MoD to come to similar conclusions regarding those aircraft as it did about the SH.
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3) Let's talk about delivery schedules... when could RNLAF expect full complement of the above said aircraft, in comparison to full delivery of F-35 orders?
As stated rather clearly in the article, the Dutch MoD is comfortable with the delivery schedule for the F-35 as it expects to take deliveries beginning with the early lots of the aircraft.
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Perhaps an extension period for current RNLAF legacy fleet is necessary afterall, therefor (such as would be the case for RAAF), if selecting F-35? (and such an F-16 life extension as some in NL govt are in fact supporting?)
See above. Also, it wasn't that long ago that the MLU for the Viper was completed, and it is a highly capable combat platform for the time being until such time as the F-35 becomes available. |
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Obamanite
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Posted: Jul 03, 2008 - 11:04 AM
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Conan, regarding your comments:
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1. F/A-18E/F didn't have APG-79 AESA, ATFLIR, JHMCS or IRST in 2001/2. They do now...
See my response to Geogen above. The Dutch would have known full well in 2001-2002 that the EF was due for such developments.
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2. F/A-18E/F didn't have a digital RWR, a fibre optic towed decoy in 2001/2. They do now. They also have a new internally carried self-protection jammer...
Same answer as above.
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3. Range? I think you'll find the SH compares quite well in range compared to an F-16...
To which F-16 are you referring? Yes, compared to a plain vanilla F-16, but not to the F-16E/F or I equipped with 2 x 600 Gal. tanks, one x 300 Gal. tank, full internal fuel and two x conformals. In that configuration the 16E/F or I range is almost that of an F-15E if not longer, depending on stores loading. Just ask the Israelis, who may soon put it to good use vs. Iran... |
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LMAggie
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Posted: Jul 03, 2008 - 01:51 PM
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geogen wrote:
Personal note: the F-35A should have been independently developed ahead of B,C (under the official program). Best 'off-the-shelf' avionics/computing/systems should have expedited the basic concept from the start with buyer selected 'open-architecture upgrade' options available according to future needs and means. It should have been ready for full rate production by 2009-2010, to fill appropriate world-wide re-capitalization requirements on a timely, competitive basis.
If that had happened the F-35A would have been a much poorer design that it is now. The F-35B taught the F-35A/C some very beneficial lessons aside from SWAT. |
_________________ “Its not the critic who counts..The credit belongs to the man who does actually strive to do the deeds..”
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LowObservable
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Posted: Jul 03, 2008 - 06:01 PM
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And I am quite certain you, ELP and others have said the USAF could do with larger numbers of F-22s and new-buy F-16E/Fs and forgo the F-35 entirely.
Quote or GTFO, you troll. Stop making things up.
This topic is basically moot since the Rhino has never been a leading candidate in these nations. |
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Conan
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Posted: Jul 04, 2008 - 04:58 AM
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Obamanite wrote:
Conan, regarding your comments:
Quote:
1. F/A-18E/F didn't have APG-79 AESA, ATFLIR, JHMCS or IRST in 2001/2. They do now...
See my response to Geogen above. The Dutch would have known full well in 2001-2002 that the EF was due for such developments.
Quote:
2. F/A-18E/F didn't have a digital RWR, a fibre optic towed decoy in 2001/2. They do now. They also have a new internally carried self-protection jammer...
Same answer as above.
Quote:
3. Range? I think you'll find the SH compares quite well in range compared to an F-16...
To which F-16 are you referring? Yes, compared to a plain vanilla F-16, but not to the F-16E/F or I equipped with 2 x 600 Gal. tanks, one x 300 Gal. tank, full internal fuel and two x conformals. In that configuration the 16E/F or I range is almost that of an F-15E if not longer, depending on stores loading. Just ask the Israelis, who may soon put it to good use vs. Iran...
I'm fairly certain the SH can carry external drop tanks too...
I was comparing a "clean" SH to a "clean" F-16A/BC/D.
As to the sensor issue, I'm sure the Dutch would have been aware that a spiral upgrade path existed for the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet.
I am NOT so sure that the Dutch, in these comments, were comparing the APG-79 to the APG-68, the ATFLIR to the Lantirn and JHMCS to total lack of JHMCS (at the time) however...
What they WOULD have been comparing was Block 1 Super Hornets with APG-73 and Nitehawk pods, which stacked against the "sunk" investment F-16's they had and still have, is not such a good deal.
Nothing whatsoever in that article suggests they evaluated F/A-18E/F Block II+ aircraft however, which are an entirely different kettle of fish from Block I Supers...
Or do you honestly think the Dutch assessed the Block II+ Super as having an inferior sensor capability to an MLU'd Dutch F-16A? |
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geogen
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Posted: Jul 04, 2008 - 05:18 AM
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Conan,
Your remarks are most valid and rational. And anyone reviewing the article first posted should concur with them vis-a-vis, the SH.
Simply, the article referred to here should be thrown out and re-written. It should basically compare pros and cons with F-35 and the others listed, with the inclusion of totally comprable and capable SH, unlike the article's prejudiced (or corrupted) conclusions.
A 2010-2012 Super Hornet, maxed out with cool off-the-shelf stuff, can go head to head in any competition with F-16E/F, Tranch3, Gripen II, Rafale.
Perhaps the schedule alone of total unit delivery expectations would be a prime argument for going with a 4.5 model, versus waiting until 2020+ for full delivery of F-35 orders. |
_________________ The Super-Viper has not yet begun to concede.
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