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Veteran Joined: Mar 11, 2008 Posts: 349 Status: Offline

I tend to agree with your take on this, Beazz, especially with Gates as Secy, imo. The wild card may actually be Obama in office, directing his Secy oD to initiate 'sales' in order to win some political capital from interest groups (to prove in no uncertain material terms his support for the state) and also as a face-saving incentive for making bold peace settlements? Just an hypothesis perhaps but it sounds as plausible as the next guy's 'speculation', we all indeed make here. Very Happy

I'm actually fairly pro-F-22 (based on my assessments of the public information available and due to USAF's apparent request for more) and I'd support at least 100 more and even be willing to support a FB-22 (or tranche II) R&D program.

And again, for Beazz, I think you are mistaking my views re: the F-35 (and I don't try or mean to speak for Elp or be even lumped in with his exact views (I confess I haven't really studied them in particular). I'm in fact accepting/supporting the fact that US and foreign partners will need to recapitalize to at least some extent with the F-35, regardless of my more comrehensive viewpoints. At any rate, you want bet a 6-pack, eh? Well first off, to clarify things between us, you'll have to nail down a specific estimate of total US production rate and total including International rate of production, by say 2018 in order to get me to bite... Your saying that it will merely be up and running fine and a first rate fighter, will probably continue to just make this circular debate get fuzzier and fuzzier, imo Smile

But if you're saying that in 2017-2018, there will remain the currently scheduled US orders for 130/yr F-35 and 220-230 total international production (including US) ordered, then you got a bet! My estimates are closer to 75/yr for US total and... I actually wish not to estimate total international sales out of respect for foreign affairs, if you can accept that. So perhaps closest to US only sales wins! (You can buy me 4 litre of Gerolsteiner Sprudel water)! Wink

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geogen wrote:

I tend to agree with your take on this, Beazz, especially with Gates as Secy, imo. The wild card may actually be Obama in office, directing his Secy oD to initiate 'sales' in order to win some political capital from interest groups (to prove in no uncertain material terms his support for the state) and also as a face-saving incentive for making bold peace settlements? Just an hypothesis perhaps but it sounds as plausible as the next guy's 'speculation', we all indeed make here. Very Happy

I'm actually fairly pro-F-22 (based on my assessments of the public information available and due to USAF's apparent request for more) and I'd support at least 100 more and even be willing to support a FB-22 (or tranche II) R&D program.

And again, for Beazz, I think you are mistaking my views re: the F-35 (and I don't try or mean to speak for Elp or be even lumped in with his exact views (I confess I haven't really studied them in particular). I'm in fact accepting/supporting the fact that US and foreign partners will need to recapitalize to at least some extent with the F-35, regardless of my more comrehensive viewpoints. At any rate, you want bet a 6-pack, eh? Well first off, to clarify things between us, you'll have to nail down a specific estimate of total US production rate and total including International rate of production, by say 2018 in order to get me to bite... Your saying that it will merely be up and running fine and a first rate fighter, will probably continue to just make this circular debate get fuzzier and fuzzier, imo Smile

But if you're saying that in 2017-2018, there will remain the currently scheduled US orders for 130/yr F-35 and 220-230 total international production (including US) ordered, then you got a bet! My estimates are closer to 75/yr for US total and... I actually wish not to estimate total international sales out of respect for foreign affairs, if you can accept that. So perhaps closest to US only sales wins! (You can buy me 4 litre of Gerolsteiner Sprudel water)! Wink

Hi Geogen

well, hopefully we will not be talking about Obama doin anything come next Jan. The thought of him runnin this country scares me for real. But if he were to get elected, and anything is possible, I got a feeling he will all the sudden find the real world in which we reside is not the same as that fantasy one he seems to be engulfed in and those ruthless killers he wishes to sit down and have tea with are exactly what he has heard, and thats they are ruthless thugs and no amount of talking is gonna make them anything else.

But who knows. I can only imagine the reaction SA, Egypt, UAE, to name a few will have and the ink will not be dry on the contracts with Israel before they are demanding it as well. Then what? I'm nervous as hell about Turkey gettin the F35 regardless if they are NATO or not! I can only imagine those other so called Arab ally states getting it, or God Forbid the F22!!!

But even if the current partners seem to slack off on their buys, their does seem to be other interested partys with I think deeper pockets like the Israelis ( which will buy with the money we give em so wut do they care how much it is? lol ) , Japenese and South Koreans to name a few to take up the slack if that is what we wish. And the current crop of *partners* have already been doing nothing but whining and sniveling about the price, which is no doubt a ploy to try and get the US to take up the slack for them as always. Ya know they may have to actually pay for the defense of thier own countrys and thats starting to bother them it seems. So bring on these other FMS countrys that actually have, and are willing to spend the necessary money to get the best products they can get and let the crybaby Euros buy their super duper EF or the Rafael lol More power to em!!

But here's the deal. As for the foreign buyers, I honestly don't care if they get 1 a/c and would prefer they get exactly none. Yea that aint gonna happen, but thats my preference. But my estimate is the US will be getting 110 a/c yearly (minimum) regardless of the price and we will be getting 2200+ total. There just is no way for the USAF to replace the ageing 15/16 fleet and that not happen. Unless the USAF is going to openly downsize, which in the current world climate of China modernizing as fast as they can steal things, Russia pouring money back into their military, and the world about to come apart at the seams, we have no choice but to do what we have to in order to get what we need and I think we will. The Navy/USMC can keep pace with new SH's and the EA18's if we need to cut back on the F35 buys and I bet that will happen before the USAF takes the hit.

Not to mention that cute lil stunt that seems to be becoming more and more popular with the services of submitting their *unfunded requirements list* and they are getting quiet a bit of it! They even have 6 extra F35's for 09 not as part of the budget request but within this other gizmo and it seems they will get a lot of it. That list has apparently climbed to over $30BIL for the 09 physcal year btw! http://pogoarchives.org/m/ns/c17/fy09-url-20080201.pdf So I feel pretty safe with over 2200 and minimum 110 per year Wink

If that is mainly USAF and USMC STVOL ones it seems we will be doing great. Wink

Thats my totally shooting from the hip guestimate. See ya in 10 years to collect Wink

I would say we would even get to see the F35 battle tested by then when us and Israel take out Irans nuke sites, but well, the F22 is gonna get that all to itself just before GW leaves office! Wink

The Israelis will have to use the old F15/16 and maybe a few F117's we snunk in there instead of that old folks home in Arizona ya think??? Sorry, couldnt resist Wink

)

And wut the heck kind of water is Gerolsteiner Sprudel? Water with a name like that cant be safe to drink can it? Wink

)

Beazz

Elite Joined: Apr 26, 2004 Posts: 1175 Status: Offline

Gerolstein.....just North of Bitburg......where they make good beer!

Veteran Joined: Mar 11, 2008 Posts: 349 Status: Offline

Purplehaze wrote:

Gerolstein.....just North of Bitburg......where they make good beer!

I must confess I didn't do much taste testing the couple of times I toured through DE, and did more 'tasting' in Belgium. So I'll take your word for it, although the Gerolstein (glass bottle) is my fav all time.

Remove the support of USA, and in a decade no more Israel... there is no oil, no democracy plus a bunch of fundamentalists in power... reminds me of afganistan in a different scale, plus some nukes...

stamatisg2002 wrote:

Remove the support of USA, and in a decade no more Israel... there is no oil, no democracy plus a bunch of fundamentalists in power... reminds me of afganistan in a different scale, plus some nukes...

Yea right. Maybe you should read a little more about Israel. They are as of 2006 the worlds 5th leading defense exporter behind only US, Russia, Britain and France. They make their own tanks, missiles, assault weapons, military satelites, UAV's ( ahead of US in that area last I checked) and the list goes on. The only reason they dont produce their own Fighters is it was not economical. But if forced to they certainly have the ability to do so. Most all the weapons of their US a/c have been made to Israeli standards by Israelis as well.

Last I also checked the support of the US has not stopped their neighbors from goin to war with them. They have tried 3 or 4 times right? Last I checked they all got their collective butts handed to them on a silver platter each time without the US stepping in to help militarily. They took what was once dry dessert and turned it into lush productive farmland. What land they have gave back to thier neighbors has went right back to being useless desert.

Their democracy is not so unlike ours. They have elections that are free and binding, unlike any of their neighbors. Their leaders are subject to the same laws as the common Israeli, unlike the leaders of the neighbors who are subject to NO law. Matter of fact, those leaders ARE the law. You commit a crime in Israel and get caught, you go to jail. Crime is a badge of honor to their neighbors. So don't what you base your no democracy statement on.

And Afghanistan huh? Don't know what to say to that. Kind of like if someone picked up an apple and said hmm..this apple reminds me of a catfish.. what can ya say to such an ignorant statement? Nothing really, so just let it go and let the person think as they wish.

The fact there is NO oil is one thing that really distinguishes Israel from its neighbors. They made that country the superb little country it is today WITHOUT oil money. None of their neighbors have even come close even with oil money flowing in by the barrel full, so to speak!!

So maybe you're just an Israeli hater huh? You seem to have nothing to support your ridiculous claims. Matter of fact, all the evidence directly contradicts every single thing you said. I think it is safe to say, Israel will not be going anywhere anytime soon, with or without US support.

Have a nice day,
Beazz

Newbie Joined: Jun 11, 2008 Posts: 1 Status: Offline

F-22 Air Dominance fighter cannot be less than anyother fighter like SU-30 and SU-47 and Mig-31.It is superior than any other fighter and u.s have to not gave the Raptor to Israel Confused

As I said before, there is NO threat that justifies giving the Raptor to Israel (and in case you guys didn't know, that is what we do for Israel. We gift them A LOT of hardware at US taxpayer's expense). They are MORE than fine now and for the foreseeable future.

vertical

Veteran Joined: Mar 11, 2008 Posts: 349 Status: Offline

I concur Vertical, that at this point no threat (numeric or qualitative) would justify demanding F-22 sales to Israel. In fact, it could be assessed that such a unilateral supply of Raptor could exacerbate high-threat tactical proliferation to regional air forces. Free-wheeling 4.5 gen proliferation is definitely something that needs to be countered, but discouraged first. Thus, it could be suggested that behind-the-scene diplomacy could actively attempt such understanding of non-proliferation. If regional threats nonetheless came into being, an undesired consequence could be possible Raptors being sold in response. Just my take.

Elite Joined: Oct 21, 2005 Posts: 757 Status: Offline

Quote:

Israel pushes for F-22

Again?

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Israel pushes for F-22