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Document title: F-16.net - So crazy it might work... :: F-16.net :: The Ultimate F-16 Reference
Original URL: http://www.f-16.net/f-16_forum_viewtopic-t-10383-view-next-sid-f2d9fb8149a645af18a6c8859f52c59b.html
Printed on: 07 September 2008

Forum: F-35 Lightning II

So crazy it might work...



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Obamanite
PostPosted: Jul 06, 2008 - 05:39 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Yet another GAO report on why the Pentagon's acquisition plans - or lack thereof - are in a mess. Haven't they always been? I've been reading this stuff since the early 80s and nothing ever changes...

Quote:
GAO says Pentagon failing to commit weapon funds
By Donna Borak, AP Business Writer | July 3, 2008

WASHINGTON --Increased costs and delays in delivering vital weapons to soldiers in war zones are due partly to a lack of full funding for those systems, according to a government audit.

In a follow-on report released Thursday, the Government Accountability Office reviewed 20 of the Pentagon's 95 major weapon programs, including Lockheed Martin Corp.'s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, the Army's $160 billion combat modernization program led by Boeing Co. and SAIC Inc., and Northrop Grumman Corp.'s Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicle.

Among its findings, the GAO said more than 75 percent of the programs reviewed were not fully funded in the Pentagon's long-term investments strategy. To compensate for funding shortfalls, the Pentagon shifted money between programs, deferred work and associated costs into future years, or reduced the quantity of its purchase.

"Ultimately, such reactive practices obscure true program costs and contribute to the instability of many programs," the GAO said.

The Pentagon estimates it will cost $1.6 trillion to develop and buy major weapon systems, $335 billion of which is expected to be spent over the next five years. The 20 programs reviewed by the GAO between June 2007 and May 2008 represent more than one-third of the Pentagon's estimates.

The department's "flawed funding process is largely driven by decision makers' willingness to accept unrealistic cost estimates and DOD's commitment to more programs than it can support," the GAO said in its report, which echoed findings released last year.

In responding to a draft of the latest report, the Defense Department said while it has control over its programming and budget process, it does not govern the amount included in future years budget planning or congressional appropriations.

"At times, these external influences will also cause turbulence in program execution," according to the Pentagon.

Northrop Grumman spokesman Randy Belote said the company needed more time to analyze the GAO report before commenting. Representatives from Boeing, SAIC and Lockheed Martin had no immediate comment Thursday afternoon.


So I have this crazy idea. Go to four- or five -year budgets. Not even multi-year, where funding is still allocated on a yearly basis. Figure out those things you are sure you are going to be buying and allocate funds in one lump sum, creating economies of scale. By that I mean, rather than buy, say, 100 F-35s average per year over five years and, say, 12 tankers per year, pay up-front for 500 F-35s and 60 tankers. So, one year you fund your fighter requirements, next year you take care of the tankers, year after the missiles, etc. This way you get rid of "funding instability" and reduce risk for the contractors and subcontractors. A lot of the cost associated with these programs is purely a factor of not being able to plan ahead of time and issues involving supply chains and what not, with some lond-lead items requiring orders years in advance, as with a carrier. This is all so logical, though, that I don't think anyone in goverment could actually wrap their minds around it...
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SnakeHandler
PostPosted: Jul 06, 2008 - 09:16 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Too logical. They'll never go through with it.
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geogen
PostPosted: Jul 06, 2008 - 09:30 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Wouldn't you also have to be hit up by IRS then, for a 4-5 yr lump-sum equivalent taxes out of your next year's salary?

Further, with all that fixed cash perhaps speculative material costs might see some inflationary pressures as well as productivity seen to suffer somewhat? Maybe not..

But it wouldn't hurt for all of us to wrap our collective tax payers' minds around a very Keen GAO quote read here re: DoD: that in part, its "...flawed funding process is largely driven by decision makers' willingness to accept unrealistic cost estimates..." This should ring a bell to all those debating things such as 'F-35' program estimates, for instance.

Especially with the proposed low-ball, price-fixed foreign dumping recently ... The US taxpayers (and Services of course) will have to hold their breath for now to offset any such socialist-oriented transacted policies.

Confused

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LMAggie
PostPosted: Jul 07, 2008 - 03:26 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Quote:
Increased costs and delays in delivering vital weapons to soldiers in war zones are due partly to a lack of full funding for those systems, according to a government audit.


A-MEN!

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LowObservable
PostPosted: Jul 07, 2008 - 03:48 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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or DOY!
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sferrin
PostPosted: Jul 07, 2008 - 04:19 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Obamanite wrote:
By that I mean, rather than buy, say, 100 F-35s average per year over five years and, say, 12 tankers per year, pay up-front for 500 F-35s and 60 tankers. So, one year you fund your fighter requirements, next year you take care of the tankers, year after the missiles, etc. This way you get rid of "funding instability" and reduce risk for the contractors and subcontractors. A lot of the cost associated with these programs is purely a factor of not being able to plan ahead of time and issues involving supply chains and what not, with some lond-lead items requiring orders years in advance, as with a carrier. This is all so logical, though, that I don't think anyone in goverment could actually wrap their minds around it...


Well you see during year three Senator Joe Blow who has missiles built in his state decides the USAF doesn't really need those tankers (because he's smarter than the airforce "and I really need some votes") and so much for the five-year plan. Times that by everybody with an agenda and you'll see why the budget will never be anything besides FUBARed.
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USMilFan
PostPosted: Jul 08, 2008 - 08:57 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Quote:
So I have this crazy idea. Go to four- or five -year budgets. Not even multi-year, where funding is still allocated on a yearly basis. Figure out those things you are sure you are going to be buying and allocate funds in one lump sum, creating economies of scale. By that I mean, rather than buy, say, 100 F-35s average per year over five years and, say, 12 tankers per year, pay up-front for 500 F-35s and 60 tankers. So, one year you fund your fighter requirements, next year you take care of the tankers, year after the missiles, etc. This way you get rid of "funding instability" and reduce risk for the contractors and subcontractors. A lot of the cost associated with these programs is purely a factor of not being able to plan ahead of time and issues involving supply chains and what not, with some lond-lead items requiring orders years in advance, as with a carrier. This is all so logical, though, that I don't think anyone in goverment could actually wrap their minds around it...


Greetings, Obamanite,

If the purpose of your proposed plan is to provide an interest-free loan to defense contractors, then your plan is a good one. Of course, it is the taxpayers who would be effectively subsidizing the defense industry. Why not just raise the price of goods & services delivered instead? The actual effect of either alternative is the same.

Unfortunately, there is no such thing as certainty in any multiyear budgeting process since the process occurs in a fluid environment whose only constant is change itself. Geogen astutely identifies cost inflation as one example. Many other factors are equally uncontrollable; yet their effects force continual adjustment in budget plans, especially longer-term ones.

Additionally, I doubt very much whether economies of scale depend on when defense contractors are paid for goods & services rendered. The vast majority of defense contractors, after all, have full access to investment capital in the capital markets. If scale economies require additional capital, the average defense contractor can typically acquire such capital in the usual way.

The relevant question is not one of funding per se; ultimately, it’s whether Congress & the Administration commit to buying a given weapons system or not. If so, how many to buy, and when? That’s where the uncertainty lies. When actual payment is made is irrelevant.
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